Five up, Five down: Mizzou's chances in 2018
One of my favorite things every April back when Joe Posnanski was a columnist at the Kansas City Star was his annual column about why the Royals could win the AL Central and make the playoffs. It was complete fantasy most of the time, but I'm sure Joe knew that and it was still fun to have some hope, even if it was a complete facade.
So in that vein, I give you five reasons Missouri could win the SEC East this year. But I'm going to approach it with a little more balance. Following that, I'll give you five reasons the Tigers could fall short of expectations.
FIVE REASONS THE TIGERS COULD SURPRISE
1. Drew Lock. According to virtually everyone, Lock is one of the five best quarterbacks in the country going into this season. He's in the top two (or three for those who put a lot of stock in Tua Tagovailoa's one very impressive half of football) in the SEC. It's not a tough argument to make that a college football quarterback is the most impactful single player in sports. Every year we see good quarterbacks take average teams to greater heights. Is Lock that guy? The one major criticism of him is that in three years, he hasn't elevated the team around him enough. If he can do it this year, things could be fun for Mizzou fans.
2. The backfield. More than perhaps any other position (and certainly more than any offensive position) the SEC over the years has been known for great running backs. You don't win in this league if you can't run the ball. The Tigers might not have the best 1-2 punch in the league, but they should be in the discussion. Mizzou brings back Damarea Crockett, who ran for 1,000 yards as a true freshman two years ago. He'll split carries with Larry Rountree III, who ran for 703 yards and six touchdowns in part-time duty as a true freshman last season. Lock will get all the attention on offense, but the running game will be every bit as important. And those two facets should help each other. On defense, you can't take away everything. Will teams load up to stop the run and take their chances with Lock? Or will they devote more players to coverage, limiting Lock's options, but creating space for Crockett and Rountree?
3. A scheme that will help the defense. Missouri's offense put up great numbers last year. The name of the game is to score and Missouri did a lot of it. They also did it incredibly quickly. Over the last two seasons, Mizzou's offense held the ball for just 24:40 per game. They were dead last in time of possession two years ago and next to last in 2017 (thanks San Jose State). The Tigers had a lot of drives where they scored very quickly...and a lot where they gave the ball back very quickly without scoring. The defense wasn't great...but it was better than the numbers indicated. Missouri's defense was on the field all the time. Plus, the scheme was creating extra possessions every game. All it takes is a couple of empty possessions offensively and you're playing catch-up all game. Mizzou probably won't put up the numbers it did under Josh Heupel with Derek Dooley in charged...but it might be more efficient. And the defense will be better.
4. The defensive tackles. Missouri's staff feels it has as good a crew at this position as anyone in the conference. Terry Beckner Jr. is the star, but hopes are sky-high for Jordan Elliott and people are saying Walter Palmore is in better shape than he's ever been. Akial Byers and Rashad Brandon showed some flashes next year and Antar Thompson will be playing in the SEC as a 23-year-old grown man. We've gone six deep and haven't even mentioned Markell Utsey, who saw the field as a true freshman two years ago. The depth should keep everyone fresh and allow Ryan Walters and Brick Haley to come up with some creative looks up front.
5. The kicking game. It's going to be the difference in at least one game this year. If you don't believe me, go back and watch the Texas Bowl again. After a rough first year, Tucker McCann was sneakily reliable in 2017, making 15-of-17 field goals and 51-of-53 extra points. Corey Fatony was a pre-season all-SEC selection at punter after averaging a career-best 44.31 yards per punt last year. Missouri enters the season with no questions in the kicking game, which is a big relief for any coach.
FIVE REASONS THE TIGERS COULD DISAPPOINT
1. What if something happens to Lock? You almost don't even want to say it. But if Drew Lock has to miss any meaningful time, Missouri is completely unproven behind him. Micah Wilson has thrown ten collegiate passes. The other three scholarship quarterbacks (Jack Lowary, Taylor Powell and Lindsey Scott Jr.) have thrown none. If Lock goes down, all expectations have to be revised.
2. Georgia. Here's a mind-numbing stat I saw last week: The worst average star rating Kirby Smart has had in three recruiting classes is 3.69. The best Mark Richt had in 15 years was 3.67. So UGA went to the national title game (and should have won it) when less than half the roster was Smart's. Now he's got another class in and they're recruiting better than they ever did. Alabama is still the class of the SEC, but the talent gap between the Tide and the rest of the West might be smaller than the gap between Georgia and the rest of the East.
3. The schedule. We know all too well about Missouri's struggles out of the gate the last two seasons. Well, the slate is once again front-loaded. After home games against UT-Martin and Wyoming, which have to be wins if this season is going to get where anyone at Mizzou wants it to, the Tigers go to Purdue, come home for Georgia and then go to South Carolina and Alabama. Missouri could be better than it was last year and sit 2-4 halfway through the season. We're going to know if Missouri has any chance to win the division after week five. If they lost to Georgia and South Carolina, they have no shot to make it to Atlanta. If they're sitting 2-4 and coming off a whipping in Tuscaloosa, can Odom circle the wagons and lead a second half revival again? Maybe...but it's not the route you'd prefer to go if you had a choice. Plus, the Tigers have to play Tennessee and Florida on the road this year. They got both at home in the second half of 2017.
4. The pass defense. Missouri's secondary is almost completely unproven. Plus, the pass rush is a question mark as the Tigers don't have much proven depth at defensive end. If other teams can complete passes at will against the Tigers, it's going to force Lock and the offense to be nearly perfect to get to eight wins.
5. Ball security. Missouri was 111th in the country and dead last in the SEC in turnover margin last season. Of the 19 teams tied or ranked below the Tigers, only three (Marshall, North Texas, Middle Tennessee) had winning records, and only North Texas won more than eight games. The Tigers lost 11 fumbles (95th in the country) and gained only five (109th). Some of that can be attributed to luck, but not all of it. Missouri has to get better at taking care of the ball. Nothing swings the momentum of a game like a turnover (see the game against South Carolina last year) and Mizzou had far too many of them a year ago. If that doesn't get fixed, it will submarine the season.