1. Missouri

2. Kansas

3. Texas

4. Oklahoma

5. Oklahoma State

6. Colorado

7. Kansas State (tie)

7. Texas Tech (tie)

7. Iowa State (tie)

10. Texas A&M

11. Nebraska

12. Baylor

Andre Emmett Texas Tech

Arthur Johnson Missouri

Rickey Paulding Missouri

Wayne Simien Kansas

James Thomas Texas

Kevin Bookout Oklahoma

David Harrison Colorado

Keith Langford Kansas

Michel Morandais Colorado

Brandon Mouton Texas

Tony Allen Oklahoma State

Drew Lavender Oklahoma

Aaron Miles Kansas

Jake Sullivan Iowa State

Antoine Wright Texas A&M

De'Angelo Alexander, Oklahoma; Brad Buckman, Texas; Jason Conley, Missouri; John Lucas, Oklahoma State; Jeremiah Massey, Kansas State; Ivan McFarlin, Oklahoma State; Jimmy McKinney, Missouri; Jake Muhleisen, Nebraska; Jackson Vroman, Iowa State; Blair Wilson, Colorado

Jason Conley Missouri

Devonne Giles Texas Tech

Stevie Graham Oklahoma State

Jeremiah Massey Kansas State

Harvey Thomas Baylor

Will Blalock Iowa State

J.R. Giddens Kansas

Linas Kleiza Missouri

Drew Lavender Oklahoma

Cartier Martin Kansas State

David Padgett Kansas

 

Head coach: Quin Snyder, fifth season at Missouri (84-49)

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 22-11 overall; 9-7 Big 12 (tie-fifth); advanced to NCAA second round

Top returners: Arthur Johnson, Rickey Paulding, Travon Bryant, Jimmy McKinney

Significant loss: Ricky Clemons (14.5 ppg, 3.8 assists)

Key newcomers: Linas Kleiza, Jason Conley, Randy Pulley

Strength: Weapons, weapons everywhere. How many offensive threats does Mizzou have? Consider this: The 2001-02 NCAA scoring champ will likely come off of the Tigers’ bench.

Weakness: State of mind. The Tigers have carried lofty expectations into each of the last two seasons, only to falter during the heart of the Big 12 schedule. While trying to improve on their past, this Tiger team also faces a cloudy future due to an ongoing NCAA probe. Off-court distractions may be a hurdle as tough as any team on the schedule.

Non-conference measuring stick: Illinois, December 23 in St. Louis. Mizzou’s non-conference schedule is chock-full of likely NCAA Tournament teams, but the talented Illinois squad is the first they’ll face after swingman Jason Conley becomes eligible.

The Big Question: Can Randy Pulley drive this thing? Rarely has a junior college point guard walked into a better situation. His job is to be a distributor, and his distributees include two Wooden Award candidates, a former NCAA scoring champ, a McDonald’s All-American power forward, a member of last year’s Big 12 All-Freshman team and one of the most heralded newcomers in all of college basketball. If Pulley can adequately defend opposing point guards on one end, and put the ball in the right place at the right time on the other, the sky is the limit for Mizzou.

Outlook: There’s an elephant in the room and his name is Clemons. No matter what the Missouri Tigers achieve this season, part of the story will focus on the one key player from last year’s team who won’t be back for 2003-04. By now, everyone knows that allegations surrounding former Tiger Ricky Clemons have exposed the Mizzou program to scrutiny. Any consequences that flow from that scrutiny won’t be known until the season is well underway; they may not be known before the season’s end. And so the first job for coach Quin Snyder and company is to shove the elephant into a little box and set it aside, making it as small a distraction as possible. Easier said than done.

When the Clemons haze clears, what emerges is a serious national title contender. Mizzou’s aspirations start with a pair of senior All-America candidates, both of whom spent the summer representing the United States in the Pan-Am games. Center Arthur Johnson (16.1 points, 9.6 rebounds per game in 2002-03) already holds the Missouri career record for blocked shots. He should also hold the career rebounding record before he’s done. A minor mountain at 6’9" and 268 pounds, Johnson is surprisingly agile. With soft hands, solid moves and a variety of shots including a potent baby hook, the man his teammates call "Dock" is one of the toughest big men in the nation to defend. The co-headliner on the Tiger team is fellow Detroit native Rickey Paulding (17.4 points, 5.5 rebounds), an explosive 6’5" swingman who is effective above the rim and behind the arc, and who figures to finish on the list of the top ten all-time Tiger scorers. His athleticism and wingspan also help make him Mizzou’s top on-the-ball defender.

Paulding will have plenty of help on the perimeter. Jimmy McKinney (8.6 points, 3.4 assists) earned a spot on the Big 12 all-freshman team a year ago when he split time between the two guard spots, a role that will continue. A spidery 6’3" athlete, McKinney’s playmaking and poise benefited the club last season, though he struggled with his three-point shooting. Also returning is 6’4" senior reserve Josh Kroenke (3.5 points, 45.3% 3FG), who lives behind the arc. In his junior season, Kroenke connected on 30 field goals, 29 of them three-pointers.

Four newcomers round out the rotation on the perimeter. The most notable is high-flying junior Jason Conley (22.2 points, 7.3 rebounds in 10 games at VMI last season), a 6’5" guard/forward who transferred to Missouri from Virginia Military Institute, where he led the nation in scoring as a freshman with 29.3 points per game. Transfer rules will make Conley unavailable for the Tigers’ first four games. When he becomes eligible, Conley is expected to come off the bench, at least initially. Another transfer who figures in the mix is 6’2" Randy Pulley (12.8 points, 6.1 assists at Barton County Community College), a powerfully-built point guard who should begin the season in the starting lineup. Pulley is a penetrator and distributor who will rarely look to score; he’s not much of a shooter. Thomas Gardner, on the other hand, is a shooter to the bone. The 6’3" freshman has a terrific stroke, but he finds himself in a logjam for playing time. The final piece of the perimeter puzzle is 6’1" guard Spencer Laurie, the reigning Missouri high school player of the year. With so many quality guards on the roster, there has been talk of redshirting the freshman from Springfield.

Mizzou also has depth and talent in its corps of big men. In addition to Arthur Johnson, the Tigers return 6’9" senior Travon Bryant (8.9 points, 5.8 rebounds), a two-year starter and former McDonald’s All-American who has had an up-and-down career. The rare collegiate big man who can routinely hit the three-pointer, Bryant can be terrific, as he was in a win over Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament, or he can vanish, as he did in Missouri’s NCAA Tournament loss to Marquette. Bryant has seemed to play best when another player threatens him for playing time, and he has never faced a threat like the one provided by Linas Kleiza, one of the nation’s top incoming freshmen. A powerful and skilled 6’8" forward, Kleiza led all scorers this summer in the World Junior Championships, where he helped Lithuania to the finals. Whether or not Kleiza takes Bryant’s starting job, he will see plenty of playing time. Also fighting for minutes will be sophomore Kevin Young (2.3 points, 3.2 rebounds), a bruiser at 6’9" and 270 pounds. Young’s game is raw, but he is a spirited competitor. Missouri’s other big man, junior Jeffrey Ferguson (1.4 points, 2.3 rebounds) had a fantastic summer with Canada’s World University Games team, but visa issues, which have stranded him north of the border, seem likely to shelve him for the season.

Projected finish: First place, 14-2. A homer pick? Maybe, but this edition of the Tigers is the deepest, most talented, most experienced and most complete in Quin Snyder’s tenure. Few teams can match Missouri’s firepower, a factor that makes Mizzou a slight favorite over Kansas and Texas. When the Tigers host the Jayhawks on March 7 – in the last-ever game at the Hearnes Center – the conference championship could be on the line. That would be the toughest ticket in the history of Mizzou sports.

 

 

Head coach: Bill Self, first season at Kansas; 207-105 overall in 10 seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 30-8 overall; 14-2 Big 12 (first); advanced to NCAA title game

Top returners: Keith Langford, Wayne Simien, Aaron Miles, Jeff Graves

Significant losses: Nick Collison (18.5 ppg, 10.0 rebounds); Kirk Hinrich (17.3 ppg; 40.6% 3FG)

Key newcomers: David Padgett, J.R. Giddens, Omar Wilkes

Strength: Talent. Number of former McDonald’s All-Americans on the Kansas roster: four. Total number on the league’s other eleven rosters: five.

Weakness: Three-point shooting. In recent years, Jeff Boschee and Kirk Hinrich punished opponents from long range. But those guys are gone and no current Jayhawk has established himself as a potent three-point threat. If no one steps up, look for opposing defenses to sag to try to nullify some of Kansas’s interior strength and perimeter athleticism.

Non-conference measuring stick: Michigan State, November 25 in Lawrence. Two top ten teams slug it out before Thanksgiving. November’s biggest game.

The Big Question: Can Wayne Simien make it to the season’s end? When healthy, the junior is a hurricane in the post, but injuries have plagued him since his high school days. Last year, shoulder dislocations cut his season short and required surgery. If Simien can play the full slate, the Jayhawks will contend for the national title. If he can’t, they likely won’t.

Outlook: Here’s a scary thought for the rest of the league. The top five returning players on the Kansas roster have never finished out of first place in the Big 12, nor have they been bounced from the postseason before the NCAA Final Four. This group wins. Still, this group has had a lot of help that is now in the NBA, including two players who hit the lottery in the 2003 draft. Power forward Nick Collison was the league’s co-MVP last season; still, he may not have been the Jayhawks’ most indispensable player. Kirk Hinrich was the Kansas catalyst, a shooter, handler, passer and leader with an exceptional basketball IQ. If any team has enough talent to replace a tandem like that, it’s Kansas, but it’s still a tall order.

Junior Aaron Miles (8.9 points, 6.4 assists, 2.4 steals per game in 2002-03) is the Big 12’s best point guard almost by default; though the league is rife with studs in the paint and on the wings, it suffers from a dearth of talented, experienced playmakers. While his shot remains suspect (25.9% career from three-point range), Miles defends and distributes better than nearly any guard in the country, and he is athletic and strong enough to get to the rim. As long as he is on the floor, Kansas will enjoy an advantage over most teams in the conference. When he’s not, things will even out considerably. Over the past two seasons, Kansas enjoyed a great luxury when Miles went to the bench. The Jayhawks could slide Kirk Hinrich over from the wing and still have one of the nation’s best point guards. Hinrich’s absence means opportunity for someone. It could be 5’11" sophomore Jeff Hawkins (1.2 points, 20.5% FG, 6.0 minutes), though he struggled in his freshman year. It could be 6’3" junior Michael Lee, who defends the point better than he runs it. Or it could be 6’4" freshman Omar Wilkes, a wing guard with solid ball skills, or even 6’0" freshman Jeremy Case.

Beyond a backup for Miles, the only question on the outside is whether anyone can become a consistent perimeter threat. Junior swingman Michael Lee (4.9 points, 50.0% 3FG), a tough, physical defender, showed the ability to knock down the open three-pointer, but he attempted only about one per game. He will shoot given sufficient time and space, but he has not displayed a scorer’s mentality. Keith Langford (15.9 points, 4.9 boards), on the other hand, has enough scorer’s mentality for both of them. Langford is an extraordinary penetrator. Powerful and slippery, he routinely slides through tiny defensive cracks on his way to the rim. If Langford can improve his outside stroke (his 28.9% three-point percentage is second-best among returning Jayhawks), he will become a nightmare to guard. Langford could be slowed a bit in the early going by late-September arthroscopic knee surgery, but he should be at full speed by the time conference play starts.

If Lee doesn’t join Langford in the starting lineup, 6’5" freshman (and high school all-American) J.R. Giddens will. Giddens, to put it simply, is going to dunk on a lot of heads. Hard. He’s a scintillating athlete with good ball skills. He displayed a nice shooting touch in high school. If that translates to the next level, he will play many, many minutes. Fellow freshman Omar Wilkes is a solid all-around guard who could sub at any of the three perimeter positions. A third freshman guard, Jeremy Case, is smaller, less athletic and less heralded than Giddens and Wilkes, but is probably a better shooter and ball handler than either of them. Minutes will be tough to come by, but he could see time at either of the two guard spots.

The Jayhawks’ best player is also their toughest to figure. Junior Wayne Simien (14.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 64.6% FG in 16 games) is havoc wreaker in the paint. At 6’9" and 250 pounds, he is a powerful athlete who plays harder and faster around the rim than anyone in the league, with the possible exception of James Thomas of Texas. But unlike Thomas, Simien’s game extends more than eight feet from the basket. Last season, he appeared increasingly comfortable with his stroke out to the free throw line. So what’s the worry? He has trouble staying healthy, a problem that has plagued him since high school. He missed five games as a freshman because of a bum knee, and he lost half of his sophomore year following a pair of shoulder dislocations that led to surgery. Though the official word says that Simien is ready to go, fears about his durability, however slight, nag at every Kansas fan.

If Simien can’t hold up, front court depth could become a liability. Senior Jeff Graves (6.0 points, 6.4 boards) is the Jayhawks’ sole other power player, and he has shown flashes of dominance, most notably in his 16-point, 16-rebound effort against Syracuse in the national title game. But persistent foul trouble – he averaged 6.2 fouls per 40 minutes last season – limited his effectiveness as a junior. Freshman big man David Padgett, one of the nation’s elite newcomers, oozes skills from his pores, but he’ll take a pounding from an assortment of physical Big 12 bruisers if forced to play extended minutes alongside reed-thin sophomore Moulaye Niang (1.3 points, 1.5 rebounds) or undersized senior Bryant Nash (2.9 points, 2.4 rebounds). On the other hand, if Simien stays fit, look out, because this will be one of the country’s very best frontcourts.

Projected finish: Second place, 13-3. There is no doubt that Kansas can win the league, and a wiser prediction might have two (or even three) teams sharing the crown. But there’s no glory in forecasting a tie for the title, so the Jayhawks slide into the second spot, just behind Mizzou and just ahead of Texas. Aside from Simien’s health, the key may be freshman production. If they play up to their talent, J.R. Giddens and David Padgett could easily nudge this team to the top of the standings.

 

 

Head coach: Rick Barnes, sixth season at Texas (116-50); 318-184 overall in 15 seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 26-7 overall; 13-3 Big 12 (second); advanced to NCAA Final Four

Top returners: James Thomas, Brandon Mouton, Brad Buckman, Royal Ivey

Significant losses: T.J. Ford (15.0 ppg, 7.7 assists); Deginald Erskin (3.8 ppg); Terrell Ross (1.2 assists, 9.9 minutes)

Key newcomers: Kenny Taylor, Edgar Moreno, P.J. Tucker

Strength: Experienced talent and depth at four spots on the floor. Texas has two Wooden Award candidates and a former McDonald’s All-American in the starting lineup. Another McDonald’s game veteran comes off the bench, as do a handful of players who have logged significant minutes in Big 12 play. No one will scare this group.

Weakness: Looking for a weakness at Texas is like looking for a vampire at sunrise, but we’ll give it a shot. The vastly underrated Brandon Mouton is the only Longhorn who has shown the consistent ability to be a big time scorer at the collegiate level. Is that really a problem? With all the talent on this roster, probably not.

Non-conference measuring stick: Duke, December 20, in New York. Duke has more raw talent but less experience than the Longhorns. If that talent doesn’t all come together before Christmas, Texas could easily score an upset of a Blue Devil team that should be ranked in the top five. Expectations in Austin will immediately elevate should that come to pass.

The Big Question: How do you replace T.J. Ford? Few teams in America are as deep, experienced and talented as Texas. Fewer still have the burden of replacing a player like the Longhorns’ departed point guard. The 2003 Wooden Award winner gave the Longhorns their personality with his ability to force tempo and to thread needles with his passes. Without Ford putting the ball on a tee, the Horns will have to work harder to get their shots.

Outlook: If T.J. Ford had returned for his junior season, Texas would have been an overwhelming favorite to make the Final Four for a second straight year. Without him, they remain a sleeper pick to repeat the feat, but the Longhorns will need someone – or several someones – to step up at the point. In fact, replacing Ford is such a big task that it may take three men to do it. Senior Royal Ivey (7.9 points, 1.6 assists per game in 2002-03), a ferocious defender, played the point as a freshman and should get first dibs on the job. But if he should falter or need to catch his breath, junior college transfer Edgar Moreno and sophomore Kenton Paulino (1.0 points, 0.4 assists) will see action.

The Longhorns’ uncertainty ends there. Texas is fully stocked with experience, talent and depth at the other four spots. Two early Wooden Award candidates lead the way. Brandon Mouton (14.8 points, 41.3% 3FG), a powerful 6’4" senior guard, anchors the perimeter. A third-team All-Big 12 choice last year, Mouton started every contest for the United States’ Pan-American Games team over the summer. All-Big 12 second-teamer James Thomas (11.1 points, 11.0 boards) is one of the nation’s most ferocious rebounders and an opportunistic scorer. At 6’8" and a chiseled 235 pounds, the senior is one of the league’s most energetic and punishing players.

Sophomore Brad Buckman (6.7 points, 5.3 rebounds), a staple of the lineup last season, should start alongside Thomas, and could be considerably more effective than his freshman numbers might suggest. The erstwhile McDonald’s All-American showed a broad palette of post skills in his freshman year, even as he deferred to more experienced teammates. Junior center Jason Klotz (4.3 points, 3.0 rebounds) is a physical defender with a limited offensive repertoire. Senior 6’8" forward Brian Boddicker (8.3 points, 4.3 boards), offers a change of pace for Texas. Much more a finesse player than the other Longhorn big men, Boddicker has evolved into a three-point specialist. He made 43.9% of his tries from behind the arc as a junior. Freshman P.J. Tucker, an undersized but solid power forward, will provide depth.

Mouton’s companions on the perimeter aren’t quite as impressive as that group of interior players, but they’re good enough. Junior Sydmill Harris (6.2 points, 36.8% 3FG), a 6’5" guard, has excellent shooting range, the limits of which he tests a bit too often. Junior guard Kenny Taylor (11.8 points, 39.0% 3FG), who transferred from Baylor, made three treys per game as a sophomore. Both are mostly content to play behind the three-point line, which should make Texas ever-so-slightly easier to defend. Brandon Mouton is the only Longhorn wing player who poses much of a threat to penetrate, especially if Royal Ivey is playing at the point instead of the two spot.

Projected finish: Third place, 12-4. The Longhorns are equipped to win the Big 12, but they probably won’t score the ball quite as easily as Missouri and Kansas, hence the projection. The rematch of last year’s classic with Kansas will be played in Austin on February 23. The outcome of that contest should have a significant impact at the top of the standings.

 

 

Head coach: Kelvin Sampson, tenth season at Oklahoma (214-81); 390-229 overall in 20 seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 27-7 overall; 12-4 Big 12 (third); advanced to NCAA Elite Eight

Top returners: Kevin Bookout, De’Angelo Alexander, Jabari Brown, Jason Detrick

Significant losses: Hollis Price (18.1 ppg, 42.9% 3FG); Quannas White (4.0 assists, 44.9% 3FG); Ebi Ere (13.1 ppg, 4.8 rebounds)

Key newcomers: Andrew Lavender, Lawrence McKenzie, Jimmy Tobias, Jaison Williams

Strength: Toughness. Under Kelvin Samson, Oklahoma has developed an identity known far and wide. The Sooners are relentless and physical. No one plays harder. Unlike many teams, their defense can win games when their offense sputters. Last season, the Sooners won eleven games in which they scored in the sixties or lower.

Weakness: Interior scoring. Oklahoma has a wealth of big, tough post players, but only one – Kevin Bookout – has a polished offensive game. Bookout won’t struggle on many nights, but when he does, the Sooners will become much easier to defend.

Non-conference measuring stick: Michigan State, December 6 at Auburn Hills, Michigan. Both this game and the Sooners’ contest against Connecticut on January 11 put them on the road against top five teams. If Drew Lavender and Lawrence McKenzie can hold their own against those teams’ bigger, stronger and more experienced guards, the Sooners will immediately become final four contenders.

The Big Question: Can a 5’7" freshman point guard flourish in the nation’s toughest conference? The diminutive Drew Lavender is the highest profile recruit to land in Norman in years, and Kelvin Sampson will turn the team over to him from day one. But every time he steps on the floor, he’ll be matched up with bigger, stronger guards, and most of the time they’ll be more experienced as well. Oklahoma’s conference title hopes will hinge on Lavender’s ability to handle the boys-to-men transition from high school to the Big 12.

Outlook: When he gets off the bus, he’ll look like a ball boy. When he gets on the court, he’ll look like a superstar. No team in the Big 12 will lean on a freshman the way the Sooners will lean on Drew Lavender, the diminutive point guard from Columbus, Ohio. Despite standing just 5’7" (if that), the McDonald’s All-American’s dizzying speed and dazzling passes will help to take much of the sting out of the departures of Quannas White and Hollis Price, whose ball handling, passing and decision-making fueled Oklahoma’s success over the past two seasons. Lavender meshed seamlessly with his new teammates on a four-game Labor Day weekend tour of Costa Rica, where he made nine of 17 three-point tries and dished 33 assists against just four turnovers. He will be assisted at the point this season by Lawrence McKenzie, another highly regarded freshman guard.

Thanks to some shrewd maneuvering by Kelvin Sampson, Lavender will have a pair of dangerous targets for his passes on the wings. Last season, with seniors Quannas White, Hollis Price and Ebi Ere occupying the three perimeter positions, Coach Sampson made an unusual move and redshirted Jason Detrick (9.2 points per game, 39.9% FG in 2001-02), who would have been the team’s fourth senior guard. That move should pay off this season. The 6’5" swingman will provide scoring punch and valuable experience to a team full of youngsters on the perimeter. His running mate on the wing will be 6’4" sophomore De’Angelo Alexander (7.1 points, 3.6 rebounds), who started nine of the Sooners’ last ten games, and led the team in scoring in the NCAA Tournament. Alexander gained valuable experience over the summer as a member of the USA’s junior national basketball squad, and his 11.9 points per game ranked third on that team. Still, he could be slowed by a shoulder dislocation suffered in practice for Oklahoma’s Costa Rican excursion. Two newcomers – 6’4" freshman Jimmy Tobias and 6’3" junior college transfer Jaison Williams – will give the Sooners plenty of perimeter depth. In fact, Oklahoma’s depth and talent is such that Sampson appears likely to redshirt heralded freshman combo forward Brandon Foust, Lavender’s teammate at Brookhaven High School.

The Sooners should also be potent, especially defensively, in the paint, where they suffered no significant attrition. Oklahoma’s corps of post players is led by sophomore Kevin Bookout (9.5 points, 6.0 boards, 59.3% FG), who landed on the early list of 50 candidates for the 2004 Wooden Award. Skilled and powerful at 6’8" and 260 pounds, Bookout is – by far – the Sooners’ top threat in the post, though he struggled a bit with offensive consistency as a frosh (he scored a career-high 22 against Cal in the NCAA Tournament, but chipped in just two points in the Elite Eight against Syracuse). The rest of Oklahoma’s big men will be counted on primarily for defense, and few are better than 6’10" senior Jabahri Brown (6.3 points, 5.6 rebounds) who, despite being a paper-thin 210 pounds, uses his long arms and boundless energy to police the lane. Junior 6’8" forward Johnnie Gilbert (3.7 points, 4.7 boards) split time evenly with Brown a year ago, and will be counted on to do the Sooners’ dirty work. The fourth big man in the rotation is Larry Turner, a 6’11" center whose freshman season was cut short by injury after just six games. If his offensive game can blossom, he could be a big help.

Projected finish: Fourth place, 11-5. As good as the freshman Lavender is, it’s hard to believe that he can fully make up for the absence of Hollis Price, a two-time all-conference performer. Still, this is a potent team capable of a deep NCAA Tournament run.

 

 

Head coach: Eddie Sutton, fourteenth season at OSU (294-124); 724-288 overall in 33 seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 22-10 overall; 10-6 Big 12 (fourth); advanced to NCAA second round

Top returners: Tony Allen, Ivan McFarlin

Significant losses: Victor Williams (15.5 ppg, 3.2 assists); Melvin Sanders (12.9 ppg, 4.8 rebounds); Andre Williams (5.6 rebounds, 2.7 blocks); Cheyne Gadson (5.6 ppg, 3.1 assists)

Key newcomers: John Lucas, Tremaine Fuqua, Stevie Graham, Joey Graham

Strength: Size across the board. Point guard John Lucas is a little guy, but the Cowboys possess impressive size at every other position. Eddie Sutton’s defensive scheme is always effective. It becomes downright oppressive when this many long arms sever passing lanes.

Weakness: Proven scoring. Returning starters Tony Allen and Ivan McFarlin averaged 14.4 and 10.7 points per game, respectively, in 2002-03. No one else on the roster scored as many as three points per game for the Cowboys last season.

Non-conference measuring stick: Arkansas, December 20, in Fayetteville. Oklahoma State’s schedule is hardly a murderer’s row of opponents, especially for a program as good as it is. In fact, it’s entirely possible that the Pokes will get through the non-conference schedule unscathed. But it’s never easy to play in Bud Walton Arena, even against a Razorback team that figures to finish near the bottom of the SEC West standings. The schedule provides the Cowboys with few opportunities for the kinds of non-league road wins that translate into better NCAA Tournament seeding. They would be well-advised to take advantage of this chance.

The Big Question: Will this team mesh? Most of the Cowboys’ key players weren’t on the team a year ago. In fact, until just weeks ago, their point guard was enrolled at Baylor. If they can come together quickly, the Pokes could be factors in the Big 12 race. With Eddie Sutton at the helm, odds are that they will.

Outlook: Two safe bets year-in and year-out: Oklahoma State won’t be much to look at on offense and neither will the Cowboys’ opponents. Under Eddie Sutton, the Pokes have done much of their scoring in transition by turning intense ball pressure into turnovers and fast breaks. Even when they don’t get turnovers, their proclivity for stalking passing lanes and denying the post proves remarkably disruptive to opposing offenses. When their defense doesn’t lead to offense, though, the Cowboys often settle into, and sometimes bog down in, grind-it-out half-court sets.

A year ago, Oklahoma State’s defensive identity was built around the play of guards Victor Williams and Melvin Sanders, who also were two of the team’s top three scorers. But they were lost to graduation, leaving returning starters Tony Allen (14.4 points, 2.0 steals per game in 2002-03) and Ivan McFarlin (10.7 points, 7.8 rebounds) as the Cowboys’ cornerstones. Allen, a 6’4" senior wing guard and the reigning Big 12 newcomer of the year, should be OSU’s go-to guy. After averaging 14.4 points per game as a junior, Allen will be counted on to score even more, all the while being asked to defend opponents’ top perimeter scoring threats. McFarlin, a 6’8" interior player, is one of the league’s most explosive athletes. His offensive arsenal is limited, but he’s a fine rebounder and an excellent finisher around the rim.

The Cowboys unexpectedly snagged a likely starter in August when John Lucas transferred from Baylor (a waiver granted to all Baylor transfers means that Lucas will not have to sit out a year). The junior guard posted an impressive 2.2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio in 2002-03, best among all returning Big 12 players. He also chipped in 13.3 points per game. Lucas could use to improve his three-point stroke (he made 31.1% of his tries as a sophomore), but his penetration skills make him a better than average scorer inside the arc despite his 5’11", 155-pound frame.

Lucas leads a group of experienced newcomers who will be central to the Cowboys’ success. Tremaine Fuqua, a 6’9" post player who was among the top junior college recruits in the nation this past year, could be in the starting lineup from day one. With range out to the three-point line, Fuqua gives OSU a dimension not typically seen from its big men. After sitting out a year following their transfer from Central Florida, Stevie Graham (12.0 points, 2.8 assists at UCF in 2001-02), a 6’6" guard, and twin brother Joey Graham (13.3 points, 5.6 rebounds), a 6’7" forward, will both be relied on. Before John Lucas arrived in Stillwater, Stevie was expected to start at the point, but he’ll now likely slide over to a spot on the wing alongside Tony Allen. Joey will battle Fuqua for the chance to start alongside McFarlin in the post. Another transfer, 6’6" guard Daniel Bobik – who began his career at BYU – will supply perimeter depth. Freshman Marcus Dove, listed at 6’8" and 190 pounds, is well-regarded but he may need a redshirt year to put together a Big 12-ready body.

Coach Sutton will rely on a handful of other returning players for depth, but probably not for much production. Combo forward Terrence Crawford (2.9 points in 2001-02) is back after sitting out last year with a ruptured Achilles tendon. South African man-mountain Frans Steyn (1.2 rebounds) – a 7’2", 300-pounder – is a surprisingly good athlete with negligible basketball skills; still, at that size, he adds value. The Cowboys will also count on 6’9" senior power forward Jason Miller (2.9 points, 3.0 rebounds) to play significant minutes in the post. Senior guard Janavor Weatherspoon (2.5 points) had a disappointing junior season after an accomplished junior college career. If he can regain some of the form he displayed as a juco sophomore, he could give the Cowboys an unexpected lift off the bench.

Projected finish: Fifth place, 10-6. Another year, another bunch of transfers, another NCAA Tournament appearance. Eddie Sutton’s perennial ability to forge top teams out of lower profile players is remarkable. At Oklahoma State, the system is the star.

 

 

Head coach: Ricardo Patton, eighth season at Colorado (125-103)

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 20-12 overall; 9-7 Big 12 (tie-fifth); advanced to NCAA first round

Top returners: Michel Morandais, David Harrison, Blair Wilson

Significant losses: Stephane Pelle (12.0 ppg, 9.3 rebounds); James Wright (6.5 ppg, 3.7 assists in 19 games)

Key newcomers: Keith Smith, Marcus Hall

Strength: Two prodigious talents. Michel Morandais and David Harrison can be one of the top tandems in the nation. A high level of play from them can easily mask deficiencies at other positions on the floor.

Weakness: Playmaking. Sophomore Antoine McGee produced an impressive 2.2:1 assist to turnover ratio in his first season as a Buff, but his dreadful shooting limited his playing time and effectiveness. For Colorado to build on last year’s breakthrough, someone will need to feed Morandais, Harrison and Wilson in positions where they can do maximum damage.

Non-conference measuring stick: California, December 6, in Boulder. Like Colorado, Cal is a power conference team that figures to make the NCAA Tournament without really being in the league title hunt. Being at home gives the Buffs the edge, but the Golden Bears’ Amit Tamir and Leon Powe will give David Harrison the stiffest challenge that he will face until Kansas rolls into Boulder on January 5.

The Big Question: Can David Harrison’s desire match his ability? The former McDonald’s All-American has the size and skill to play in the NBA for ten years, but far too often he fails to impose his will on opponents. He can be one of the nation’s five best big men or one of the five biggest underachievers. It’s up to him.

Outlook: Dragon slayers at home and piñatas on the road, the 2002-03 Colorado club was two teams in one. They beat Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State and Missouri in Boulder, but lost to the likes of Nebraska and Rice closer to sea level. The inability to beat good teams below 5,000 feet resulted in a short post-season experience for a team that otherwise exceeded expectations.

One reason for the Buffs’ suspect road play was the lack of a steady performer at the point. Coach Ricardo Patton tried to upgrade the position during the spring by pursuing well-regarded junior college point guard Randy Pulley, but he ultimately signed with Missouri. And so Colorado will likely go with Antoine McGee (2.6 points, 3.0 assists per game, 29.7% FG in 2002-03), who returns for his sophomore year after splitting time last season with now-departed James "Mookie" Wright. McGee will be counted on to step up his game, especially his abysmal shooting. Otherwise, opponents will continue to play off of him in order to double-team his more dangerous teammates. If McGee struggles, Patton will turn to 6’1" freshman Marcus Hall.

To some degree, Colorado can overcome its playmaking deficiencies with the mere presence of senior Michel Morandais (16.9 points, 5.4 rebounds per game in 2002-03), who earned second team All-Big 12 honors last season. An athletic, freelancing wing who can create for himself and others, his 3.4 assists per game a year ago are tops among all of Colorado’s returning players. Though he is happy to dish the ball, Morandais hoists up a lot of shots. When he shoots 45% or better from the field, he can dominate. But when that number slips below 40%, he can shoot the Buffs out of games. His field goal percentage will be an important statistic to watch, given that he is likely to surpass last season’s average of 14 shots taken per game.

For Colorado to match or surpass its success from the 2002-03 season, Morandais has to be as good as he was a year ago. Junior center David Harrison (13.9 points, 8.3 rebounds) has to be better. A seven-footer who looks bigger than his listed weight of 250 pounds, Harrison can do it all. He runs well. He has soft hands and an impressive array of offensive moves. He blocks far more shots than anyone in the Big 12. But he also vanishes for long stretches of time. In Colorado’s sixteen conference games last year, Harrison attempted fewer than ten shots nine times; he never put up more than twelve. He needs to establish position in the post and demand the ball. If his teammates don’t give it to him, he must go and get it off the offensive glass. If he plays passively, Colorado is an NIT team at best. If he plays aggressively, the Buffs have Sweet Sixteen potential.

The other returning starter for Colorado is 6’6" senior guard Blair Wilson (12.8 points, 35.0% 3FG), one of the league’s more underrated players. A sometimes streaky shooter, the Buffs will need maximum production from Wilson to match last year’s record. They’ll also need him to exercise restraint on those nights when he can’t find the range, as he tends to have little conscience about tossing up three-point shots, no matter the results. Colorado will also hope for a dramatic increase in production from senior power forward Lamar Harris (4.7 points, 5.4 rebounds), who should slide into the starting spot vacated by Stephane Pelle. Last season, Pelle gave the Buffs 12.0 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. He also gave them much-needed energy in the paint; Pelle was as aggressive as Harrison was passive. For Colorado to compete with the Big 12’s better teams, Harris must play at a high level.

The Buffs will need maximum production from their starting five, because there is little experience or proven production on the bench. Only three reserves, all sophomores, saw much time last year. Glean Eddy (3.5 points, 3.0 rebounds), a 6’5" small forward, proved to be a good rebounder from the wing in his freshman season, though he struggled to find the range on his shot. Still, he remains a promising player. Jayson Obazuaye, a 6’2" guard, looks to have some talent, but he couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean as a frosh (43.8% FT, 8.3% 3FG). Chris Copeland (2.5 points, 1.6 rebounds), a 6’8" forward, needs to come up big in his sophomore year because of Colorado’s paltry interior depth, which took a blow over the summer when well-regarded recruit Rashaun Bryant, a burly 6’8" center, failed to qualify academically.

Projected finish: Sixth place, 9-7. Though the Buffaloes clearly have enough talent to secure an NCAA berth, Ricardo Patton’s CU teams have never displayed the kind of consistency that would lead one to believe that a Big 12 title is in the cards. More than anything, the Buffs need to make sure that they hold off ambitious insurgents like Texas Tech and Kansas State who threaten to knock Colorado off its tenuous perch in the league’s top half.

Head coach: Jim Wooldridge, fourth season at KSU (37-51); 266-198 overall in 16 seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 13-17 overall; 4-12 Big 12 (eleventh); no post-season

Top returners: Frank Richards, Marques Hayden, Tim Ellis, Jarrett Hart

Significant losses: Pervis Pasco (10.4 ppg, 7.5 rebounds); Matt Siebrandt (11.0 ppg, 4.8 rebounds); Gilson DeJesus (11.2 ppg, 5.7 rebounds, 43.7% 3FG)

Key newcomers: Jeremiah Massey, Dez Willingham, Cartier Martin

Strength: Athletes up front. Marques Hayden and Jeremiah Massey, the likely starters in the post, aren’t terribly tall, but they’re plenty thick and they can move. In contrast, freshman Cartier Martin, who will be in the mix at small forward, isn’t at all thick, but he’s as long as a biology lecture, and he has an abundance of athletic skills. The Wildcats can cause match-up problems with this front line.

Weakness: Guard play. Kansas State’s guards aren’t bad, but they may not be good enough for the Wildcats to meet their potential. There is a fair mix of experience and depth in the backcourt, but the talent level is marginal compared to the rest of the league, and K-State lacks shooters. Freshman Dez Willingham could make an impact, but he’ll have to make the adjustment to the college game in a hurry.

Non-conference measuring stick: Saint Louis, January 3 in St. Louis. Every one of K-State’s non-conference games is winnable. This one, the Wildcats’ tenth of the season, is losable. If the Cats come out of this game at 6-4 or worse, they’re in trouble come Big 12 time. If they emerge at 9-1 or better, they just might make some noise.

The Big Question: Can the kids grow up fast enough to win now? There are seven new faces on the roster. At least four of them will have to make immediate impacts for the Wildcats to hope to finish toward the middle of the Big 12 pack.

Outlook: Normally, when a team loses its top three scorers, a certain sense of doom settles in, but not for Kansas State. Departed seniors Gilson DeJesus, Matt Siebrandt and Pervis Pasco ranked 1-2-3 for the Wildcats last year, but none of them scored enough to carry a team. In fact, less than two points per game separated K-State’s top five scorers, and there is more than enough ripening and incoming talent in Manhattan to make up for the losses.

The top returning scorer is 6’2" senior point guard Frank Richards (9.9 points, 4.9 assists per game in 2002-03), who started every game for the Wildcats last season. Richards is an effective penetrator and distributor, but he poses little threat as a perimeter scorer. He made just 20.3% of his three-point attempts a year ago. Richards is in no real jeopardy of losing his job, but 6’0" freshman Dez Willingham, a highly touted recruit, will push him. Willingham is quick with the ball and is an excellent passer. Sophomore Schyler Thomas (1.4 points) could also see some time at the point.

Two veterans figure to split time at shooting guard. Tim Ellis (9.4 points, 38.2% 3FG), a 6’3" senior, is the team’s second-leading returning scorer and a solid perimeter threat. Jarrett Hart (7.5 points, 3.4 rebounds), a 6’4" senior, is more of a midrange player. Freshman Lance Harris is a good athlete with a decent three-point stroke. He could prove to be a key reserve in his first year.

Bridging the gap between inside and outside will be 6’8" freshman Cartier Martin. The top recruit to commit to K-State in recent years, he is generously listed at 215 pounds, though he played at around 195 in high school. A good athlete and solid defender, Martin could play on the wing or in the post for the Wildcats. Look for him to start at small forward. If Martin can reach his potential sooner rather than later, Kansas State could make a postseason push.

Though the Wildcats lost both of their starting post players to graduation, they should hardly miss a beat in the paint. Sophomore Marques Hayden (7.0 points, 4.5 rebounds), who checks in at a powerful 6’7" and 240 pounds, has a chance to be very good, but he’ll have to limit the foul trouble that plagued him in his freshman year. He’ll be joined by Jeremiah Massey, one of the top junior college prospects in the nation, who probably checks in more than a tad under the 6’8" in his official bio. Athletic and active around the glass, Massey should contend for newcomer of the year honors.

Hayden and Massey aren’t alone. Kansas State possesses quality size and depth off the bench in the form of junior college transfers Dramane Diarra (6’8", 220 pounds) and Justin Williams (6’10", 250 pounds). Junior Travis Canby (0.3 points, 0.6 rebounds) and freshman Tyler Hughes could see limited action as well.

Projected finish: Seventh place tie, 6-10. Jim Wooldridge is performing a chemistry experiment as much as he is coaching a basketball team. At least five newcomers should find themselves in heavy rotation from the season’s opening tip. If they jell quickly, the Cats have ample talent to play in the postseason; if they don’t, they might never gain enough traction. While the NIT seems more likely, slinking into the NCAA Tournament isn’t out of the question. They’ll need to make hay against the league’s lower half to do that. Kansas State’s meetings with Colorado and Iowa State should go a long way toward determining the team’s fate.

 

 

 

 

Head coach: Bob Knight, third season at Texas Tech (45-22); 809-311 overall in 37 seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 22-13 overall; 6-10 Big 12 (tie-seventh); third place in post-season NIT

Top returners: Andre Emmett, Robert Tomaszek, Ronald Ross

Significant losses: Kasib Powell (15.0 ppg, 6.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists); Will Chavis (7.8 ppg, 2.3 assists); Pawel Storozynski (5.0 ppg, 3.1 rebounds)

Key newcomers: Devonne Giles, Curtis Marshall, James Works

Strength: Andre Emmett. No other player currently in the league has ever made first-team All-Big 12. Emmett has done it twice. The Red Raiders don’t have many weapons, but they do have the league’s best pure scorer.

Weakness: Shooting. Bob Knight’s motion offense, with its rapid ball movement and multiple screens, can help mask Tech’s greatest deficiency, but can’t completely cover it. Other than senior power forward Robert Tomaszek, who made three of seven three-point attempts last season, no current Raider made better than 29% of his shots from behind the arc a year ago. Andre Emmett made eleven treys all of last season. His returning teammates combined for just thirteen. If opposing defenses can disregard the three-point line, the higher-percentage shots on which Tech thrives will be much harder to come by.

Non-conference measuring stick: Iowa, December 22 in Dallas. The first of three straight contests against Big Ten teams, the Red Raiders will face Iowa on a quasi-neutral floor, thus giving the game a bit of a tournament feel. The meeting between Bob Knight and his former protégé, Iowa coach Steve Alford, is sure to steal the headlines, but Tech’s performance on the floor should be the more important story. The Raiders will be looking to find their identity as they integrate a number of new players. A win or even a narrow defeat could bode well for Tech, but a lopsided loss to a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten club could be a very bad harbinger of things to come.

The Big Question: Who will be the Raiders’ second and third options? Few teams have as big a drop-off between their best player and the rest. Andre Emmett is a splendid player, but with Kasib Powell gone Texas Tech will need others to make significant contributions. The smart money to fill the void is on senior big man Robert Tomaszek and junior college transfer Devonne Giles. If those two fail to maximize their potential, it could be a long season in Lubbock.

Outlook: Like Eddie Sutton at Oklahoma State, Texas Tech coach Bob Knight can flourish without a stockpile of heralded players. Still, he needs some critical mass of talent to be able to compete in a league like the Big 12. This season, most of that mass will be provided by Andre Emmett (21.8 ppg, 6.6 rebounds in 2002-03), the senior 6’5" swingman who has landed on the All-Big 12 team each of the last two years. Emmett is a tremendous midrange scorer with a knack for finding space within opposing defenses. But he and his coach have not always seen eye-to-eye. Knight has chided his star for lazy defensive play, and even suspended him for a game last season. This year, the Red Raiders won’t have the talent necessary to withstand discord between the two most important members of the program.

Even as Emmett harvested post-season honors the past two years, Tech’s most valuable player may have been forward Kasib Powell, a box score filler who provided leadership on and off the floor. Now that Powell is gone, the Raiders desperately need someone to give Emmett aid. Among veterans, the most likely candidate is Robert Tomaszek (8.5 points, 5.2 rebounds), who is a load at 6’9" and 250 pounds. Tomaszek has shown the ability to be a good (if inconsistent) scorer, but he was taken out of his game all too often last year by the Big 12’s physical post players. Among newcomers, Devonne Giles, a 6’8" and 225 pound junior college transfer, is most likely to fill Powell’s shoes. Giles can be an effective scorer around the rim, and he should be Tech’s top rebounder. Fellow junior college transfer Joseph "Mookie" Works, a 6’6" forward, may be the Raiders’ best athlete. He can play inside or out, but he does his best work around the basket. Curtis Marshall, a third junior college transfer, should be Tech’s best shooter. At 6’5" and 190 pounds, he provides good size on the wing. Marshall is a jump shooter who will take full advantage of his teammates’ screens.

Ronald Ross (4.5 points, 2.5 assists), a 6’2" junior guard who started 20 games last year, turned the ball over only 33 times in 35 games. He should retain his starting job. He will be pushed by redshirt freshman LucQuente White, a 6’0" guard with good playmaking skills. Mikey Marshall (2.5 points, 14.4 minutes) is a 6’4" athlete who will play regularly. Jarrius Jackson, a 6’1" freshman, can play either guard spot, but he’ll have to bide his time behind more experienced players.

Tech’s bench won’t let Coach Knight give much rest to Tomaszek, Giles or Works in the frontcourt. Sophomore John Ofoegbu (1.7 points, 7.4 minutes in 20 games) has good size at 6’8", but his production was extremely limited a year ago. Tanner Ogden, a 6’7" redshirt freshman should also see some minutes.

Projected finish: Seventh place, 6-10. Big contributions from Giles, Works and Curtis Marshall could move the Raiders two or three spots higher and into the NCAA Tournament. Disappointing efforts from those three could knock Tech out of the NIT. Still, it is hard to imagine Bob Knight and Andre Emmett at the bottom of the standings. The pick here says that the newcomers bloom into a good enough supporting cast to help Texas Tech make a second straight run at the NIT’s version of the final four.

 

 

Head coach: Wayne Morgan, first season at Iowa State; 91-84 overall in six seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 17-13 overall; 5-11 Big 12 (tie-ninth); advanced to second round of post-season NIT

Top returners: Jake Sullivan, Tim Barnes, Jackson Vroman, Jared Homan

Significant losses: Adam Haluska (9.2 ppg, 3.6 rebounds); Chris Alexander (7.7 ppg, 5.2 rebounds in 9 games); Omar Bynum (2.9 ppg, 9.5 minutes in 22 games)

Key newcomers: Will Blalock, Curtis Stinson, Damion Staple

Strength: Backcourt toughness. Senior guard Jake Sullivan is one of the steadiest and most underappreciated players in the country, and fellow senior Tim Barnes had a fantastic finish to his first season at ISU after initially struggling with the transition from junior college. Throw heralded freshman Will Blalock into the mix, and the Cyclones have guards who can compete at the highest level.

Weakness: Uncertainty. It will be a while before Iowa State knows which players will be available for the conference season. If everyone can suit up, the Cyclones will have just enough scoring options to be pretty good. If not, a lack of depth and firepower could sink the team.

Non-conference measuring stick: Xavier, December 23 in Ames. By this time, everyone who will be eligible should be available (depending on pending suspensions), and not a minute too soon. The Muskateers’ Romain Sato is the best player the Cyclones will see before Big 12 play begins.

The Big Question: Can new coach Wayne Morgan establish order amid chaos? Larry Eustachy’s ouster as head coach headlined an off-season of turmoil that also included a bevy of suspensions, defections and off-court troubles. Still, a solid core of talented players remains. Directed properly, that talent could carry Iowa State to a post-season berth.

Outlook: By now, everyone has seen the photos, witnessed the aftermath, made the jokes. Larry Eustachy, who coached the Cyclones to two Big 12 titles in five years, posed for pictures while his life spun slowly out of control. Iowa State’s decision to fire the colorful coach was the biggest off-season development in Ames, but it was far from the only one. Wing guard Adam Haluska, a member of the 2003 Big 12 all-freshman team, transferred. Junior college recruit Justin Holt, a potential starter at small forward, failed to gain his eligibility. Chris Alexander, a gifted 7"1’ post player, left the team. Jared Homan, who started 29 games at center last year, pleaded guilty to a public intoxication charge and faces a possible suspension. Returning starters Tim Barnes and Jackson Vroman each were arrested on marijuana possession charges (Barnes also faced a drunk driving charge), and each is likely to be suspended for a portion of the season; first, though, each must overcome academic issues that are likely to sideline them until (at least) the end of the fall semester.

So why are these people smiling? Because they think they might surprise some people. One guy who won’t surprise anyone is senior guard Jake Sullivan (17.1 points per game, 41.9% 3FG in 2002-03), one of the most accomplished players in the brief history of the Big 12. The league’s freshman of the year three seasons ago, the 6’1" Sullivan has been a third team All-Big 12 choice each of the last two years. He enters the season as the top free throw shooter in league history, and the second most accurate three-point shooter. Barring injury, Sullivan likely will wind up among Iowa State’s all-time top five scorers. Sullivan’s experienced steadiness will be a blessing for 5’11" freshman point guard Will Blalock, who may open the season in the starting lineup because of his own impressive abilities and the off-court troubles facing Tim Barnes (11.3 points, 5.0 assists), who the Cyclones hope to have back for the second semester. Barnes, who joined Iowa State’s team a year ago as a junior college transfer, was knocked on his heels early in Big 12 play, but he finished the season with a flourish, scoring 16 or more points in six of the Cyclones’ last nine games. Even if Blalock is as good as Iowa State’s fans believe he will be, the Cyclones will need a contribution from Barnes to have any hope of sneaking into the NCAA Tournament. The only other player likely to see much time in the backcourt is 6’2" freshman guard Curtis Stinson, a prolific high school scorer who uses physical strength and good ball-handling skills to drive to the basket.

Adam Haluska’s departure makes 6’5" senior Marcus Jefferson (8.4 points, 3.4 rebounds) the obvious (and only real) candidate to start at small forward. Last season, Jefferson put up similar numbers to Haluska in fewer minutes. Unlike Haluska, who played much of his game behind the arc, Jefferson will spend a considerable amount of time around the basket. If off-court troubles don’t derail 6’10" senior Jackson Vroman (12.5 points, 9.4 rebounds), he’ll be a fixture at power forward. In his first season in Ames, Vroman proved to be a highly effective and active post player with an impressive array of offensive moves. If Vroman isn’t available, prized junior college recruit Damion Staple (15.3 points, 8.6 rebounds last season at Southeastern Illinois Community College), will get the nod. Even if Vroman is available, Staple – a 6’8" native of Jamaica – will spend a lot of time on the floor. The incumbent center is Jared Homan (7.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.9 blocks). Though not the prettiest player to watch, the rawboned 245-pounder gives Iowa State a physical presence in the paint. The frontcourt talent drops off a bit from there, but Coach Morgan will look to 7’1" senior Andrew Skoglund (0.9 points, 0.7 rebounds), 6’9" sophomore Adam Schaper (who redshirted last season) and 6’9" freshman Reggie George, for contributions off the bench.

Projected finish: Seventh place tie, 6-10. With questions surrounding Barnes and Vroman, the Cyclones face as much uncertainty entering the season as any team in the Big 12. If everything falls into place, Iowa State has enough experience, talent and depth to put itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble. But if Barnes and Vroman don’t make it back, the Cyclones could slide toward the bottom of the standings. It says here that senior Jake Sullivan holds the squad together and carries it to the NIT.

 

 

Head coach: Melvin Watkins, sixth season at Texas A&M (53-91); 95-111 overall in seven seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 14-14 overall; 6-10 Big 12 (tie-seventh); no post-season

Top returners: Antoine Wright, Nick Anderson, Andy Slocum, Kevin Turner

Significant losses: Bernard King (17.0 ppg, 5.6 assists); Tomas Ress (5.8 ppg, 3.9 rebounds); Keith Bean (5.9 ppg, 4.9 rebounds); Bradley Jackson (3.1 assists, 26.3% 3FG)

Key newcomers: LaKeith Blanks, Bobby Leach, Acie Law IV, Luis Clemente

Strength: Big, skilled athletes. Sophomore Antoine Wright is a 6’7" wing with superstar potential. Nick Anderson and Luis Clemente have the ability to bring big defenders outside and to take smaller ones to the basket. And Andy Slocum is a large, large man.

Weakness: Experience. Wright is the only player on the roster who regularly started a year ago. He is also the only one who scored more than eight points per game. The Aggies need big contributions from a number of players who have never been counted on to perform at the Big 12 level.

Non-conference measuring stick: at Tennessee, December 2. The Aggies’ non-conference slate is softer than Charmin, and this match-up in Knoxville might be our sole chance to learn anything meaningful about them before league play. That is, unless they stumble against the likes of Arkansas-Pine Bluff or Alabama A&M, in which case we’ll know all we need to know.

The Big Question: Can Antoine Wright carry a team? The reigning Big 12 freshman of the year has terrific athleticism, size and skills for a wing player, but he shot just 36.4% from the field a year ago. For the Aggies to have any chance to advance to a post-season tournament for the first time since 1994, that number will have to increase dramatically.

Outlook: Last season, Coach Melvin Watkins converted his best player, senior Bernard King, into a point guard, and the move paid off. With King gone, Watkins may try again. During the Aggies’ summer tour of Italy, Watkins played 6’7" sophomore Antoine Wright (14.5 points, 6.6 rebounds per game in 2002-03) at the point part-time. Though Wright – last season’s Big 12 freshman of the year – should see most of his time on the wing, he could occasionally play at the one spot as part of an enormous lineup.

When Wright plays on the wing, Watkins has a trio of candidates to handle the point. Senior Leandro Garcia-Morales (5.2 points, 2.7 assists) could play at either guard spot. Junior college transfer Bobby Leach (16 points, 9.1 assists at Neosho County Community College) is probably the more natural point guard and is likely to win the job. The third candidate, 6’3" freshman Acie Law, is bigger than the others, and like Garcia-Morales, he could see action at either backcourt position. Senior shooting guard Kevin Turner (7.9 points, 40.4% 3FG), the Aggies’ second-leading returning scorer, is the resident three-point specialist. Marcus Watkins (2.6 points), a 6’4" sophomore, is the coach’s son. He will find himself in the rotation.

A pair of senior inside/outside players will have much to say about A&M’s success. Jesse King (4.7 points, 2.7 rebounds), isn’t the most gifted player, but at 6’7" and 225 pounds, he is athletic and strong enough to contribute. Nick Anderson (4.9 points, 3.4 rebounds in nine games), on the other hand, possesses ample ability. A powerful 6’6" and 230 pounds, Anderson was a blue chip recruit out of high school, and he averaged about 10 points and five boards per game in his freshman and sophomore campaigns. Last year, though, academic troubles cost him most of his season. But even before losing his eligibility, he played like a shadow of his former self. A return to form would be most welcome in College Station.

The wild card on the A&M squad could be 6’8" forward Luis Clemente, a redshirt freshman. Academic issues (and not a lack of ability) kept Clemente on the shelf last season. If his impressive play during the Aggies’ tour of Italy is any indication, Clemente could be a real surprise in the post or even out on the wing because of a soft shooting touch. He is definitely one to watch. Another newcomer with a bright future is 6’5" freshman LaKeith Blanks, an athletic scorer from the wing. He won’t start, but he should be in the rotation right away.

One final player who could add another dimension to the A&M squad is Andy Slocum, a 7’0" and 275-pound senior who has played sparingly because of injuries and legal problems related to steroid possession. He is a good rebounder and he has game-changing size. Defensively, he could help to neutralize a number of gifted Big 12 post players who cannot match his size.

Projected finish: Tenth place, 5-11. The Aggies may turn out to be much, much better than this prediction. Antoine Wright is going to be good, so good that he may be in the NBA a year from now. If Bobby Leach, Nick Anderson, Luis Clemente and Andy Slocum all contribute at a high level, A&M could be the surprise of the league. But that’s a lot of ifs, and immature guard play is likely to hold the team back. If the Aggies are looking for some extra motivation, they could be playing for their coach’s job. Melvin Watkins has lured good talent to College Station, but he hasn’t produced a winning season during his five-year tenure. He is now working for a new athletic director who may want to bring in his own guy. Watkins needs to win now.

 

 

Head coach: Barry Collier, fourth season at Nebraska (38-50); 220-166 overall in 13 seasons

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 11-19 overall; 3-13 Big 12 (twelfth); no post-season

Top returners: Andrew Drevo, Nate Johnson, Jake Muhleisen, John Turek

Significant loss: Brennon Clemmons (6.8 ppg, 4.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists)

Key newcomers: Marcus Neal, Shuan Stegall, Charles Richardson, James Reynolds

Strength: Guard play. Not a great group by any stretch, but Jake Muhleisen’s return from injury stabilizes a deep corps that includes the gifted but erratic Nate Johnson, 6’5" sophomore Jason Dourisseau, junior Corey Simms, juco transfer Marcus Neal and freshmen Charles Richardson and James Reynolds.

Weakness: Inside game. Senior Andrew Drevo was surprisingly effective last season, his first at Nebraska, and he’ll be relied on heavily. But that where it ends. Junior John Turek is a space-eating rebounder with a limited offensive game, and the talent drops off from there.

Non-conference measuring stick: Creighton, December 10 at Omaha. The Huskers have put together a respectable non-conference slate, including games with Arizona State, Tennessee and Minnesota. But this one, for statewide bragging rights, should have more of a tournament-style atmosphere. Plus, when the Blue Jays lost Kyle Korver and Larry House to graduation, the talent disparity between the rivals evened out considerably.

The Big Question: Is there any reason for hope? After bringing up the rear in last year’s standings, Nebraska did little to improve in the off-season. The return of Jake Muhleisen will help, but the Huskers suffer from a deficit of talent compared to ten of the league’s other eleven members.

Outlook: The good news? Nebraska returns almost everyone from last year’s squad. The bad news? Last year’s squad wasn’t very good. Of course, it didn’t help when Jake Muhleisen (11.7 points, 3.4 assists per game last season in 14 contests), the team’s steadiest player, fractured his hip in the conference opener. Still, even had the 6’4" Muhleisen remained healthy, it’s hard to believe that the Huskers could have risen far from the league’s cellar. They were simply outgunned by most opponents, especially on the road, where they were winless in conference play, all eight losses coming by double figures.

Muhleisen, a junior, is ready to take back his starting spot at one guard position. For Nebraska to exceed its low expectations, the Huskers will need a breakthrough performance from 6’2" guard Nate Johnson (13.3 points, 2.3 assists) at the other guard spot. Johnson, the preseason pick for newcomer of the year last season, can score in bunches, but he can also vanish for stretches. Consistent play from him is a must. If coach Barry Collier can’t get that from Johnson, he can turn to Marcus Neal, a junior college transfer who averaged 20.2 points and 5.4 assists per game last season. Collier may play Neal, Muhleisen and Johnson together; they would make for a smallish trio, but the ball-handling would be solid. Charles Richardson, a 5’8" freshman, could also see some minutes at the point.

A small army of guards and swingmen will fight for time at the third perimeter position. Jason Dourisseau (4.9 points), a 6’5" sophomore, played significant minutes as a freshman but never seemed fully integrated into the offense. Junior Corey Simms (7.4 points, 4.9 rebounds), on the other hand, started 26 games and provided offensive punch, though his production waned in the season’s final four weeks. Shaun Stegall, a 6’6" freshman, is an effective rebounder who could steal some minutes. James Reynolds, another freshman, should also be available.

Up front, Nebraska’s top player is 6’8" senior Andrew Drevo (13.9 points, 7.3 rebounds), who surprised observers around the league last year after transferring from Division II Morningside College. Nebraska’s unquestioned go-to guy in the paint, Drevo could help the club by improving on last season’s 41.1% field goal shooting. Junior John Turek (7.8 points, 6.5 rebounds), a 6’9" center, started every game a year ago. He could help the team by improving on his 43.9% free throw shooting. A trio of big bodies will be counted on to spell Drevo and Turek. They are 6’11" senior Brian Conklin (3.5 points, 2.2 rebounds), 6’9" sophomore Wes Wilkinson (1.8 points, 1.8 rebounds) and 6’10" sophomore Tony Wilbrand (0.5 points, 0.6 assists).

Four years into the job, coach Barry Collier has seen little success, making fans yearn ever so slightly for the glory days of Danny Nee (he may not have been a genius, but he took the Huskers to five NCAA Tournaments and a handful of NIT’s). With new athletic director Steve Pederson in place, a continuation of Nebraska’s recent downward trend could lead to a change. Collier’s squad might not be playing only for themselves and their school. They might also be playing for their coach’s job.

Projected finish: Eleventh place, 3-13. It’s no secret that Nebraska is light years behind the top half of the league. Unfortunately for the Huskers, some distance also seems to have opened up between them and Iowa State and Kansas State, the other bottom-halfers in the Big 12’s northern territory. Unless at least two players unexpectedly step up for Nebraska the way that Drevo did a year ago, it could be a long, long season in Lincoln.

 

 

Head coach: Scott Drew, first season at Baylor; 20-11 overall in one season

Roster and Schedule

2002-03 record: 14-14 overall; 5-11 Big 12 (tie-ninth); no post-season

Top returners: R.T. Guinn, Matt Sayman, Terrance Thomas, Ellis Kidd

Significant losses: Lawrence Roberts (15.2 ppg, 10.4 rebounds); John Lucas (13.3 ppg, 4.4 assists); Kenny Taylor (11.8 ppg, 39.0% 3FG)

Key newcomers: Harvey Thomas, Carl Marshall

Strength: Interior play. While "strength" is a relative term as it applies to Baylor this year, Coach Drew has some players to work with on the inside. Senior center R.T. Guinn is a solid, if not spectacular, player who shone for Baylor over the last five weeks of the 2002-03 season, and 6’8" junior college transfer Harvey Thomas is a skilled athlete upon whom the Bears will lean heavily throughout the year.

Weakness: Depth. Patrick Dennehy’s death and a series of defections have left the Bears with just seven recruited players. Coach Scott Drew will likely try to fill out his roster with walk-ons and athletes from other sports.

Non-conference measuring stick: Southern Methodist, December 3 in Waco. This early season contest pits Baylor against the toughest foe it will face until Purdue comes to town a month later. Mustang point guard Bryan Hopkins will provide a huge test for the Bears’ backcourt. They won’t stop him, but they’ll have to slow him down for Guinn and Thomas to have any chance to win the game on the inside.

The Big Question: How much can one program bear? One player is dead, another awaits trial for his murder, the program is under a self-imposed probation and a once-respected coach resigned in disgrace. Hopefully, the players, staff and fans who remain at Baylor can find some measure of solace on the court.

Outlook: Rewind the clock to Memorial Day. Something good was brewing in the Baylor basketball program. Every significant contributor from last year’s team was due back in the fall, including Wooden Award candidate Lawrence Roberts, rock solid playmaker John Lucas and sharp shooting guard Kenny Taylor. Some heralded recruits, including athletic big man Tyrone Nelson, were just weeks away from arriving on campus. Patrick Dennehy, who sat out last season after transferring from New Mexico, was itching to play. Coach Dave Bliss, owner of more than 500 wins, was entering his fifth season in Waco, having constructed a team entirely of his own recruits. In a conference that saw most teams lose top players, Baylor looked like a sleeper pick, a good bet for postseason play, one who could sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

By Labor Day, the program lay in ruins. Dennehy was dead. A former teammate awaited trial for his murder. Roberts, Lucas, Taylor and Nelson had enrolled elsewhere. And Bliss, formerly respected, had become the symbol of corruption in collegiate sports when audiotape captured him concocting a scheme to soil Dennehy’s memory in an effort to save his own skin. The Big 12’s sole private school endured, and continues to endure, a most public shame.

As if the human trauma weren’t enough, Baylor’s investigation into the former coach’s malfeasance resulted in an immediate self-imposed two-year probation with more perhaps to come from the NCAA. As typically happens in sporting scandals, innocents are left to endure and clean up the mess left by others. The man put in charge of righting the ship is first-year coach Scott Drew. Just 32 years old, Drew spent last season as head coach at Valparaiso after serving the previous nine as a Valpo assistant under his father, Homer. Drew was responsible for luring a string of quality international players to Valparaiso, a recruiting strategy likely to continue at Baylor. And while infusing the program with greater talent is a priority, job one for Drew is to restore Baylor’s integrity. He will be under no pressure to win in his first couple of seasons, and that’s good news, because the Bears will almost certainly have the Big 12 cellar to themselves in the short term.

That’s not to say that the cupboard is entirely empty in Waco. While no one will mistake 6’10" senior center R.T. Guinn (10.6 points, 5.6 rebounds per game in 2002-03) for an all-conference candidate, he has quietly become a solid player. Guinn finished his junior year with style, scoring in double figures in nine of the Bears’ last ten games, with three double-doubles. In addition to his contributions on the court, the Baylor program will look to him for continuity and leadership. Other returners include 6’6" senior forward Terrance Thomas (5.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists), 6’4" senior guard Matt Sayman (4.5 points, 2.3 assists), 6’4" junior guard Ellis Kidd (4.3 points), 6’9" sophomore forward Tommy Swanson (3.9 points), and 6’2" sophomore guard Will Allen, who saw just three minutes of playing time as a freshman.

Baylor’s most important newcomer is Harvey Thomas, a 6’8" combo forward who started his career at Georgetown before transferring to a junior college last year. Thomas averaged 13.8 points per game last season at Northeast Oklahoma A&M, and Baylor will count on him to match that production point-for-point. Also likely to be tossed into the fire is 5’10" freshman guard Carl Marshall, who will attempt to fill the shoes of departed point guard John Lucas.

Projected finish: Twelfth place, 1-15. Given the horrors of the preceding several months, simply fielding a team is an achievement for Baylor. Even one win in the Big 12 would be an accomplishment worth celebrating.