We’ve reached the second rivalry game as the Tigers (10-1) take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) in the annual Braggin’ Rights matchup in St. Louis.
Here’s what I’ll be keeping an eye on at noon at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis (ESPN).
Scouting Report
Illinois enters the 55th edition of the rivalry matchup and 43rd in St. Louis coming off a last-second 66-64 loss to No. 1 Tennessee.
The Illini have played a very tough schedule to this point, losing to No. 8 Alabama, No. 1 Tennessee and Northwestern in the Dec. 6 opener of Big 10 play, as well as beating No. 19 Arkansas and No. 20 Wisconsin.
There’s exactly one player on Illinois’ team who appeared in last year’s Braggin’ Rights matchup, 6-foot-1, 185-pound sophomore guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who played 3 minutes without a stat other than a missed shot in last year’s game and is averaging about 13.8 minutes per game, appearing in all 10 this season.
Otherwise, it’s a fully new Illini roster.
Freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis (6-6, 205) has taken the lead for Illinois this year, scoring 16.1 points to go with 6.1 rebounds per contest and a team-high 5.6 assists per game. The do-it-all guard hits 42 percent of his attempts from 3 (21-of-50) and is tied for first on the team in makes from deep while being 10 attempts behind 6-9, 225-pound graduate forward Ben Humrichous, who has made 21-of-60 from deep.
Sophomore center Tomislav Ivisic (7-1, 255) who is from Croatia, is second on the team at 14.2 points per game to go with his near double-double average of 9.7 boards per contest. Freshman forward Will Riley (6-8, 195) adds 13.5 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, while 6-2, 205-pound junior guard Kylan Boswell scores 10.1 points per game to go with 4.1 rebounds per contest.
All four have played in all 10 games, though Riley has come off the bench in all 10.
The Illini have used the same starting 5 in every game with Jakucionis, Ivisic, Boswell, junior guard Tre White (6-7, 210) and Humrichous.
The Illini score 84 points a game and give up 64.6.
Illinois shoots 43.2 percent from the field, 32.4 percent from 3 and 73.5 percent from the free-throw line, while allowing opponents to shoot 36.9/23.9/61.5.
Illinois leads the all-time series 34-20 and holds a 26-16 advantage for matchups in St. Louis, including a 97-73 win last season. But the Illini hold just a 6-4 lead in the past 10 games.
Matchups
Mizzou’s perimeter defense vs. Jakucionis
The Tigers allow opponents to shoot just 33.2 percent from beyond the arc, which is surprisingly low considering the amount of open looks it feels like the Tigers give up every game.
Jakucionis comes in firing from deep. If Mizzou leaves him open, there’s going to be some major issues, especially if he hits a few early.
The Tiger defense needs to stay locked on Kajucionis around the perimeter as much as possible. He’s definitely a major threat closer to the basket, too, but a few early, open 3s could give the Illini the momentum and the Tigers need to take it early and run with it like they did in the Border War.
Mizzou’s defense forcing turnovers
We’re sticking with the defense with the second matchup.
The Illini commit 11.2 turnovers a game and force only 10.4, so Illinois is running a deficit game-to-game.
For the Border War, I said one of the routes to a win was the Tiger defense forcing a lot of early turnovers and building a lead, then holding onto the momentum. That’s the same case here and the 2022 Braggin’ Rights matchup is the prime example to look at.
If Mizzou is able to play in transition early and get some easy looks, that sets the Tigers up about as well as possible against a team they don’t necessarily match up well with.
Josh Gray vs. Tomislav Ivisic
This one is just interesting to me.
Watching two talented 7-footers battle it out in the post is always fun. I think Ivisic is the type of post player that’s going to go right at Gray more than Hunter Dickinson did, so another game where Gray makes a big, immediate difference in the post could go a long way to the Tigers getting their 11th consecutive win.
What I'm looking for
Has to be a quick start like we saw in the Border War.
If the Tigers are going to win both of their rivalry games this year, they have the formula and showed they can do it.
They don’t need a 29-point night from Tamar Bates again, though that would be a good way to keep the offense moving, but there’s going to have to be a big offensive night from somebody.
Both teams like to play in transition, which is going to lead to some turnovers, if the Tigers are able to take advantage and force Illinois into some early ones that lead to easy buckets, that’s the best setup Mizzou can have for this game.
And once again, gotta try to keep away that offensive lull. It’s probably going to happen at some point, we see it just about every game. The Tigers pulled out the win against kansas because they built up a big enough lead to withstand a long lull.
That’s a lot to ask them to do again, so instead, how about we ask for a shorter lull. Maybe only five minutes instead of 13 where the offense looks awful.
No lull at all would be fantastic, but feels like too big of an ask at this point until we see them go without one against a good team.
And just for my sake:
I already have one of my favorite coverage assignments I’ve gotten to experience in this year’s Border War. The 2022 version of Braggin’ Rights is another one that’s up there for me because it was my first time covering a game courtside and the way that game went, I could feel the energy from the Mizzou side of the arena all night.
I was sent up to the top of the arena for last year’s game and it definitely affected the experience, but I got confirmation Friday that I’m back on the floor this year, so hopefully the Tigers can give me a second of my favorite games I’ve ever covered in the same basketball season.
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