Each Saturday morning, we start game day by breaking down the matchups inside the game, offering up three keys and making a prediction. Â Here is the breakdown of the Tigers against Missouri State.
                       INSIDE THE MATCHUPS
WHEN MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL: The Tigers have a returning 1,000 yard rusher in Damarea Crockett who should see some early carries and then hustle off to the sideline. Dependable backup Ish Witter put up more than 700 yards of his own last season. Freshman Larry Rountree III has been the buzz of fall camp and Nate Strong and Dawson Downing should split the fourth quarter if the Tigers have a comfortable cushion (which they'd better).
EDGE: MIZZOU
*Note: All stats are from 2016. Going forward we will use year-to-date 2017 stats.
WHEN MISSOURI THROWS THE BALL: Drew Lock has one of the better arms in the country and enters his third year as a starter. J'Mon Moore, Johnathon Johnson and Dimetrios Mason are all returning starters. Jason Reese leads a tight end group that is expected to add another dimension to the passing game. We should get a look at Jack Lowary or Micah Wilson behind Lock and potentially both. The Tigers hit a lot of home runs through the air last year. This year, they need to hit more singles and doubles.
EDGE: MIZZOU
WHEN MISSOURI STATE RUNS THE BALL: The Bears have their top four rushers back from a year ago, but none had more than 459 yards in 2016. Jason Randall and Calan Crowder were the top two ballcarriers a season ago, but the Missouri State ground game didn't really get going. The Tigers struggled against the run a year ago, but have brought in a bevy of new defensive tackles. Rashad Brandon and Walter Palmore should factor in and Markell Utsey and Terry Beckner Jr. are slated to be the starters coming off season-shortening knee injuries last year.
EDGE: MIZZOU
WHEN MISSOURI STATE THROWS THE BALL: The Bears bring in sophomore Peyton Huslig, who won a junior college national title last season at Garden City CC in Kansas. He has the luxury of last year's top three receivers coming back in Malik Earl, Deion Holliman and tight end Erik Furmanek. Missouri has a host of new players in the secondary. Of the slated starters, only safety Anthony Sherrils has extensive experience, though corner Logan Cheadle has been on the field plenty. Expect a number of players to get long looks on Saturday on the back end of the defense.
EDGE: MIZZOU
SPECIAL TEAMS: Corey Fatony is a big weapon at punter, but it's a bad sign if Mizzou has to use him much. Tucker McCann is a giant question mark entering his sophomore season. Barry Odom indicated Johnathon Johnson, Dimetrios Mason and Richaud Floyd could all be used in the return game. Missouri's kickoff return team was a glaring weakness a season ago.
The Bears averaged 13 yards per punt return and covered punts well a season ago. Like the Tigers, they were up and down in the kicking game, making 8-of-12 field goals. Sophomore Zach Drake from O'Hara High School in Kansas City handled both punting and kicking a year ago. Holliman is a very dangerous return man and could bust a big one.
EDGE: EVEN
COACHING: The knee-jerk reaction is that Barry Odom coaches in the SEC and Dave Steckel coaches in the Missouri Valley and that's the end of it. But that's too shallow. Odom's first year didn't go well. He's made quite a few changes. We probably won't be able to tell how many of them worked in week one. Steckel has steadily improved the Bears and talked a lot about getting the buy-in from his team. He doesn't have the horses to win this game, but that doesn't mean he's not doing a good job.
EDGE: EVEN
THE BOTTOM LINE: This shouldn't be a game. Even a mediocre SEC team has more talent at every position than a mediocre FCS team. Missouri has the edge in every spot here and it's not all that close. This is a payday for the Bears and a win for the Tigers. You can learn something from this game in only one way and it isn't good. If the starters are on the field to start the fourth quarter and the game is any semblance of doubt at halftime, something has gone drastically wrong.
PLAYER OF THE GAME: Each week, we'll do a pre-game projection of Mizzou's player of the game. This week, we're taking wide receiver Dimetrios Mason with a 100-yard day and two touchdowns.
THE PICK: Missouri 61, Missouri State 17
