Will they or won't they? Causes for optimism and concern for 2018 season

It’s been written on this website many times, because it’s true: The 2018 football season will be a make-or-break one for Missouri football coach Barry Odom. After going 4-8 during Odom’s first season and starting last year 1-5, the Tigers engineered a six-game winning streak to finish the regular season 7-5 and earn a bid to the Texas Bowl. Now, with quarterback Drew Lock and defensive tackle Terry Beckner back for their senior seasons, Odom likely needs the team to take another step forward in order to assure athletics director Jim Sterk that he can guide Missouri to long-term success.

We will define a step forward as winning more games than a season ago, so at least eight (counting a bowl game). If Missouri does that, Odom will likely have enough security to weather a down season or two following the departure of Lock and Beckner. On the flip side, if the Tigers take a step backward and win six games or fewer, it could spell doom for Odom — maybe not right away, but eventually.

Here’s three reasons to believe 2018 will be a step forward for Missouri, and three reasons to be concerned that the team might take a step back and win six games or fewer.

Why Missouri will win more than seven games:

1. Most of last year's offensive playmakers are back.

The Tigers led the SEC in both total offense and scoring offense a season ago. The team’s gaudy offensive numbers were partially a product of former offensive coordinator Josh Heupel’s up-tempo, spread system, and new offensive coordinator Derek Dooley will likely look to slow the pace down a bit this season, but clearly that offense featured some playmakers. This year, nearly all of the team’s offensive weapons are back. Missouri is returning all five of its starting linemen from a season ago, two experienced running backs in Damarea Crockett and Larry Rountree III, and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, who burst onto the scene a season ago and led all SEC tight ends with 11 touchdown catches. Oh, and Lock, who set an SEC record by throwing 44 touchdown passes a season ago. He’ll be back, too (more on him soon).

While wide receiver is a position of concern due to the departure of last year’s leading receiver, J’Mon Moore, Missouri should have the offensive firepower to score on just about anybody this season.

2. The schedule features another manageable back half.

Missouri’s turnaround last season resulted in part from facing a series of struggling opponents with either lame-duck head coaches or coaches who had already been fired. Obviously, those circumstances can’t be counted on to occur again. However, it seems reasonable to expect those teams that underwent coaching changes — Tennessee, Florida and Arkansas — to experience some growing pains this season. The Tigers’ final four games of the regular season come against those three teams and Vanderbilt. Barring a miraculous turnaround by one of those first-year coaches, each of those games should be winnable, and if Missouri does win all four of those games, it shouldn’t be difficult to find four other wins on its schedule.

3. Drew Lock and Terry Beckner are back.

It’s been said by others this offseason, but it bears repeating: The biggest recruiting feat of Odom’s tenure at Missouri was convincing Lock and Beckner to spurn the NFL Draft and return to school for their senior seasons. As a result, both sides of the ball will have an obvious leader and go-to guy when someone simply needs to make a play.

Beckner will anchor a defensive line that has the potential to be dominant, particularly against the run. As long as he can stay healthy, he will demand extra attention from offenses, which should make the players around him better. And on the other side of the ball, the importance of good quarterback play cannot be overstated. As Lock’s numbers from a season ago show, he has at times been more than good. Opposing defenses simply won’t face a player with Lock’s arm strength all season. The knocks on Lock have been inconsistency against better competition and spotty decision-making, but if he can improve in those areas, it’s not difficult to imagine Missouri competing in all of its games this season.

Why Missouri will win six games or fewer:

1. Derek Dooley is likely to face growing pains in his first year calling plays.

Missouri’s hire of Dooley this offseason, after he was fired as the wide receivers coach for the Dallas Cowboys, prompted some head-scratching. Not only did Dooley struggle in his last college coaching job (he was fired after three seasons as the head coach at Tennessee), he has never held an offensive coordinator position in the past. Dooley appears to have won over the players with his easy-going demeanor, but it’s not difficult to envision some early-season struggles as he and the players adjust to the new system. If the offense does struggle, it’s fair to wonder whether the first-time coordinator will be able to adapt. If he cannot, Missouri is in trouble. Simply put: If the Tigers don’t score points in bunches this season, it’s hard to envision the team getting to seven wins.

2. Several questions need to be answered on defense.

As for the reason why it will be so important for Missouri to put up big numbers offensively this season, the defense faces a couple areas of concern. Last season, the Tigers ranked 83rd in the country in total defense, and 93rd in scoring defense. It improved in the second half of the season, once defensive backs coach Ryan Walters replaced Demontie Cross as defensive coordinator, but this year, Walters will have to find players to fill holes at defensive end and safety.

Missouri has a plethora of talented interior defensive linemen, but lost both of its starting defensive ends from a season ago. Defensive line coach Brick Haley has said that interior linemen like Jordan Elliott and Akial Byers will line up on the edge as well as the interior this season, and sophomore defensive end Tre Williams has also shown flashes of promise as an edge rusher, so the Tigers have options. They just need someone to step up and establish himself as a pass-rusher that demands extra attention — a staple of good Missouri defenses in recent years. Meanwhile, in the secondary, the Tigers lost both starting safeties from a season ago, as Anthony Sherrils graduated and Kaleb Prewett was indefinitely suspended and is not expected to return to the team. Cam Hilton and Ronnell Perkins have the most experience of the returning safeties, but neither has inspired much confidence with his performance in the past, and Perkins has now been converted to more of an nickelback-outside linebacker hybrid. Someone will need to emerge as a dependable playmaker at safety, or Missouri could find itself vulnerable to big plays all season.

3. Another slow start could prove disastrous.

The Tigers needed to reel off six consecutive wins a year ago because of a terrible start to the season. Following a season-opening win over Missouri State, Missouri lost its next five games. Slow starts have characterized Odom’s brief tenure so far — in 2016, the Tigers were 2-4 at the midseason mark, with the two wins coming against Delaware State and Eastern Michigan.

Missouri should be heavily favored in both of its first two games this season, against Tennessee-Martin and Wyoming. After that, another slow start could prove fatal for Odom. The team’s Week 3 matchup with Purdue could be the deciding game of this year’s schedule. Avenge last year’s 35-3 loss to the Boilermakers, and Missouri will carry some momentum into a brutal three-game stretch: home against Georgia, at South Carolina, at Alabama. If it starts 3-0, Missouri could afford to lose all three of those games and still realistically reach eight wins. If the Tigers lose to Purdue again, however, it’s difficult to envision them winning any of the next three games. And if Odom starts the season 2-4 again, fan support for the program would likely hit a new low during his tenure.