Prior to each of the major non-conference games and every SEC game for the Tigers, we will post the Tiger Tipoff Preview to get you set for the matchup. Here is our preview of today's matchup at South Carolina.
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TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (10-10) at South Carolina (12-8)
WHEN: 2:30 p.m.
WHERE: Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, South Carolina
TV: SEC Network
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Tied 5-5 (Teams split two meetings last season)
KenPom Prediction: South Carolina 72-67
THE STARTING LINEUPS
BY THE NUMBERS
MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Attack the basket. One weakness jumps off the page for South Carolina: fouling. The Gamecocks rank second-to-last nationally in foul rate and allow its opponents to score 29.2 percent of their points at the free throw line. That's the highest percentage in the nation. Wednesday, the Gamecocks put Arkansas at the line a whopping 40 times. Missouri has shot the ball very well from the free throw line when it has gotten there this season, including setting an NCAA record by making 54 consecutive free throws, but the Tigers have been prone to stretches of settling for three-pointers and not attacking the rim, like In the first half against Georgia. In the second half, the team got to the free throw line 17 times (versus four In the first), and that was a big part of the comeback. Attacking the basket and getting to the line from the jump will likely be a big determinant in Missouri's success Saturday, especially if three-point specialist Mark Smith can't play. (Cuonzo Martin said Friday he will be a game-time decision.)
2. Defend the paint. Like much of the SEC, South Carolina has not shot the ball well from three-point range this season. Instead, the Gamecocks do the majority of their damage by slashing and getting to the rim. South Carolina has scored 58.3 percent of its points from two-point range this season — the highest rate in the SEC and 15th-highest in the country. Missouri has struggled to protect the paint at times since Jeremiah Tilmon left the lineup due to a foot Injury. The Tigers might get Tilmon back Saturday, but even if he does play, expect him to be limited since he has only played eight minutes since the Braggin' Rights matchup on Dec. 22.
3. Control the glass. If there's one thing you can count on from a Frank Martin-coached team, it's rebounding. South Carolina has been solid in that regard again this season, especially on the offensive end, where the Gamecocks get 32.7 percent of their own misses. Missouri, meanwhile, has been out-rebounded in six of its past eight games. It wouldn't be a surprise if Martin gave his team similar pregame instructions as he did prior to the win over Illinois, when he said to bring boxing gloves first, then play basketball second. The Tigers don't necessarily have to win the total rebounding number to win the game, but given Missouri's offensive limitations, it can't afford to get blown out on the boards or give up a lot of second-chance points.
POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION
Tiger fans may think Missouri has been up-and-down this season, but it has been nothing compared to South Carolina's roller-coaster year. The Gamecocks have beaten Virginia and Arkansas on the road and Kentucky at home, yet have also lost to Boston University and Stetson. That's a long way of saying it's impossible to feel confident about any pick in this matchup. If Missouri can get enough points at the free throw line and avoid getting dominated on the offensive glass, it should at least give itself a shot to win late, but we're still not yet comfortable picking the Tigers to win a second SEC game in a row, especially on the road in a tough environment.
FINAL SCORE: South Carolina 67, Missouri 63
