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I would like to begin with an apology to the basketball nerds. I am sorry I questioned your formulas last week. I’m sure they are fine formulas, full of the little pluses and minuses and decimal points you love.
After poking fun at the NCAA’s NET rankings for slotting Missouri well below Colgate, I have to say, it is entirely possible Colgate would have given Ole Miss a stiffer test than the Tigers did on Wednesday. That would require, however, that Colgate play a team other than Holy Cross or actually play any game at all — which it hasn’t since Jan. 30 — but you probably don’t subscribe to this site for Colgate insults.
So let’s dive into the big question: Were the nerds right about Missouri all along?
In SEC games, Missouri has won close and lost big, resulting in them being outscored 708-703 overall, despite holding a 6-4 league record. So the ratings systems that factor in offensive and defensive efficiency see the Tigers as an average team. The fact Missouri has beaten teams like Illinois, Tennessee and Alabama suggests otherwise.
I should probably clarify that the Tigers’ NET ranking — 34th, as of Thursday — isn’t terrible. Unless they play the rest of the season like it’s the second half of a game in the state of Mississippi, they’re going to safely make the NCAA Tournament. But compare their NET to their AP poll ranking, which is 10th for the time being, and the gap is the difference between being a 3 seed and a 9 seed.
I do think Missouri’s efficiency stats — and, as a result, its NET ranking — are skewed a little low because in a few cases the Tigers ceased to participate in what most statistical models could even recognize as basketball once it was clear they were likely to lose. You know how a golfer, in the interest of time, might concede a gimme putt in match play? On the 10th tee, the Tigers conceded the whole back nine to Ole Miss, then passed out at the wheel of their cart with their foot on the pedal and puttered into a nearby creek.
I try to avoid judging effort, but when SEC Network announcers — whose main talking points usually involve advocating for all 14 teams to make the tournament — use the phrase “that’s too easy” to describe the shots you’re allowing, that’s not good. When proud alum and former Board of Curators president Jon Sundvold tweets a photo of a drowsy tiger sprawled on a log, you might not be bringing the heat on this particular night.
And, indeed, Cuonzo Martin came right out and said what everyone was thinking after the game: “Some guys didn’t show up.”
But, if we’re being honest with ourselves, we all phone it in from time to time. We scrape a teacup-sized opening in the frost on the driver’s side windshield and declare it good enough for the morning commute, we offer a Valentine’s Day gift bag to our significant other that is filled with items picked up at Hy-Vee at 9 p.m. on Feb. 13, we have a few martinis before we scrub in for the craniotomy.
You might find it hard to believe, but sometimes I slap together half-assed commentary minutes before it’s due. You don’t find it hard to believe? Oh, that’s hurtful.
Anyway, I won’t hold 22-year-old basketball players to a higher standard than I hold myself. You hand Alabama its only loss in SEC play on Saturday, you’re entitled to make 5 of 15 free throws on Wednesday. This philosophy is one of the reasons I do not coach competitive athletics.
But back to the original question, which is the nerds, and whether they were right all along. They do have a point — Missouri certainly isn’t the 10th-best team in the nation — and I am willing to meet them more than halfway. I’ll say the Tigers belong in the 20-25 range, which would translate into a 4-6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That would be fair spot for a team whose overall overachievement outweighs a few clunkers.
Goodbye, Terez
Back when I was covering Mizzou sports more seriously, there was always a little anticipation and trepidation among the press corps when a new beat reporter arrived. Best-case scenario, the new person would be a lot of fun and lazy as hell.
So when Terez Paylor showed up as the new Missouri Tigers reporter for The Kansas City Star, we were curious about the new guy. It turned out, Terez was fun to be around but he worked relentlessly, so I guess he batted .500 in our eyes.
This was during the Frank Haith/conference realignment era at Mizzou, which was not a golden age of faith in the stated intentions of people speaking into microphones. Terez was different. He didn’t assume everyone was lying to him all the time — he was probably wrong about that, God bless him — and he was puzzled that the rest of us did.
When I talked to him or saw the angles he took in interviews and stories — which weren’t filled with references to Missouri’s tortured past — it did occur to me that he might be on to something. Of course, I never followed up on that thought, nor made any changes to my approach whatsoever, but still, I noticed. Players, coaches and readers responded to his passion for sports that wasn’t coated in a layer of sarcasm.
Terez was only here for a few years before moving on to cover the Kansas City Chiefs for The Star and then the whole NFL for Yahoo! Sports. It was a remarkable ascent.
He died unexpectedly Tuesday at age 37. It was a stunning loss.
Terez was big on helping young journalists find their way. I think the lesson of his career is that if you emphasize the thing that sets you apart from the crowd — in his case, an unvarnished enthusiasm for football, stripped of all guardrails — people will notice over time. People appreciate what’s genuine and what they can’t find just anywhere. Enthusiasm for his subject matter oozed from his stories, podcasts, even his mock drafts.
The lesson of his life is you can do all of the above and still be the person everyone remembers fondly and misses dearly.
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