What NBA Draft analysts are saying about Brown, Hodge

There weren’t many players in college basketball more productive than Kobe Brown this season. The forward averaged 15.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game as a senior, leading Mizzou to a 25-10 record this year and a second-round appearance in the NCAA tournament.

Brown ranked in the top 500 among all Division I players of almost every advanced metric. Yet, through the grand majority of the season, Brown appeared to be off the NBA Draft radar. Most sites that cover the draft had Brown ranked outside their top 80 of the best players available, let alone their top 60.

It’s one of the reasons Brown drew the attention of Maxwell Baumbach, a writer for NoCeilings.com.

“Guys that produce that way at the high major level always play in the NBA,” Baumbach said. “It's not a guarantee that you'll stick around, you'll be a starter or you'll have a decade-long career. But if you produce like that, generally, you're going to play in the NBA at some point. So to me, it's just like, ‘Hey, this guy is hiding in plain sight. This is clearly a guy who will be on an NBA floor at some point in time, so it's time to start talking about him.’”

Baumbach penned a prospect overview on Brown in late February, analyzing how Brown might fit if he were to make the leap to the NBA. Brown’s stock has steadily improved since then — most draftniks now have him being selected at some point in the second round, including Baumbach.

The same goes for Matt Babcock, a senior analyst for Draft Digest, which is published by Sports Illustrated. In his most recent Big Board released on Saturday, Babcock has Brown ranked as the No. 49 prospect.

“I'm curious how many early entrants decide to stay in the draft or return to school. That could potentially affect Brown's draft status quite a bit,” Babcock said. “However, regardless, I see him as a solid option for teams selecting throughout the second round.”

There are a few factors working against Brown. One is his age — Brown was born on Jan. 1, 2000, meaning he’s currently 23 years old and will turn 24 next season. Baumbach pointed out most players don’t get significantly better after age 26, limiting Brown’s developmental runway. It’s the reason why the bulk of lottery picks are typically 19-year-olds who’ve played just one season of college ball.

Another is Brown’s 3-point shot. Brown made 55 of his 112 attempts this season, which Babcock notes “doesn’t happen by accident.” It was, however, the first time in Brown’s career that he shot above 30% from deep. He made more 3s in his senior season than he did in the past three years combined.

Having that dramatic of a shooting spike late in your career is uncommon but isn’t unheard of. In his prospect overview, Baumbach found 35 players since 2014 who saw a 10% increase in their 3-point percentage the year before they got drafted. But of the 35, just 13 were upperclassmen and Los Angeles Clippers guard Terrance Mann has been the only member of the group who’s sustained his high level of shooting in the NBA.

Brown’s smaller sample size may dampen the confidence of how well he can shoot it at the next level for some teams.

“I think what Kobe has going for him, as opposed to a lot of those other people, is that he's comfortable shooting from NBA range,” Baumbach said. “He's also a good free throw shooter, which is generally a solid indicator. And his volume was a lot higher than a lot of those other guys that didn't maintain their percentage.

“I don't think he's a very dynamic shooter. Like, if you park him in the corner, he can knock down a shot and make it. But I also think there are a lot of guys that can do that at a good level and maybe offer a bit more elsewhere, maybe have a bit more potential or athleticism. So I think it's gotta be really good at the next level if he's going to carve out a real rotation role on a great team.”

The Huntsville, Ala. native likely isn’t going to be a first-day starter in the NBA. But Baumbach and Babcock agree that Brown could certainly be a contributor wherever he ends up as the second or third man off the bench.

“I view Brown as a strong, tough, and versatile player,” Babcock said. “If he can keep shooting the ball well from outside, like he did this past season, I could easily see him developing into a glue guy and rotational player that could fit into just about any team's scheme.”

Brown will have the opportunity to enhance his stock further when he takes part in the NBA Draft Combine, which takes place in Chicago from May 15-21. Babcock thinks that Brown playing well in the 5-on-5 sessions of the combine could help him the most, similar to how it helped current Oklahoma City Thunder and former Santa Clara wing Jalen Williams become a lottery pick just last year.

After the combine, Brown will have until May 31 to decide whether to remain in the draft or return to school for his final season of eligibility. Brown told PowerMizzou.com last week he’s still playing things by ear, but thinks he would come back if he feels he won't be drafted or is “not in a position to where I'm guaranteed anything.” Another strong year in college could hypothetically soothe any qualms about his shooting and help him inch his way into the first round. Babcock noted that Brown could receive a significant amount of money through his name, image and likeness by going back to school, too.

Baumbach doesn’t think it’s all that good of an option for him, though. The uneasiness about Brown’s age would only be heightened a year from now, and it would be extremely difficult to shoot above 45% from the 3-point line again. If his shooting percentage slips, so would his draft stock.

“(Indiana Pacers guard) Chris Duarte was unbelievable. And like, he was picked in the first round when he was 24, but it's not something you see very often,” Baumbach said. “So if I'm Kobe and my goal is just like, 'I want to play in the NBA and stick in the NBA,' I would stay in (the draft) even if I'm only being told second round or not drafted. Just because I really think he's in kind of a no-win situation going back to school … If he wants to play in the NBA, now is the time to go.”

Both analysts think another Tiger could end up in the NBA next season in graduate senior guard D’Moi Hodge. The Tortola, British Virgin Islands native broke Mizzou’s single-season record and was ranked third in the nation by swiping 91 steals this year. Hodge also proved to be a prolific shooter, sinking 100 of his 250 attempts from long range.

Hodge hasn’t shown to be an exceptional ball-handler and, listed at 6-foot-4, doesn’t have the size to be especially versatile on defense. Being 24 years old, Hodge’s chances of being drafted are slim. But that doesn’t mean he won’t find his way onto a team. And with no college eligibility remaining, going pro is his only choice.

Baumbach envisions Hodge signing a two-way contract after the draft is over, which would allow him to split time between the NBA and the G League. Baumbach doesn’t think Hodge’s main competition is with the teenagers in this year’s draft class, but rather players who are already in the pros who’ve bounced around a bit and haven’t secured a consistent role.

The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement, which goes into effect on July 1, will allow teams to carry an additional player on a two-way contract, bumping the total up to three per team and essentially opening up 30 extra roster spots across the league. Hodge will participate in the G League Elite Camp in Chicago on May 13-14. He could earn an invitation to the NBA Draft Combine by performing well there — seven prospects from last year's camp received invites. If Hodge isn’t signed immediately after the draft, he could get another opportunity to prove himself by playing in the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas.

“In recent years, the NBA has done a great job of making it easier for players like Hodge to claw their way in,” Babcock said. “For example, he was invited to the G League Elite Camp, which is coming up, and is a precursor to the NBA Draft Combine. So that will be an excellent opportunity for him to gain exposure from all the right people. He shoots the ball well and defends, which are both extremely valuable attributes. So with that said, I'm certainly not writing him off.”

The NBA Draft takes place on June 23 in Brooklyn, N.Y. Both Brown and Hodge will know much more about what’s next in their basketball careers by then.

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