What do Missouri's penalties mean for Odom's future?
Two major questions have been hanging over Missouri's heads for weeks. The first was answered on Tuesday. The NCAA rejected Missouri's appeal in its entirety and upheld all sanctions against the baseball, softball and football programs.
The second question now takes center stage. Will Friday's game against Arkansas be Barry Odom's last as the Missouri head coach?
Six days ago, PowerMizzou.com asked that question of Odom and Jim Sterk. Sterk's answer was non-commital and perhaps telling for exactly that reason. On Tuesday evening, we asked Sterk the question again. Does the result of the appeal have any impact on how he views Odom's future.
"This is completely separate," Sterk said. "Although you know as I said Barry has done a really good job. We're focusing on this today and after the season we'll talk about that."
There are two schools of thought here. First of all, if Sterk were to move on from Odom, 24-25 in four years as the Tigers' head coach, he would be handing over a football program that is on probation and dealing with recruiting restrictions to the next guy. It is not ideal. But essentially, Missouri will have to find a way to shed four scholarships, will have to reduce official visits for a year and will have to forfeit seven weeks of off-campus recruiting.
They are not penalties to be completely dismissed, but they are also nothing that can't be overcome. Programs have dealt with harsher restrictions and come back quickly. Plus, the next coach will be Sterk's hand-picked hire. He will have a relatively long leash. He will have a boss that fully understands the limitations with which he is dealing.
On the other end of the spectrum, could Tuesday's news have actually made Odom's position more tenuous? The worst-case scenario for Missouri was that the appeal was not resolved before the end of the season. Missouri would still have been eligible for a bowl if it were to beat Arkansas. But if the appeal had been rejected after that, the postseason ban would have been carried over to next year, as it was for the softball and baseball programs.
In that scenario, a new coach not only has all the same recruiting restrictions, but he can't even sell a chance at a 13th game to his first recruiting class. Now, at least there is an answer. One more variable has been removed from the equation.
Ultimately, this may be a financial decision as much as anything else. It has been well publicized that Missouri has operated at a deficit each of the last two years. With football attendance likely to decline--regardless of who the head coach is--that is unlikely to change next year. In addition, the athletic department will now not receive its share of the Southeastern Conference's postseason payout. The school has estimated that at eight to ten million dollars and the high end could be closer to correct if the league gets two teams in the College Football Playoff which is possible if not likely at this point.
On this question, perhaps the most important news of the day came from Chancellor Alexander Cartwright.
"We will help the athletics department to get through that," Cartwright said. "Most likely through a loan process."
The athletic department at Mizzou has long prided itself on being self sufficient. It receives no money from the University at large. That changes with this. Yes, the funds will have to be repaid. But there is no eight million dollar hole in the budget. The athletic department can operate with that money at its disposal.
Odom's buyout is $2.85 million dollars. The staff buyouts are likely in the range of two to four million dollars total, though that number would be reduced by each coach who got another job. Already in the budget for next year is Odom's $3.05 million salary and $4.73 million for his staff. While that number might need to rise for a new head coach and new staff, it wouldn't be more than a couple million dollars.
In other words, with the loan from the University, the amount of money Sterk has to collect from donors has gone down. The finances may not be as much of an impediment as was thought before today.
Missouri's season will be over in three days. By the end of the weekend, Odom's future should be known.