Juco to Mizzou? Junior college recruiting a risky proposition
Missouri fans almost certainly hadn’t heard of Mohamed Diarra before he committed to the Tigers on March 25. But there’s a good chance the addition of Diarra marked the start of a trend for the Tiger hoops program — and not just because he was the first commitment of the Dennis Gates era.
Originally from Paris, France, the 6-foot-10 big man has spent the past two seasons at Garden City Community College. Mining the junior college ranks for talent has long been a staple for Gates. After inheriting a depleted roster in the summer of 2019, he stocked it largely with junior college products, adding nine such players to the roster across three seasons. Florida State also signed nine players from the junior college ranks during his eight years as a full-time assistant there.
And with Missouri still needing to fill four scholarships prior to the start of next season, there’s a good chance Gates isn’t done adding junior college players. Missouri hosted John A. Logan Community College point guard Sean East for a recruiting visit two weeks ago, and there’s even been buzz that Logan coach Kyle Smithpeters is a candidate to join Gates’ staff as an assistant.
Gates managed to unearth some solid contributors from junior college during his tenure at Cleveland State. The Vikings’ three top scorers a season ago, D’Moi Hodges, Torrey Patton and Tre Gomillion, all started their careers in junior college. And there are certainly plenty of examples of junior college players finding success even at the high-major level. Reigning ACC player of the year Alondes Williams spent his first two years at Triton College.
Missouri fans don’t have to think back too far to remember a junior college success story. Jordan Geist came to Missouri by way of Ranger College. By his final season, Geist led the Tigers with 14.8 points per game. But since then, Missouri has swung and missed on the likes of Axel Okong, K.J. Santos and Ed Chang out of the junior college ranks.
A deep dive into junior college recruiting shows that’s the norm across the country. Every year, someone uncovers a gem from the junior college ranks. But for every Williams or Chris Duarte, the Pac-12 player of the year in 2020-21, there are multiple players who don’t pan out.
We combed through the junior college prospect rankings at jucorecruiting.com, taking a look at how every junior college prospect who signed with a high-major school (the football Power Five plus the Big East) from 2017-2020 fared at the next level. That produced a list of 64 junior college products. (Note: there were likely other junior college players who signed with high-major schools, but we only included those listed in the jucorecruiting top 100.)
Of those 64, only 20 averaged seven or more points per game during any season for his next school — a little better than 30 percent. Twelve would go on to average double-figures. Plus, of those 20 players, 10 wound up transferring at least one time after rising to the Division I ranks.
That was a theme among all junior college products, regardless of production — although it could also simply be a sign of the times in college basketball. Thirty-eight of the 64 players we looked at transferred at least one time following their jump out of junior college or are currently in the portal.
Among the success stories, most followed a career arc similar to Geist. It took a season or two to adjust to the Division I level. Geist averaged 7.2 points per game across his first two seasons at Missouri before breaking out as a senior. Of the 64 players surveyed above, only five averaged double figures in their first season out of junior college: Duarte, Teddy Allen and Cam Mack of Nebraska (both of whom then transferred down a level), Alonzo Verge of Arizona State and Jared Wilson-Frame of Pittsburgh.
Ultimately, recent history suggests that high-major coaches can find production from the junior college ranks. But it takes keen evaluation — the type longtime Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton says he’s seen from Gates — to pick the right players. And even the right players shouldn’t be expected to be difference-makers right away.
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