Last Looks: Mizzou vs Middle Tennessee

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KICKOFF: 3:00 p.m. Central

SITE: Memorial Stadium (71,168)

TV: SEC Network (Dave Neal, Matt Stinchcomb, Olivia Harlan)

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Missouri leads 1-0 (Missouri won 41-40 in OT in 2003)

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ZERO TRUST: INSIDE MIZZOU'S MOVE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

When Missouri runs the ball: The Tigers looked to have discovered a bit of a running game last week with Damarea Crockett leading the way and Ish Witter helping out. The duo combined for 267 rushing yards on 29 carries. On the surface, the Blue Raiders only give up 150 yards a game on the ground, which isn't bad. But Vandy ran for 231. If Missouri will have some patience, the ground game could get rolling. EDGE: MIZZOU

When Missouri throws the ball: The Blue Raiders haven't given up all that many passing yards, but again the schedule is suspect. Middle Tennessee has just four interceptions, while giving up seven touchdown throws. Missouri, well, who knows? When they've played good defenses, the passing game has been mostly awful. When they've played less than good defenses, the aerial attack has thrived. It would seem Mizzou will have some chances through the air, but given the last two weeks, we're going to make the Tigers prove it. EDGE: EVEN

When Middle Tennessee runs the ball: I'Tavius Mathers might be the best back in the country most people don't know. He's averaging 6.36 yards a carry, 120 yards per game and has scored ten touchdowns. Missouri's run defense was better last week...but it's hard not to be better than giving up 418 yards per game on the ground. Will the Tigers let Mathers get his and try to keep the passing game from beating them? Or do they load up to stop Mathers and put the game on the secondary? EDGE: EVEN

When Middle Tennessee throws the ball: Brent Stockstill is going to throw it. A lot. He has the third most passing attempts in the country. He's completing 65%, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt and has 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions. Richie James is the lead dog with 57 catches for 776 yards. Those numbers are just about double anyone else on the team. Five different Blue Raiders, including Mathers, have at least 200 yards receiving. Aarion Penton and John Gibson have played well this season. Missouri likely won't have a chance to get a lot of pressure as Stockstill generally gets rid of the ball relatively quickly. EDGE: MIDDLE TENNESSEE

Special Teams: Missouri's punting has been very good, but the rest of the special teams hasn't had much impact. The Tigers' return games have been stagnant and Tucker McCann has been a non-factor with the last two losses being blowouts. The Blue Raiders have missed a couple extra points and a couple field goals of their own. The return games are middle of the road. EDGE: EVEN

Intangibles: Middle Tennessee comes in with little to lose. The Blue Raiders are less than a touchdown underdog, but the general impression will be that they should have no chance on the road against an SEC team. Where is Missouri's confidence after the last two weeks? It's Homecoming, but with attendance through the first few home games, that may not provide a big boost. Still, Missouri's at home and favored. EDGE: EVEN

Coaching: Rick Stockstill is in his 11th season and has won a little more than half his games. Barry Odom is coaching in his seventh game. Until Odom proves otherwise, he's going to be at a deficit in this category. EDGE: MIDDLE TENNESSEE

1. GET A FIRST DOWN. Missouri keeps talking about how it needs to get the first first down for the hurry-up offense to work. Here's what we know: When you get no first downs, it doesn't work. The Tigers have to move the ball and move it early in the game to get not only some rhythm, but some confidence on offense.

2. GET OFF THE FIELD. Middle Tennessee is converting 53% of its third downs. Missouri is allowing opponents to convert nearly 42% of third downs. The team that wins this matchup could have a big leg up.

3. CONTROL THE CLOCK? The Blue Raiders average 31:13 in possession time. Missouri averages 24:13, which is 124th in FBS (out of 128 teams). Middle Tennessee throws the ball a lot, but they do it with a controlled passing game. Their goal is to keep the Tiger offense on the sidelines and wear down the defense--a formula that's worked for Mizzou opponents each of the last two weeks to be sure.

Missouri's season might be teetering, but it is by no means off the tracks yet. That changes if the Tigers lose this game. Saturday starts a run of four straight games Missouri almost has to win. Middle Tennessee will move the ball, but Missouri's been decent in the red zone and taking the ball away on defense and will do so again. The Tiger offense will look more like it did against Georgia and less like it has against LSU and Florida. Mizzou scores enough to win with relative ease, 37-20.

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

West Virginia 27, Mizzou 17

Mizzou 48, Eastern Michigan 10

Georgia 23, Mizzou 21

Mizzou 54, Delaware State 7

LSU 22, Mizzou 14

Florida 24, Mizzou 7