Each Saturday morning, we start game day by breaking down the matchups inside the game and making a prediction. Here is the breakdown of the Tigers against Georgia.
INSIDE THE MATCHUPS
WHEN MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL: For the second week in a row, the Tigers get a defense that is holding opponents under 100 yards a game and three yards per carry. Mizzou ran it pretty well against Kentucky last week, led by Ish Witter's 139 yards. Damarea Crockett had solid numbers as well, but also a critical fumble. Georgia's defense is better than Kentucky's. And it's done it against better teams. This might be the matchup that is closest to even, but...
EDGE: GEORGIA
WHEN MISSOURI THROWS THE BALL: Drew Lock leads the country in completions over 50 yards and J'Mon Moore leads in receptions of more than 50. If there's one place Missouri needs to find success, it's with the deep ball. The Tigers aren't likely to sustain a lot of 10-play, 75-yard drives against the Bulldogs. They're going to need to hit some home runs. Easier said than done. Georgia is holding opposing quarterbacks to a sub-100 rating and has more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed. Bulldog opponents are averaging only 158 yards per game. And Missouri's passing game has been inconsistent, even if Emanuel Hall did look like a significant improvement to the starting lineup.
EDGE: GEORGIA
WHEN GEORGIA RUNS THE BALL: True freshman D'Andre Swift (264 yards, 7.33 per carry) might start for about half the teams in the SEC. He's the third-stringer at Georgia. Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing and Sony Michel is probably the best second-stringer in the SEC. Missouri's run defense hasn't been terrible, but it hasn't faced a team with anywhere near this kind of a ground game.
EDGE: GEORGIA
WHEN GEORGIA THROWS THE BALL: The Bulldogs haven't done a ton of it because they haven't had to. They're averaging just more than 21 attempts per game and less than 150 yards. But Missouri's pass defense....oh, man. The Tigers don't get much pressure, they don't cover particularly well and they don't intercept passes or knock them down very often. Other than that...
EDGE: GEORGIA
SPECIAL TEAMS: Missouri is back to the point where you really don't feel comfortable kicking a field goal. And that changes pretty much everything about the way Josh Heupel and Barry Odom have to approach a game. The punting game is good and we'll probably see quite a bit of it on Saturday night. UGA has the better return game and coverage units.
EDGE: GEORGIA
COACHING: Barry Odom and Kirby Smart took over at the same time. Smart is 14-5. Odom is 5-12.
EDGE: GEORGIA
THE BOTTOM LINE: The simple fact is if Georgia plays well, Missouri has no shot. The Bulldogs are a legitimate top ten team and look like the most significant challenger to Alabama the East division has had in quite some time. To have a chance, Missouri has to hang on to the football, hit quite a few deep passes and hope Georgia is a little bit off. The Tigers looked better last week, but this isn't Kentucky.
PLAYER OF THE GAME: J'Mon Moore. We think Moore will get free deep a couple of times and put up close to 100 yards, but it won't be nearly enough for the Tigers.
THE PICK: Georgia 37, Missouri 14
