Four Down Territory
Welcome to the offseason version of Four Down Territory.
It’s going to be a little different than it was in-season. I'll post one weekly during the season, which for me is from SEC Media Days through Missouri's final game.
During the offseason, I’ll post every other week.
1. Could Mizzou miss the College Football Playoff if it goes 10-2 with losses to Alabama and Oklahoma? Would you prefer a win over Alabama or Oklahoma to go 11-1?
Someone brought up the question to me the other day and I hadn’t put as much thought into it until they asked and it got me thinking.
But before we get into it, here's Missouri’s 2024 schedule:
Week 1, Aug. 31: vs. Murray State
Week 2, Sept. 7: vs. Buffalo
Week 3, Sept. 14: vs. Boston College
Week 4, Sept. 21: vs. Vanderbilt
Week 5, Sept. 28: OPEN
Week 6, Oct. 5: at Texas A&M
Week 7, Oct. 12: at UMass
Week 8, Oct. 19: vs. Auburn
Week 9, Oct. 26: at Alabama
Week 10, Nov. 2: OPEN
Week 11, Nov. 9: vs. Oklahoma
Week 12, Nov. 16: at South Carolina
Week 13, Nov. 23: at Mississippi State
Week 14, Nov. 30: vs. Arkansas
In 2025, the Tigers will play the same SEC schedule as they do this year with the change being if they played a team at home this year, they’ll go on the road for that game next year and vice versa.
So, Missouri’s window to become and stay a powerhouse lies in this two-year window.
It went 11-2 last year and now has a favorable schedule for two seasons that avoids LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas. So, I'm taking the questions and extending them out to 2025 as well.
There are no easy schedules in the Southeastern Conference, and with the portal and all of the changes in college football, anyone can turn into a contender. (It doesn’t mean that any and everyone will but they can.)
However, this schedule for the next two years will likely mean Mizzou may need to go 11-1 to make the College Football Playoffs.
So, at first, when the schedule dropped in late 2023 I just thought Mizzou should easily go 10-2, and then boom, they’re in the 12-team playoff. But as we all know, rankings are subjective. It’s about more than records. It's about who you beat and how you beat them. Let's just focus on the who you beat part.
Before I proceed, I believe a healthy Mizzou team should go 11-1 but I say 10-2 just to be safe.
One of those wins has to come against Oklahoma or Alabama because the Tigers’ strength of schedule as currently constructed may not get them into the CFP even at 10-2.
Again, things can change and Mississippi State could be 12-0 by the time they play Mizzou. But let's say that's not the case and that the real tests come in Weeks 9 and 11.
In my opinion, the Alabama game is the bigger game. Sure, the Crimson Tide aren’t Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. So, the aura has changed a bit. But replacing him with Kalen DeBoer is as good as it gets. He just led Washington to the national championship and is 104-12 in his career and 25-3 in his last two seasons.
If Alabama is what it is every year, then defeating them would do more for Mizzou’s CFP hopes than defeating Oklahoma at home, assuming the Sooners are who they were last year, which is good, not great.
I believe most viewers think Alabama will be fine, and likely a top-10 team. I don’t know if everyone feels that way about Oklahoma. Like most teams, they’re usually as good as their quarterback.
The reigniting of the Tiger-Sooner Peace Pipe rivalry and the X (formerly Twitter) wars that the fan bases have against each other will make for probably the most exciting home game of the season for Mizzou.
Regardless, the Tigers may need to go 11-1 with a win over one of those teams to solidify a CFP spot.
But let’s say Alabama and Oklahoma are both top-10 teams when they face Mizzou.
Would you rather Mizzou win on the road at Alabama before a bye week and lose to Oklahoma at home? Or Missouri lose to Alabama before a bye week and a win versus the Sooners?
Regardless, the Tigers may need to go 11-1 with a win over one of those teams to solidify a CFP spot. But for you as a fan, if the team needs to win one of those games which one are you taking and why?
2. I've learned from watching the 2024 men's NCAA tournament that I was more interested in last year’s tournament.
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