Tiger Tipoff Preview: Butler

Missouri (4-1) vs Butler (5-0)

WHEN: 6:00 p.m. Central

WHERE: Sprint Center (18,972) Kansas City, MO

TV: ESPNU (Jason Benetti, Bryce Drew)

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Tied 3-3 (Mizzou won 64-60 in 1979)

KenPom Prediction: Missouri 64-63

1. Keep locking it down. Missouri has been one of the nation's best teams on defense. Nobody has scored more than 56 points on the Tigers in regulation and it has kept them in the game even when the offense has struggled. Butler is the best offensive team the Tigers have faced. They rank in the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency and are shooting nearly 50% from the floor. They commit just 8.2 turnovers per game. They play even slower than the Tigers, but are incredibly efficient in the half court.

2. Make some outside shots. Mark Smith is shooting 39.4% from three point range. Dru Smith is the only other Tiger better than 30% (30.8). It's not yet time to hit the panic button, but Missouri does need to see some shots start to go down. Cuonzo Martin said on Friday that he wasn't yet worried about the shooting because he thinks the Tigers are taking good shots. Chief among the players Mizzou needs to start making some is Torrence Watson who was 0-6 against Morehead State and has made just 20.8% from deep this year. If Watson can't hit a jump shot, it's tough to keep putting him out there for major minutes.

3. Win the battle of the stars. The best player for Butler is the smallest Bulldog, 6-1 Kamar Baldwin. He takes 35% of the team's shots and is nationally ranked in offensive categories across the board. He can shoot it from all over, can get in the lane and does pretty much everything well. He's a huge test for the Tiger defense. Meanwhile, Missouri's most important player is 6-10 Jeremiah Tilmon. He is shooting nearly 70% from the floor and for the first time in his career is drawing as many fouls as he is committing (4.6 per 40 minutes in both categories). Bryce Golden is the only Bulldog taller than 6-7 and he plays about 20 minutes per game. For Missouri to win, Tilmon has to come up big. It's not as simple as Tilmon vs Baldwin, but the one that plays the better game gives his team a big edge.

This is a fascinating game for the Tigers. If they're what they think they are and what fans think they are, they can go a long way toward proving it with a resume-building win here. Missouri is familiar with the building (despite the fact that when asked about playing in the Sprint Center Tilmon didn't realize it was the same building the Tigers faced Kansas in prior to the 2017 season) and should have the crowd behind them. This team lost its only close game this year. The Tigers have been decent but not great in close games. The Bulldogs have the experience that nothing will rattle them, but Missouri should be used to environments like this by now as well. It's a true tossup game. When that's the case, why not pander to the readers and go with the good guys? FINAL SCORE: Missouri 68, Butler 66.