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What losing starters to the NFL Draft mean for Mizzou in Gasparilla Bowl

December is a hectic month for Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz. He has to prepare his team for a Dec. 23 showdown with Wake Forest in the Gasparilla Bowl, he has to make house visits to his 2023 recruiting class and he has to re-recruit his own players who may want to enter the portal.

One thing that worries him more than those things heading into the bowl game is the players he's losing to the NFL Draft. So far, he's already lost three starters in safety Martez Manuel and defensive ends DJ Coleman and Isaiah McGuire.

"Biggest concern for me right now is probably our guys who aren't going to play because of their potential future in the NFL," Drinkwitz said. "Martez and McGuire are the only ones who have addressed that situation. We'll figure out the rest as we move forward, but everybody else was at practice (on Dec. 4.)."

Those comments were from Drinkwitz's Dec. 5 press conference with Coleman declaring for the draft and opting out of the bowl game on Dec. 6 and he may not be the last one. It's possible that Drinkwitz could possibly lose five more starters before the game.

Cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine, safety Jaylon Carlies, left tackle Javon Foster, linebacker Ty'Ron Hopper, defensive end Trajan Jeffcoat and defensive tackle Darius Robinson are all players mulling over the decision to return to Mizzou or play on Sundays a year from now.

Players entering the draft are a testament to the players and how Drinkwitz and the Tigers' coaching staff developed those players, but in a dream scenario, Drinkwitz would love to have his players play in what would be their last collegiate games.

However, for one reason or another, it's not atypical to see players who declare to skip any bowl game that isn't a New Year's Six bowl.

So, here is what the Tigers could expect to miss with these players being out.

Lack of a pass rush

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Mizzou will be lacking in the pass-rush department against Wake Forest with Coleman, Manuel and McGuire missing the game because those are the Tigers' three leading sack leaders.

McGuire, the All-Southeastern Conference second-team selection, recorded a team-high 7.5 sacks to go along with 39 tackles, 13 tackles for loss and a pair of fumbles.

Coleman was second with 4.5 sacks and added 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles in three starts and 12 games played.

Manuel recorded four sacks in addition to his 49 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, one pass deflection and forced fumble.

The Tigers finished 28th in the FBS in sacks with 33 which means the Tigers will be without half of their sack production.

Robinson is fourth in sacks with 3.5 followed by Hopper's 2.5 and it's certainly possible that the pair opts out of the game before the game and leaves the Tigers

That'll be huge versus a Wake Forest team who will have the nation's 12th-leading passer, Sam Hartman, at the helm. He completed 247 of 392 passes for 3,421 yards, 35 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. At Hartman's disposal is five receivers who have recorded over 500 receiving yards for this 29th-ranked Demon Deacons' offense.

This is relevant because if the Tigers can't get a pass rush that means Wake Forest will be dictating the game on its terms.

Pressure on rest of the defense

Mizzou is already missing All-SEC second-team wide receiver, Dominic Lovett, on since he decided to enter the transfer portal. If the Tigers' defense wants to make it easier on the offense, the former must make this a low-scoring game and some players will have to step up.

Jeffcoat started the first nine games of the season before losing his spot to Coleman. His numbers have steadily declined since his breakout 2020 campaign which saw him put up 23 tackles, six sacks and six tackles for loss in eight games. If Jeffcoat doesn't opt out, Mizzou can rely on Jeffcoat's starting experience and prior success to help Missouri attack Wake Forest's offensive line.

The Demon Deacons enter the matchup tied for 108th in sacks allowed with three per game and 36 on the season.

Tyrone Hopper, Josh Landry, Arden Walker and Johnny Walker will also have to provide some help on the ends. The quartet combined for just 22 tackles and 5.5 sacks.

Drinkwitz also said during that press conference that he believes the safety group will be reeling the most of any position group on the team.

In the micro sense, the team has Daylan Carnell to replace Manuel. Carnell will almost certainly be the starting at the STAR spot next season and he leads the team in interceptions (three) and fumble recoveries (two) this season despite playing around 45% of the team's defensive snaps this season.

In the macro sense, this may handicap Mizzou defensive coordinator Blake Baker's scheme to a degree. Sure, Carnell replaces Manuel, but someone will have to replace Carnell. Baker likes playing with four safeties on the field and with the team's fifth safety Jalani Williams in the transfer portal he will be looking at Tyler Hibbler, Isaac Thompson and Tyler Jones to fill that role. This is assuming Carlies and Joseph Charleston, who missed week 13 versus Arkansas, play.

At the end of the day, this all comes back to the pass rush and how Wake Forest likes to spread the ball. Even the best secondaries can be had if it's tasked with guarding wide receivers for more than three seconds. If Hartman gets too much time in the pocket the defense as a whole could be reeling.

Leadership

This is more about Manuel and McGuire since the two were team captains and in Manuel's case, he's a two-time team captain.

The pair not participating in the bowl game may be more impactful leading up to the game than it is on the field. Obviously, their presence on the field will be missed, but before the contest itself, there are a lot of distractions around this program.

It's the holiday season, some players have already hit the portal while some are waiting until after the game to leave and then some are thinking about declaring for the draft. A lot of players could have their minds on a lot of different things other than Wake Forest, and while that's understandable, if this team lacks focus it will be looking at its second straight 6-7 season.

Mizzou still has six other captains in Barrett Banister, Brady Cook, Tauskie Dove and Foster on offense as well as Chad Bailey and Robinson on defense. So, there is more than enough leadership on the team sans Manuel and McGuire, but Manuel is probably the most vocal leader of the eight. McGuire is probably the most positive and leads by example in his leadership and all of those different styles matter when there are still over 65-70 players still on the roster.

It's good to have different types of leaders with experience. It just happens to be that two of Missouri's best leaders are also two of some of its best players.

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