Prior to each of the major non-conference games and every SEC game for the Tigers, we will post the Tiger Tipoff Preview to get you set for the matchup. Here is our preview of today's matchup against Mississippi State.
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TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (14-14) vs Mississippi State (18-10)
WHEN: 2:30 p.m.
WHERE: Mizzou Arena
TV: SEC Network
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Mississippi State leads 8-5 (Bulldogs won 72-45 earlier this season)
KenPom Prediction: Mississippi State 69-68
THE STARTING LINEUPS
BY THE NUMBERS
MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Slow down Reggie Perry. Mississippi State's dynamic big man dominated Missouri in the first matchup between these two teams. Perry scored 23 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in Starkville. He has recorded a double-double in 15 of Mississippi State's 28 games this season and scored in double figures in all but two. No one has been able to totally shut Perry down, but Missouri has to do a better job of making him work for his points. Having Jeremiah Tilmon back in the lineup — and having Reed Nikko playing better defense of late — should help. Mississippi State is 8-2 this season when Perry scores more than 20 points, so keeping him under that mark would seem a good goal.
2. Hang in the rebounding battle. In large part because of Perry, Mississippi State ranks third nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. The Bulldogs dominated Missouri on the glass, 33 to 21, in Starkville. Cuonzo Martin has often said this season that rebounding is an X-factor for his team, and the numbers back that up. Missouri is 10-4 this season when it wins the rebounding battle. The Tigers may not out-rebound Mississippi State overall on Saturday, but they have to keep the margin competitive and, especially, limit second-chance opportunities for the Bulldogs.
3. Try not to hack. This has become an every-game key for Missouri. The Tigers rank seventh-worst nationally in free throw attempts per field goal attempt and and fifth-worst in foul rate. In other words, they're going to foul. But they need to try to rein the hacking in a bit, because free throws have been a key for Mississippi State this season. The Bulldogs rank No. 54 nationally in free throw attempts per game at 21.5, and when they get to the line, they shoot it well, at 75.4 percent. In Mississippi State's last nine games, it is 5-0 when outscoring its opponent at the free throw line and 1-3 when the other team makes more free throws. No one expects Missouri to play a foul-free game, but the Tigers need to keep from putting Mississippi State on the line every possession and also attack and get to the line itself on the other end.
POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION
It seems counterintuitive to pick Missouri to win this matchup after it was thoroughly dismantled in Starkville earlier this season, but the Tigers have been a different team of late. Missouri has rebounded the ball better and attacked the basket more, settling for fewer three-pointers (25 of the Tigers' 49 field goal attempts In the first matchup came from behind the arc — not a winning strategy). It has also played well at home, winning four straight in Mizzou Arena, and Mississippi State has dropped three of its past four on the road. The Bulldogs are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives, so expect their best effort, but if Missouri can keep Perry from taking over the game, we give the home team the edge in a close game.
FINAL SCORE: Missouri 68, Mississippi State 66