Five things to watch during Mizzou's basketball season opener
The Missouri basketball team returns to the hardwood against Central Michigan Tuesday night for perhaps its most intriguing season-opening contest since Cuonzo Martin’s debut season. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m.
This year’s Tiger team doesn’t enter the season with near the expectations of the 2017-18 squad, nor is Central Michigan, which finished 3-13 in the MAC last season and replaced head coach Keno Davis with Tony Barbee, expected to provide much competition. But Tuesday’s season-opener will provide a first glimpse at the most mysterious Missouri team in recent memory.
Missouri lost nearly 80 percent of both its scoring and its minutes played from last season’s NCAA Tournament team, either to the transfer portal or the professional ranks. Only three players on this year’s roster have played a game in a Tiger uniform, and one of them, sophomore Jordan Wilmore, only played 21 minutes last season. Martin sought to replace the departed production by adding four transfers and five true freshmen. Add in the fact that the team hasn’t played any preseason exhibition games that have been open to the public, and anyone who claims to know what to expect from Missouri this season is likely lying.
So, here are five big questions about this year’s Tiger team that we should start to see answered as soon as Tuesday night.
1. How does the playing time shake out?
The biggest mystery is simply who sees the floor for Missouri, and how much? Martin has indicated in recent weeks that he has a pretty clear idea of which five players should start. He also expects to go at least eight deep, possibly utilizing nine or 10 players, depending on the matchup.
Tuesday should give fans an indication of what role each player will be called on to fill. We know returners Javon Pickett and Kobe Brown will play regular minutes, but who else will join them? How interchangeable are Missouri’s various backcourt players, and who does Martin trust to run the point? How heavily will Wilmore, who Martin has continuously praised for his physical transformation during the offseason, be used?
2. Does Martin really embrace "positionless basketball?"
During each of the past three offseasons, Martin has talked about modernizing his lineup: putting multiple players on the court at all times who can handle the ball and play on the perimeter. While it’s worth noting that he has adapted his approach a bit each year (most notably upping the pace last season, when Missouri jumped from No. 267 in tempo to 163rd), the reality is the past two Tiger teams have generally featured clearly-defined ball-handlers and post players.
But with Jeremiah Tilmon, Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson all gone from the roster, Martin’s personnel moves during the offseason suggest we could finally see a shift to more “positionless” lineups. The Tigers’ personnel would appear to lend itself to putting five players on the perimeter on the offensive end of the floor and switching one through five on defense. Martin has openly talked about Brown as a player who could play point guard and center within the same game. Fellow forwards Trevon Brazile, Ronnie DeGray and Yaya Keita might not have quite that much offensive versatility, but they profile as the type of big men that can bang in the post while also switching onto smaller defenders or stepping out and knocking down a three-pointer. Boogie Coleman, Anton Brookshire and Amari Davis all appear to have the ability to bring the ball up the floor. That said, Martin could just as easily decide to use exclusively Coleman at point guard and play the 7-foot-3 Wilmore in a Tilmon-type role.
3. Can anyone shoot?
If Missouri does indeed adopt a more positionless approach, the offense is going to need players who can stretch the defense with their shooting ability. It’s fair to wonder whether the Tigers have those guys.
Three-point shooting has been the primary offensive weakness for Missouri each of the past two seasons. The Tigers ranked No. 326 out of 353 Division I teams in three-point percentage in 2019-20 and No. 230 last season. Most of the players from those two teams have since been replaced, but not many of the newcomers have demonstrated the ability to consistently knock down shots from beyond the arc.
Brown shot 25.0 percent from deep last season. Kansas State transfer Dajuan Gordon converted just 21.7 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc last season, while Davis shot 28.0 percent. Pickett shot a career-best 36.0 percent from deep last season, but on just one three-point attempt per game. The one player whose track record suggests he can bring consistent three-point shooting to the roster is Coleman. The Ball State transfer shot 42.5 percent on 5.6 three-point attempts per game a year ago.
Martin, at least, appears optimistic that this year's team will shoot the ball better than the past two. He said last week that, aside from Wilmore, every player has the "green light" from three-point range.
4. Is there a go-to guy?
This is a question that might not be answered Tuesday, as KenPom.com projects Missouri to beat Central Michigan by 18 points. But there will come times this season when the Tigers simply need someone to put the offense on his shoulders during a close game and get a bucket. Time will tell whether or not that player is on the roster, and if so, who emerges into the role. Coleman and Davis have both shown an ability to score in the past, but playing in the SEC night in and night out will require an adjustment. Brown has been a solid secondary or tertiary offensive option during his first two years, but it’s fair to wonder whether he can take on more scoring responsibility while receiving increased defensive attention, at least until he proves otherwise.
5. How steep is the learning curve?
A season ago, Missouri benefited by being one of the most experienced teams in the country. Early in the season, as other teams suffered through growing pains, the Tigers looked like a well-oiled machine, starting the season 6-0 with wins over Oregon and Illinois. While the offseason leading up to last year was unique because of the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s fair to expect Missouri to experience some growing pains after remaking its roster. Two-thirds of the roster either spent last season playing for a mid-major college or in high school, and they won’t just have to adjust to the increased competition that Missouri’s challenging slate will provide, but learn to play with one another.
The good news for the Tigers is that the schedule allows for a few games to get acclimated before the tougher tests begin. After Central Michigan, Missouri will face UMKC and Northern Illinois. The downside is that if the team somehow slips up early in the season while it tries to find chemistry, it will be difficult to overcome. From Dec. 11 on, Missouri only plays high-major opponents. It finishes non-conference play with the gauntlet of Kansas, Utah and Illinois, then starts SEC competition against Kentucky.
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