Published Feb 15, 2020
Tiger Tipoff Preview: Auburn
Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
Staff
Twitter
@mitchell4d

Prior to each of the major non-conference games and every SEC game for the Tigers, we will post the Tiger Tipoff Preview to get you set for the matchup. Here is our preview of today's matchup against Auburn.

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                                         TIP TIME INFORMATION

Missouri (11-13) vs Auburn (22-2)

WHEN: 5:00 p.m.

WHERE: Mizzou Arena

TV: ESPN 2

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Auburn leads 6-4 (Auburn won both meetings last season)

KenPom Prediction: Auburn 71-66

                                       THE STARTING LINEUPS

Auburn Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Isaac Okoro

FR

6-6

13.1

4.8

2.1

Anfernee McLemore

SR

6-7

7.9

4.6

0.5

Austin Wiley

SR

6-11

10.0

9.4

0.6

J'Von McCormick

SR

6-0

11.4

4.3

4.8

Samir Doughty

SR

6-4

16.0

4.1

2.5

Mizzou Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Dru Smith

JR

6-3

11.7

4.1

4.1

Xavier Pinson

SO

6-3

8.6

2.2

2.7

Kobe Brown

FR

6-7

5.7

3.1

0.6

Reed Nikko

SR

6-10

4.5

3.5

0.5

Javon Pickett

SO

6-5

7.6

3.9

1.5

                                                  BY THE NUMBERS

Statistical Matchup
MizzouCategoryAuburn

66.5

PPG

80.2

64.9

PPG Allowed

70.6

40.8

Field Goal %

43.6

30.6

Three-Point %

31.2

+0.8

Rebound Margin

+6.6

14.6

Turnovers

13.0

162

Offensive Efficiency Rank

28

91

Defensive Efficiency Rank

57

252

Tempo

162

48

Strength of Schedule

60

                                        MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Limit fouls. Missouri is one of the most foul-prone teams in the nation. The Tigers commit an average of 20.8 fouls per game and foul on 29.9 percent of opponent possessions. Those numbers rank 328th and 343rd, respectively, out of 353 Division I teams. Unfortunately, Auburn is one of the best teams at getting to the free throw line. Auburn ranks fifth nationally in free throw attempts per field goal attempt and third in made free throws per game (18.2). Missouri needs to maintain its defensive edge without fouling — easier said than done — but the home Tigers cannot afford to put Auburn on the free throw line 30-plus times, as they have in each of their past four games.

2. Control the boards. Asked Friday what's been different about his team in the past two games (a home win over Arkansas and a close loss at LSU) versus the prior two (consecutive blowouts at South Carolina and Texas A&M), Cuonzo Martin cited rebounding as the biggest factor. Missouri lost the rebounding battle to South Carolina then got dominated on the glass, 45 to 27, by Texas A&M. But the Tigers have won the rebounding margin in each of the past two games by a total of 20. Missouri will need to extend that streak to three games if it's going to keep pace with Auburn, one of the best offensive rebounding teams In the country. Auburn grabs 35.7 percent of its own misses, which ranks 12th nationally. A Missouri team that has often struggled to score this season can't afford to give Auburn's explosive offense many second chances.

3. Get good games from the guards. Missouri will once again be without two key players in Jeremiah Tilmon and Mark Smith. That places extra importance on the starting backcourt, Xavier Pinson and Dru Smith, sparking the offense. Pinson and Smith are the engines that make Missouri's offense go, and over the past two games, the duo has combined to score 32 points, grab 11 rebounds, dish eight assists and commit four turnovers per game. If Missouri can get that level of production again Saturday, it will have a chance. If not, it's hard to see Missouri keeping pace with Auburn's offense.

                                     POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION

There's certainly a chance Auburn could get hot and blow Missouri out in this game, but Auburn's two losses this season have both come on the road and Missouri has played much better at home, so we think this at least stays competitive. Plus, while Missouri is shorthanded, Auburn might be without star freshman Isaac Okoro, which would certainly help Missouri's chances. The problem for Missouri is Auburn simply doesn't lose close games. The visiting Tigers are 9-0 in games decided by six points or less and 5-0 in overtime this season. We believe that trend continues with another close win in Mizzou Arena.

FINAL SCORE: Auburn 70, Mizzou 65