Everything we thought we knew about Missouri basketball this season got wrecked along with Jontay Porter's knee a couple of weeks ago. The predictions for the Tigers (mine would have been 20-ish wins and right around the NCAA Tournament bubble) were all based around the Tiger sophomore being an all-SEC caliber player and maybe even in the running for the league's player of the year.
Once Porter went down (along with the fact we aren't yet sure if Dru Smith will be eligible or K.J. Santos will be healthy), the educated part of our educated guess--which was a term we'd have used loosely anyway--went out the window.
But this is 2018 and not having a take is not allowed. So with that, we take a wild guess at what this season might have in store for the Tigers.
THE LINEUP
With Porter down, we think Cuonzo Martin goes a small. Or at least smaller. Kevin Puryear trimmed down quite a bit this offseason, ostensibly to be more athletic and prepared to play the three. We're sliding him back to the four now. Jeremiah Tilmon is your starting big man. We see a three-guard lineup of Jordan Geist, Torrence Watson and newly-eligible Mark Smith as the starting five.
Off the bench you've got Javon Pickett and Xavier Pinson in the backcourt, Reed Nikko and Mitchell Smith in the frontcourt and K.J. Santos wherever you need him if he is healthy and Christian Guess if he isn't. There are other bodies, but they're not likely to provide meaningful minutes in our opinion.
If Missouri completes a Hail Mary and gets Dru Smith eligible, we'd slide him into the starting five, probably in Watson's place. But there's not an expectation that will happen.
THE NON-CONFERENCE
Missouri has a decent, but not great non-conference schedule. Central Arkansas, Kennesaw State, UT-Arlington, Oral Roberts and Morehead State should be wins. UCF and Temple are solid teams, but both are at home and we're going to predict the Tigers to win those as well.
We think Missouri drops an early season road test at Iowa State. A visit from Xavier looks like a loss and until Missouri comes out on top in the Braggin' Rights Game we're just not going to predict it.
The Paradise Jam will pit Missouri against either Oregon State or Old Dominion in the second round. Either could be a test, but we'll say Martin's team passes it. That would likely mean Kansas State in the title game and the Wildcats are too good for the Tigers this year, especially early in the season.
NON-CONFERENCE RECORD: 9-4
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
The SEC may be the country's best conference this season. Missouri was picked ninth with Jontay Porter. Without him, there simply isn't a single game that's a gimme on the schedule.
The opener brings defending champ Tennessee to Columbia. That's a really tough conference opener for the Tigers and one we see them dropping. Mizzou goes to South Carolina. We see a road hiccup there. With Porter, we may have picked the Tigers to win both those games, but without him we forecast an 0-2 start.
Missouri will get back on track beating Alabama at home and find a way to split road games at Texas A&M and Arkansas, both team's forecast in the league's lower half. The next two weeks are the toughest of the season. LSU comes to Columbia, then the Tigers are at Auburn, home against Vanderbilt and on the road at Tennessee. Those teams were all picked above the Tigers in the preseason poll. We'll say Mizzou gets the win over Vandy in CoMo, but falls short in the other three. That leaves them 3-6 a little more than halfway through the league schedule.
We see Mizzou going on a little bit of a run next with home wins over A&M and Arkansas and a win at Ole Miss. But Kentucky comes to town to end the streak at three on Feb. 19.
The Tigers lose at Mississippi State and Florida then beat South Carolina at home. They finish at Georgia and home against Ole Miss, the two teams picked 13th and 14th in the preseason poll. Bumps along the way always happen and we'll pick one to occur at Georgia before the Tigers close out the season with the sweep of Ole Miss.
CONFERENCE RECORD: 8-10
OVERALL RECORD: 17-13
Truth be told, this is a better record than I expect Missouri to have. I went game by game and made picks and went with a couple upsets in their favor and one or two against them. Going game by game, this is where I got. But if you just ask me what the record is, I'd say it's probably a game or two worse, particularly in the SEC.
THE POSTSEASON
Eight league wins could position Mizzou somewhere around 9th or 10th in the standings, possibly a spot higher. Let's say Mizzou finds a way to win one in Nashville in the conference tournament before falling to one of the league's top teams. That would put Mizzou 18-14 and squarely on the bubble to get an NIT bid. The fate would largely be determined by smaller conference favorites doing well in their league tournaments.
THE AWARDS
Leading Scorer: Kevin Puryear
Leading Rebounder: Jeremiah Tilmon
Team MVP: Jordan Geist
Top Newcomer: Mark Smith
