2016 Tiger Mailbag: 28th Edition
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Each week, PowerMizzou.com publisher Gabe DeArmond answers questions from Tiger fans in the mailbag. This format allows for a more expansive answer than a message board post. If you missed this week's mailbag, keep an eye out next week or send your question to Gabe at powermizzou@gmail.com. On to this week's entries.
mglassma asks: This question has to do with amount of hype attached to K9 compared to Jonathan Johnson? Both came in as freshman and received rave reviews in fall camp. Based on the noise, what you have witnessed, what players and coaches have said etc. Is this the same as what we heard regardingJohnson from a year ago or are there more positive things being said/ higher expectations being set for K9? On paper the only Missouri offensive player that you could designate as above average ( based on stats in College or game film) would be Ross and that would be as a kick returner. Agree or disagree?
GD: I would say they are pretty similar. The difference is, we saw Johnson with our own two eyes in the scrimmage and with Mason we're going more on what we've been told than what we've seen. But both are on the two deep and both are going to play plenty.
As to the second question, yes, based on what they've actually done in college, I would say that's correct. You could maybe say J'Mon Moore and Ish Witter were college average (maybe that's being generous). Other than that, I think it's fair, based on WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON SATURDAYS to say that the players are going to have to bump their performance up a few notches for this season to be what anyone wants it to be.
mglassma asks: Game one over under (questions below)
GD:
29 yds rushing for Zanders--Under
220/yds passing for Lock--Under
11/combined receptions for Moore and Black--Under
1/sacks for Charles Harris--Over
1.5 tfl's for Beckner--Over
35 longest pass completion--Over
21.5 longest rushing attempt--Over
4.5 total sacks for D-line--Under
3.5 total combined catches for tight ends--Over
1.5 total turnovers by our offense--Under
mexicojoe asks: Odom has a background as a defensive player, position coach, coordinator, and is now the head coach. He has an experienced D and as yet unproven O. Do you think he will be a risk taker with the O with confidence the D can hold, or do you think he will play close to the vest knowing he has a competent D and try to win a close game?
GD: From listening to him on Monday, I think that question should more be asked about Josh Heupel. I think Odom is largely going to let Heupel run the show on offense and only jump in or veto if he has very strong feelings on something. That said, I think we're going to see some adventure on offense. I'm not sure Missouri has the talent to just line up and beat West Virginia play for play in their house. I think they're going to need a couple big plays and they're going to have to take some risks. I think they'll do that. It will change as the season goes on, but for this game, that's my opinion.
jworr asks: Brian's gone. Pete's leaving. Do you feel like everyone you've ever known and loved is abandoning you?
GD: My oldest son moved away to college this weekend too. WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON? IS IT ME?
lotigerfan asks: If you're the new AD, knowing we're in the SEC and know how important recruiting is to the program, don't you have to fast track some facility upgrades just give Barry Odom a fighting chance?
GD: I know Sterk and Odom are hoping to get things moving sooner rather than later. But it's not just as simple as saying, "Build it and we'll find the money later." From talking to some people, Sterk is already making calls and assessing the financial lay of the land and I do think we'll see Missouri moving on these relatively quickly. But they can't just start building tomorrow and worrying about funding it later.
mexicojoe asks: An educated guess as to the score at halftime?
GD: There's really nothing educated about it, but 17-7 West Virginia.
Mizzoufan89 asks: I believe that locker room intangibles are a big part of the success or failure of a season. Last year, there were rumblings that the team was not cohesive. I am convinced that if our team was 8-2 looking for an SEC east title, there would have been no walkout/protest. What is your opinion of the "state of the team" this year? Are last year's issues truly behind the team?
GD: I agree with all of your statements. Chemistry is important and Missouri had zero of it last year. I also think the walkout doesn't happen if Mizzou was having a good year. As far as this team, they seem to like each other and say the right things, but chemistry doesn't really get tested until you have some adversity. What if they're sitting 2-4 after the Florida game? What's the chemistry like then.
But regardless, I don't think it will be related to last year. There's been a cleansing. Pretty much everybody (above a player level) who had anything at all--or was even rumored to have had anything at all--to do with last November is now gone. So if chemistry issues do arise, I don't think they'll be related to last year in any way.
mexicojoe asks: Are you in favor of a Power 5 team has the season opener on the road? Would your answer change if it was a home game? Neutral site game?
GD: I'm in favor of compelling matchups that entertain me. I don't care where they're played (although if I'm honest, I wish every game was a home game and kicked off at 9 a.m.). But yes, I like this game. I hated the schedule that gave us four rummies in September because it felt like while a lot of the country was covering and watching games that mattered, I was waiting until September 1st. I'm a huge fan of this game to start the season, though I certainly understand why coaches aren't.
mufootball1 asks: Last season West Virginia averaged 34 points per game. Mizzou will field a significantly better defense than WVU faced in the Big 12 last season. Why does nearly everyone expect WVU to score in the range of 30 points?
GD: I don't know who "nearly everyone" is, but West Virginia scored 26 at Oklahoma last year. They can move the ball on offense. And there are just so many unknowns about Mizzou. The optimists are looking at it saying "We know the defense will be as good as last year, so it's just about the offense improving." You can't just assume that. It might be true, but we don't know. It's why preseason predictions are dumb. All we have to go on is last year. And last year is pretty meaningless, especially for a team like Missouri that has a new coaching staff and all new players. Maybe the defense is just as good. Maybe it's better. Or maybe it's worse and the team is still better because the offense is better. Finally, 30 points really isn't all that out of the ordinary. You said WVU averaged 34 last year. So I picked them to score 27 and I'm saying Mizzou does a touchdown better job against WVU than teams did last year. That's not insignificant and probably shouldn't be taken as an insult to the Mizzou defense in my opinion. Lastly--and I think people either are ignoring or underrating this--I think Missouri's defensive numbers were helped last year by the fact that teams often weren't even really trying to score on them because they didn't have to. Tennessee scored 19 points, but knew that was more than enough to win. Arkansas 21, same story. Vandy and Georgia pretty much ran three plays and punted all day and won. I know this will be taken as me taking credit away from Mizzou's defense, but that's not my intent. I'm just saying if you face a team that you're pretty certain isn't scoring more than 14, there's not much reason to go up-tempo, wing the ball around the field trying to score 30 when you can be conservative, run the clock, protect the ball, keep your team healthy, score 20 and still win by two scores.
MIZUVA8512 asks: From your memory, does this preseason feel similar to 2007 or 2013 when Mizzou wasn't getting a lot of preseason love but ended up with great seasons? IMO the talent is there, but unproven. Does the talent on this team match up with those great Tiger teams?What rough percentage of the snaps do you think Drew Lock takes this year? Besides Harris, do any other Tigers have a chance to go in the first round assuming they have a great 2016 season?
GD: I will go in reverse order. I don't see another first rounder on the roster for this year. Beckner has a chance, but can't go this year.
I'll say Lock takes about 80% of the snaps, health willing.
On the first question, let's clear up a misconception. In 2007, most people thought Missouri was going to be good. Not top five in the country push for a national title good, but I picked them 9-3 and Big 12 North champs. I think a lot of people picked them to win the division. 2013 came completely out of nowhere, but in hindsight, we gave too little credence to the havoc injuries wreaked on the season in 2012.
As for the rest of your question, you say "IMO the talent is there but unproven." I think this is where fans are incapable of removing their own biases from looking at their own team. If another team had Missouri's roster coming back from last season, you'd look at it and say "They're going to be terrible. They don't have anybody who's done anything except a few guys on defense." I mean, look at the way Mizzou fans view Tennessee. The highly ranked recruiting classes Butch Jones got the last 2-3 years now finally form the backbone of a team that finished last season really hot. But Missouri fans look at it and go "They have a lot of unproven guys and they've never done it and I think they're going to underachieve." A Vols fan will say "Our big time talent is finally getting on the field and even though a lot of them haven't proven it yet, look how much potential we have."
Now I'm not saying either of those statements is right or wrong. We don't know. But I think every fan in every sport overrates the potential of guys that haven't yet done it for their team while dismissing the unproven potential on other teams. It's the nature of being a fan.
muenger03 asks: Typically, how many 4 star football players are there outside of the Rivals 250?
GD: I think it usually comes out with about 30-50 four-stars who fall outside the top 250. I could be a little under on that number.
mizzou1971 asks: With Pete gone and you heading to Morgantown, who's minding the store? But seriously, have you hired anyone to help cover MIZZOU?
GD: I'm still going to be on the site. Most planes have wifi (and I have a personal hot spot I can use at any time). Alex Schiffer is taking on a little more responsibility now that he's back in town, helping me cover home games and recruiting. Our site will have two reporters, a photographer and a video guy at all seven home games. From 2003 to about 2008, I did the vast majority of content and moderation on the site. I know how to do it. With a smart phone, it's not difficult to stay connected. I haven't hired a full-time replacement for Pete and may not for a little while. I'm going to get this done right, not get it done fast. I'm looking at a number of people, having some ongoing discussions and am going to make a move that makes the site the best it can be. I don't have a timetable for it. If it means I work my ass off for four months during football season before I get a permanent replacement, that's what it means. I've already had a number of colleagues in the network reach out to offer help. We'll be all right. Don't worry about us.
Djohn2010 asks: We've seen the guys atop the depth chart for game one. Assuming no injuries, what three WRs do you think are starters when the end of the season rolls around? Also, what freshman (True or RS) do you think has the biggest impact on game one?
GD: I think J'Mon Moore, Chris Black and Emanuel Hall are the starters at the end of the year, assuming no injuries. I'd say Dimetrios Mason and Johnathon Johnson are the next two up. And I'll take Johnson and Tucker McCann as the two freshmen with the biggest impact this weekend.
Kyle DeVries asks: Jonathon Johnson appears to have the edge over Chris Black on the depth chart. I think we all kind of assumed Black would start. Should we be excited about Johnson or disappointed about Black?
GD: First off, I don't think Johnson has the edge. It's listed as an "OR" which means either one could start and it will likely be determined in practice the next three days. As for your question, you can look at it either way you choose. I don't think it matters who starts. I'll trust that the coaching staff is putting out the guys that they think are best equipped to win the game rather than worrying about whether a guy is exceeding or failing to meet mythical expectations we had three months ago.
SEC EAST X 2 asks: West Virginia has a new offensive coordinator Wickline (from Texas Longhorns) but a lot of returning offensive players; do you have any speculation if they'll be changing their offense this year?
GD: I haven't heard anything like that. Dana Holgerson is an offensive guy. It will probably be similar to the Mizzou defense. There will be a few new wrinkles and personal touches from the new guy, but the basic approach will be the same.
mglassma asks: Should we be concerned that our freshman scholarship kicker has not definitively beaten out the walk-on from Kansas for place kicking duties?
GD: Similar to the question about Black and Johnson, to me, you trust they put the best guy out there. If Turner Adams is the kicker, maybe it means he's just a whole lot better than anyone thought. Were you concerned when Jeff Wolfert beat out Adam Crossett? It turned out fine. I remain convinced that most fans, even those who complain about them, put far too much stock in recruiting rankings and pre-college hype. The coaches are going to play the best guy the vast majority of the time (with this staff in year one, I'd say all of the time). Now, maybe their judgment ends up being wrong, but unless you know a guy personally, I don't think there's much point in getting invested in "I really hope this guy beats out that guy." It doesn't matter. You trust the coaches to put the best 22 (26 including specialists) on the field. If that's Spencer Williams, great. If it's Nate Howard, great. If it's Jordan Harold, also great. Just put the best player out there for the most snaps.
austinanderson asks: Much has been written about the failures of the OLine last year, all of the responsible parties are no longer involved with MU, Gabe take a stand on this issue, who was the ultimate responsible party for last years performance, was it the Position Coach, was it the OCoordinator, was it the former Position Coach resigning late, or was it the Head Coach where the buck rested?
GD: I'm not going to "take a stand" just to take one when I can't tell you definitively. I know the "hot take culture" is real popular right now, but that's not me. I'm not going to say something just to have an opinion. I will say first that the buck always always always stops with the head coach. If the wrong guy was out there, that's on him. If a guy was playing through an injury he shouldn't have been playing through because there was a better option elsewhere, that's on him. If a guy was playing out of position because they didn't think they had anybody else who could play there and it made the whole line worse, that's on him. Generally the position coach will recommend what he thinks the depth should be. But he can be overruled by the coordinator and the coordinator can be overruled by the head coach. Gary Pinkel (and every coach worth his salt) always said that every decision that was made was his decision to make. So if the wrong guy's playing, that's the head coach's fault.