THE VITALS
KICKOFF: 2:30 p.m. Central
SITE: Neyland Stadium (102,455)
TV: CBS (Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Allie LaForce)
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Mizzou leads 3-1 (Tennessee won 19-8 in 2015)
RELATED LINKS
Turner picks the Tigers | Following the Future | Live with Barry Odom
Media Day Video | Video Chat Replay | Monday Mizzou Notebook | This Week's Mailbag
Video: Tiger Coordinators | Podcast with Volquest.com | Enter the Chamber
THE MATCHUPS
When Mizzou runs the ball: Damarea Crockett is having a heck of a freshman season with 1,000 yards in sight. Ish Witter hasn't done badly himself, pacing for nearly 700 yards on the season. And now the Tigers get the 100th ranked run defense in the country. The Vols have given up five yards per attempt and 19 touchdowns on the ground this season. EDGE: MIZZOU
When Mizzou throws the ball: Drew Lock is coming off perhaps his best game as a Tiger and good J'Mon Moore showed up last week. The Vols have been better against the pass than the run, giving up 200 yards a game even and intercepting eight passes against 13 touchdowns. They're also getting healthy with the return of Cam Sutton in the secondary. Missouri has shown the ability to move the ball through the air, but the inability to avoid mistakes. EDGE: EVEN
When Tennessee runs the ball: Without Jalen Hurd, the Vols' rushing attack may have actually gotten better. Josh Dobbs is one of the best running quarterbacks in the country and Alvin Kamara is a home run threat every time he touches the football. Sophomore John Kelly is averaging seven yards a carry and the Vols have run for 20 touchdowns. EDGE: TENNESSEE
When Tennessee throws the ball: Dobbs leads the league in interceptions, but he has also thrown for 2100 yards and 21 touchdowns. Josh Malone leads the receiving corps, but the Vols have six players who are averaging better than ten yards per catch with more than ten receptions this season. If Missouri can put pressure on Dobbs and get him to the ground, this could get interesting, but we've got to see the Tigers do that to believe the defensive turnaround continues. The Tiger secondary has been up and down all year. EDGE: TENNESSEE
SPECIAL TEAMS: Aaron Medley has been solid if not spectacular kicking the ball. The Tigers would kill for solid right now. Mizzou doesn't know if it can make an extra point or even attempt a field goal. Both punters are very good, but the real difference maker here is Evan Berry, who is averaging nearly 33 yards per kickoff return and is a threat to score anytime the opposition is foolish enough to kick to him. EDGE: TENNESSEE
INTANGIBLES: Missouri got a win and that's good, but the Tigers are still struggling and playing for nothing. The Vols could be playing for a spot in Atlanta. But who does that favor? Missouri is a 16-point underdog and should play with no pressure. If Tennessee loses one of these last two games to lose out on a spot in the SEC Championship Game, it's a big blow to what could still be a very solid season. EDGE: PUSH
COACHING: Barry Odom won an SEC game last week. And that's good. We don't view Butch Jones as one of America's better tacticians. But Odom is 3-7. He's got a lot to prove. EDGE: TENNESSEE
THE KEYS
1. Run until they stop it. Tennessee can put up points. Missouri's best defense is keeping the Vols' offense on the sideline. Hand the ball to Crockett and Witter. Let the quarterback run it. Use a jet sweep or two. The Vols aren't great stopping the run. Make them prove they can do it before you start flinging the football all over Knoxville.
2. Play a clean game. The Tigers made plenty of mistakes even in a win last week. But Vandy made more. Mizzou managed to overcome quite a few miscues against the Commodores. The talent deficit is probably too large for that to be the case against Tennessee. Missouri needs to minimize or eliminate the penalties, turnovers and momentum-swinging mistakes.
3. Keep Dobbs in the pocket. Even if it comes at the expense of some sacks, don't let him run. When Dobbs uses his legs, Tennessee's offense goes from good to great. In the season opener, he didn't run much and Appalachian State held Tennessee to 20. The only other team to do that all year long is Alabama. Containment is more important than pressure. If you make him move around, don't let him jump outside. Make Dobbs sit back and prove he can beat you with his arm. If you do that, history says you're going to have two or three chances at an interception.
THE PREDICTION
This game isn't going to be won in the teens. Missouri's offense is going to have to show up to give the Tigers a real shot. While an upset isn't out of the question, the 16-point line is fair. Missouri simply hasn't shown it can stay out of its own way long enough to score with a team like Tennessee. We're taking the Tigers to cover, but the Volunteers to win 34-22 (Missouri scores three touchdowns and converts on two of three two-point conversions).
PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS
West Virginia 27, Mizzou 17
Mizzou 48, Eastern Michigan 10
Georgia 23, Mizzou 21
Mizzou 54, Delaware State 7
LSU 22, Mizzou 14
Florida 24, Mizzou 7
Mizzou 37, Middle Tennessee 20
Kentucky 42, Mizzou 35
South Carolina 20, Mizzou 10
Vanderbilt 9, Mizzou 8
