Bye week reset: What we've learned so far, and what to watch moving forward
As you probably noticed, Missouri didn’t play a football game yesterday. The Tigers had their annual idle week. A quarter of the way into the football season, Missouri stands where most fans likely expected they would. The Tigers are 3-1, with wins over Tennessee-Martin, Wyoming and Purdue and its lone loss against No. 2 Georgia. While the record isn’t a surprise, we’ve answered several preseason questions about 2018 team, and a few new questions have arisen.
Here’s three things we’ve learned about this Missouri team during the first four weeks of the season, and three keys we’ll be watching during the final eight weeks.
What we've learned:
1. Missouri’s pass defense is a still a major concern
A season ago, the Tigers ranked 107th nationally defending the pass. Even though both of the team’s starting safeties departed during the offseason, Barry Odom said during fall camp he felt this season’s secondary was the best Missouri has had since he took over as head coach. But then Purdue quarterback David Blough threw for a school-record 572 yards in the Tigers’ 40-37 Week Three win, and all the fears held by fans entering the season re-surfaced.
Against Purdue, the fault didn’t lie entirely with the secondary. Missouri’s pass rush, or lack thereof, is perhaps the biggest concern facing the defense moving forward. The Tiger linebackers have struggled in coverage as well. Regardless, the biggest takeaway is that for Missouri to win games this season, it’s going to have to rely on its offense.
2. Even in a different offensive system, Drew Lock is going to score a lot of touchdowns
When Derek Dooley took over as Missouri’s offensive coordinator, some speculated that Lock’s stats would dip a bit from his record-setting 2017 campaign, now that the Tigers weren’t running Josh Heupel’s run-and-gun scheme. While there have been a few noticeable differences between Dooley’s offense and Heupel’s, namely more variations in tempo, Lock has continued to put up big numbers. During the Tigers’ first three games of the season, Lock threw 10 touchdowns, despite playing just over two quarters against Tennessee-Martin and three quarters against Wyoming. While he was held without a score against Georgia’s vaunted defense, Lock notched his third rushing touchdown of the season against the Bulldogs. Lock’s Heisman campaign, far-fetched to begin with, likely ended against Georgia, but during the first three games, he at times looked even better than last season.
3. Emanuel Hall has become an all-around weapon ... when he’s healthy
Hall burst onto the scene as a deep threat a season ago, and during the offseason he told reporters that he expanded his route-running abilities under the tutelage of new wide receivers coach A.J. Ofodile. During the Tigers’ first three games of the season, Hall showed both his vertical ability and his versatility. In the season-opener, he burned Tennessee-Martin for 171 yards and two scores, then followed that up with a career-high 10 catches for 171 more yards the following week. Even against Purdue, when Hall missed most of the game due to injury, he re-entered the contest and provided a huge 25-yard catch and run on the final drive.
Against Georgia, however, Hall clearly hadn’t recovered from the groin strain that sidelined him against Purdue, and Bulldog cornerback Deandre Baker rendered him a non-factor. As a result, the rest of the passing game suffered (more on that later). Hall has flashed all-conference level ability at times this season, but the Tiger offense needs him to get healthy during the bye week and stay that way moving forward.
Storylines to watch the rest of the season:
1. Who do the Tigers turn to if Hall is taken away?
Following the loss to Georgia, Lock was asked about the Bulldogs’ holding Hall without a catch. He responded, “if they want to do that, then by all means, do that. We’ll find other ways to win.”
The offensive performance against Georgia suggested otherwise. While Hall’s ineffectiveness may have had more to do with his injury than Georgia’s defensive strategy, the fact remained that Missouri’s passing attack struggled without him. The game plan for future opponents has to be take Hall away and see if someone else can beat them. Based off the first three weeks, it’s not clear any of the other Tiger pass catchers will be capable of doing so. Johnathon Johnson and Jalen Knox have had sporadic success, but neither was able to generate much separation against Georgia’s secondary. Tight end Albert Okwuegbunam was the only player who showed he could win one-on-one matchups against the Bulldogs, but he has struggled with consistency and ball security this season. If Hall isn’t able to recreate his production from the first three weeks moving forward, all three of those players will likely have to pick up the slack. (It’s also worth noting that Missouri should get receiver Richaud Floyd back after the bye week. His addition certainly can’t hurt.)
2. Can the defense generate a pass rush?
As stated above, Missouri’s defense has struggled mightily to pressure opposing quarterbacks. The Tigers have just three sacks on the season — tied for 87th nationally — and only one in their two games against Power Five competition. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters might try turning to different defensive ends in passing situations, such as freshmen defensive ends Jatorian Hansford and Trajan Jeffcoat, but more likely the Tigers are going to have to blitz more often and more effectively in the future in order to ensure opposing quarterbacks don’t have all day to pick apart the secondary.
3. Can Missouri come through against better competition?
Even though Missouri has won nine of its last 11 games, only six of those nine wins have come over teams from Power Five conferences. All six of those teams either finished last season with a losing record or (in the case of Purdue) have a losing record this year. Needless to say, the big question facing Barry Odom remains whether his team can beat another team bound for the postseason. The Tigers’ next game presents a golden opportunity to prove, both to itself and others, that it can do so, as they will travel to South Carolina. Other key games that would instill confidence that Odom’s teams can beat better competition will come at Florida and against Kentucky. Missouri could still wind up with another 7-5 record if it loses all three of those games (plus the game at Alabama), but winning one or two would represent a significant step forward for Odom in his third year on the job. Win all three, and a New Year’s Six bowl could be on the table.