Everything is back on the table for the Missouri Tigers. And not in a good way. Not after a 90-87 overtime loss to last-place-in-the-SEC-no-full-time-coach Mississippi on Tuesday night.
NIT? Yeah, it’s on the table. The NCAA Tournament isn’t off of it, but we’ll get to that in a minute. Let’s dissect just how we get here, after Missouri lost the one game left on its schedule it absolutely couldn’t lose.
The Tigers came out sleepwalking in this one. After a Jeremiah Tilmon dunk gave Missouri a 2-0 lead, Mizzou would not lead again until 4:56 was left in regulation.
But the frustrating part wasn’t how poorly they played for most of the night against a team that had lost seven straight games by an average of 15 points (the closest game in that span was Mizzou’s 75-69 win in Oxford). That part was bad, but what was worse was that Missouri overcame it.
After falling behind 56-43, Missouri would go on an extended run to take an 81-76 lead on a Jordan Barnett dunk with 2:11 left. What happened then? Well, Missouri happened.
“Same thing that it’s usually been. Couldn’t close out the game. Turnovers down the stretch,” Barnett said. “Same old, same old.”
That dunk would be the Tigers’ last field goal of the game. Ole Miss began to apply pressure (yes, it’s fair to ask why every team doesn’t start doing this much sooner against the Tigers) following a turnover with 1:52 left. At that time, Missouri had the ball and a five-point lead. Here is what followed:
Jordan Geist turnover
Ole Miss free throws
Kassius Robertson turnover
Ole Miss free throws
Kassius Robertson turnover
The Rebels did not capitalize on that one. Missouri still held an 81-80 lead with the ball and 29 seconds to go. After the teams traded free throws, Geist went to the line with 12 seconds left and the Tigers up a point. To that point, Missouri had missed only five of 21 free throw attempts. They would miss six of their last ten, starting with Geist splitting a pair and allowing Breein Tyree to tie the game on a jumper in the lane with three seconds to go. (Side note: Ole Miss was 15-for-16 from the line).
In overtime, Missouri would not make a field goal. The Tigers would go just 3-for-8 from the free throw line, missing five of six after Jontay Porter gave them a lead with two at the line with 2:27 to play.
“We’ll continue to work on it,” Cuonzo Martin said. “I try not to talk about it as much, just work on it, get in practice and knock them down. We’re obviously a better free throw shooting than the last two games.”
The loss was hideous. There are other words for it. Kevin Puryear said some of them: “That’s just inexcusable. Lack of focus, lack of toughness. It’s embarrassing actually to have 21 turnovers on your home floor.”
The immediate overriding reaction is that the season is over. The run was fun, but Missouri is going to the NIT. And maybe it ends up being true. But if you’re capable of taking a step back from the prisoner-of-the-moment mentality, let’s talk about why it isn’t true yet.
Mizzou has three regular season games left. This team has been buried twice this season. The first time came two minutes into the season when Michael Porter Jr. walked gingerly to the bench never (at least so far) to play again for the Tigers. The second came after a 74-62 loss at Mississippi State, Missouri’s third in a row by double figures, that left them 13-8 and just 3-5 in the SEC, sitting squarely on the wrong side of the bubble.
Missouri answered the bell both times. Can they do it again?
“We’ve endured some adversity already,” Puryear said. “We’re more than capable of stringing games together and playing at a high level. But we’ve got to get together.”
Here’s what it will take: Missouri’s got to win three more games. At this point, it doesn't really matter when or where. The loss to the Rebels was the second “Quad 3” loss of the season, joining the inexplicable debacle against Illinois. Those losses hurt badly. You almost have to win an extra game to make up for them.
The Tigers have three regular season games left. They’re at Kentucky on Saturday. Mizzou beat the Wildcats 69-60 in Columbia back on February 3rd. They’ll then go to Vanderbilt a week from tonight to face the Commodores, who are 11-17 overall and 5-10 in the SEC, but have won their last five home games. The regular season finale comes March 3rd against Arkansas, which is tied with the Tigers at 8-7 in the league, but just 2-5 outside of Fayetteville.
They are—like pretty much every game in this conference—all winnable. Not, of course, if Missouri plays the way it did Tuesday night. But they’re all winnable. Win them and you are in the tournament. Win two and you’ll go to St. Louis, likely playing now on Thursday in the second round, needing one win to make absolutely sure you’re in. They might get in without that third win, but they probably wouldn't rest easy until Selection Sunday.
It looks a long way off right now. Especially after the effort Missouri put forth on Tuesday night. The Rebels shoved Missouri a decent distance toward the wrong side of the cut line. But they didn’t push the Tigers over it.
Missouri has three days to lick its wounds. Then it has eight days to save its season.
