Every week, PowerMizzou.com publisher Gabe DeArmond answers questions from Tiger fans in the mailbag. This format allows for a more expansive answer than a message board post. Keep your eye out each week to submit your question for the mailbag or send them to powermizzou@gmail.com. On to this week's inquiries.
TigerCruise asks: Can Cuonzo build a successful program on top 150 kids, or do you believe he has to have 1-2 top 50 kids a year? Everyone has missed on St. Louis top 50 kids over the last 20 years, why does everyone expect him to change that, because he went to ESL?
GD: He has to. Missouri isn't getting one or two top 50 kids a year. It just isn't likely to happen. Now it isn't impossible, especially as much talent as comes out of St. Louis and plays for both Brad Beal Elite and MoKan on a regular basis. But realistically, a program like Mizzou is going to be built on guys like Marcus Denmon and Javon Pickett and Mike Dixon and the like. Good players. Top 150 players. But not "elite" recruits.
There are so many prongs to this. First, I think the "elite" level in college basketball is probably top 25. There are about 25-30 five-stars in any given year. I think those are generally the guys that are no-doubt blue chip recruits for the most part. After that, the truth is I don't think there's much of a difference between player 33 and 133. It's about fit and environment and development and work ethic. Mizzou won't get a ton of those top 25 guys, but there's no reason they can't get some. For example, they've got a connection with Josh Christopher and I think Caleb Love will end up being a five-star when it's all said and done in 2020. So in situations like that, you need to close on one of those guys (I'll explain why later).
But mostly, you want your class filled with top 150 guys. I think the ideal class for Mizzou is a top 25 player, two top 100 players and a player between 100 and 150 that fills a role on the roster right away. If you can stack classes like that together, you're going to be successful. You don't have to have the top 25 guy every year to win. Classes like the 2019 one (Tray Jackson is 77 and Mario McKinney is 140 and they're gonna add another couple of pieces) will definitely get you to the NCAA Tournament if you keep putting them together every year and develop them.
But to win BIG in college basketball, you need the stars (and you need them to be healthy). I understand what Tennessee and Texas Tech are doing this year. The truth is, that's the exception. Since the McDonald's all-American Game started in 1982, there has been exactly one team that won a national title without one on the roster. And that was a Maryland team that had Juan Dixon, Steve Blake, Lonnie Baxter and Chris Wilcox. Beyond that, every single team that's won it has had a high school all American on the roster. You can win conferences without them. You can make a Final Four without them (I would argue it's actually a much more impressive accomplishment to win the SEC than it is to make the Final Four, but that's a different discussion).
So I guess my short answer at the end of a long answer is not only can Cuonzo be successful recruiting outside the top 50, but he might have to be. That said, there's no reason a program like Missouri shouldn't be able to land top 50 players somewhat regularly. Mizzou should rarely sign guys outside the top 150 to be honest. People compare football rankings and basketball rankings way too much. In football, there are about 300 to 350 four-stars every year. In basketball, there are more like 125. When you consider there are 66 high-major programs and that Missouri should be a better program than a lot of them, signing two four-stars every year should be the expectation, not a surprise.
I counted 31 teams from the "Power Five" conferences in this year's NCAA Tournament. Twenty-seven of them have at least one four-star signed for the 2019 class. Twenty-one of them have at least two. Only Kansas State, Iowa State, Wisconsin and Baylor do not have a signee higher than a three-star in this class. Missouri should sign two four-stars every year. They do not have to be top 50 players, but the minimum should be two four-star prospects in every class. Either you're doing that or you're better at identifying talent than your peers or you're sitting at home for the NCAA Tournament. That's what the numbers say.
Truthfully, Cuonzo's recruiting has been good enough to be at that level in his first two years. But the one thing he hasn't been able to do is prevent those players from getting hurt.
