Here’s a scouting report, some notes and what to watch during the No. 22 Mizzou (15-4, 4-2) matchup with No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels (15-4, 4-2) at 5 p.m. (SEC Network).
As a note, Kenny is going to do game coverage tonight. I’m indisposed. So shout out and thank you to Kenny.
Scouting Report
Ole Miss enters today’s matchup following consecutive losses, first in overtime to Mississippi State, then on a last-second 3 against Texas A&M.
The Rebels played a relatively-easy non-conference schedule, losing to then-No. 12 Purdue 80-78, and beating Louisville (86-63) before losing to Memphis (87-70).
Ole Miss opened SEC play with wins against Georgia, Arkansas, LSU and Alabama before dropping the past two games.
The Rebels average 77.9 points per game and allow 65.5, those numbers sit at 71.67 points scored and 65.5 allowed in SEC play.
Ole Miss has allowed more than 66 points to only Mississippi State in conference play, while holding Georgia to fewer than 60.
The Rebels shoot 44.5 percent from the field, 35.2 percent from 3 and 73 percent from the free-throw line while allowing opponents to shoot 40.4/29.3/69.5.
They have a -2.6 rebounding margin as they average 34.6 and allow 37.2, but almost double-up opponents on average in points off turnover at 18.1-9.6.
Senior guard Sean Pedulla (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) leads the Rebels with 14.3 points, 3.53 assists and 2.37 steals per game, while senior guard Jaylen Murray (5-11, 165) averages 11.8 points and a team-high 4.05 assists per contest.
Senior guard Matthew Murrell (6-4, 205) adds 11.3 points per game, while senior forward Jaemyn Brakefield (6-8, 225) scores 10.2 points and brings down 5.2 rebounds per game off the bench.
Junior forward Malik Dia (6-9, 250) averages 9.6 points and a team-high 6.1 rebounds per game.
Ole Miss leads the all-time series 17-8 and has won the past two matchups, beating Missouri 84-78 in Columbia last season and 79-76 in Oxford, Mississippi.
Before that, the Tigers won five consecutive matchups in 2022 and 2023.
Mizzou notes: The Tigers' 4-2 SEC record matches their best start since joining the conference ... Mizzou is 11-0 when making at least eight 3-pointers ... Caleb Grill is averaging 14.5 points per game in wins this season, but just 3.3 points in losses ... Mizzou is second in the country at 20.2 made free throws per game ...The Tigers are 12-0 this season when scoring 80 points and 13-1 when holding opponents to fewer than 80 points.
Matchups
Points-off turnovers
Both of these teams make turnovers a major part of their defensive strategy.
Missouri averages 15.2 turnovers forced per game and Ole Miss averages 16.2.
If either team is ability to keep their own total close to single digits, that is the squad that will have the best chance to win.
Or if both defenses are able to get near those averages, it will come down to which team is more able to take advantage with points off turnovers.
Mizzou averages 19.2 points off turnovers and allows opponents to score 11.6, while Ole Miss sits at 18.1 points off turnovers and 9.6 points allowed off turnovers.
Rebounding
The Tigers reverted to what looked more like the 2023-24 team’s ability to rebound than what fans had gotten used to through the start of conference play.
When going up against a team that, even including non-conference play, averages a rebounding deficit, it will be key for Missouri to not allow the second-chance points that doomed the Tigers against Texas on Tuesday.
If Missouri is able to get back to the rebounding that won it the overall battle in the first four games of conference play and nearly matched board-for-board with Florida, then the Tigers should be well-set for a win.
What I'm looking for
It feels like a cop-out to say making shots. But the Tigers can't shoot the way they did against Texas and expect to beat many teams.
Ole Miss plays fantastic defense, so it won’t be easy to get open looks, but the shots have to fall earlier in the game than they did against the Longhorns.
If the Tigers are able to get a couple of turnovers and easy looks early, or get to the free-throw line in the first handful of minutes, then those opportunities to see the ball go through early should help through the rest of the game.
Stay up to date on all the Mizzou news with your premium subscription.
Talk about this story in the story thread and discuss so much more in The Tiger Walk.
Make sure you're caught up on all the Tiger news and headlines.
