Each Saturday morning, we start game day by breaking down the matchups inside the game and making a prediction. Here is the breakdown of the Tigers against Auburn.
INSIDE THE MATCHUPS
WHEN MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL: More than anything, this is why Missouri was unable to get anything going for the last game-and-a-half. Damarea Crockett has been banged up, Ish Witter has limitations and the coaches haven't trusted Larry Rountree III to take a meaningful handoff yet. If Crockett returns 100%, the Tigers have a shot to move the ball on the ground against the Tigers (hey, that's not gonna work). But the Auburn run defense is by far the best Missouri has seen and we have no idea what to expect out of Crockett.
EDGE: AUBURN
WHEN MISSOURI THROWS THE BALL: Keeping Drew Lock upright would be a good first goal here. Auburn has ten sacks in three games. Linebackers Tre Williams and Jeff Holland are as good a pair as Missouri will see this season. Mizzou hasn't had much imagination or production in the passing game the last couple of weeks. They're going to have to run patterns that will get the ball out of Lock's hands quickly. The tight ends and backs need to be involved from the get-go here. That said, Missouri's passing game has been dreadful two weeks in a row and facing Auburn is hardly a get-well recipe.
EDGE: AUBURN
WHEN AUBURN RUNS THE BALL: The Auburn running game hasn't been great, but should get a boost with the return of Kerryon Johnson. Kamryn Pettway was the only Tiger to get a carry against Mercer, toting it 34 times. But he's averaging less than four yards per attempt. Meanwhile Kam Martin is averaging 9.7 per carry but hasn't gotten to touch the ball in two weeks. Missouri started out pretty well against the run each of the last two weeks, but broke down and allowed big plays as things moved along.
EDGE: AUBURN
WHEN AUBURN THROWS THE BALL: Jarrett Stidham was hyped as potentially the best newcomer and the best quarterback in the SEC before the season. He has completed nearly 70% of his passes, but has just two touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging a little over 200 yards per game. A big part of that is facing Clemson, though. Will Hastings leads the team in receiving yards while Ryan Davis has more than twice as many catches as any other Tiger, but averages just 6.5 per reception. Only three Auburn receivers have more than four catches so far. But the Missouri pass defense has hardly been a point of pride so far. Stidham could have a big day. If he goes down, this gets interesting because backup Sean White was dismissed from the team earlier this week.
EDGE: AUBURN
SPECIAL TEAMS: Corey Fatony is a star. But through penalties or fumbles, Mizzou seems to manage to negate much of what he gives them. But, hey, Tucker McCann made his only kick last week. Auburn has already missed three field goals. Nothing really stands out about its special teams looking at the numbers. But the way Missouri has looked on special teams, nothing has to.
EDGE: AUBURN
COACHING: Auburn fans aren't exactly in love with Gus Malzahn this week. Same goes for Missouri fans and Barry Odom. But Malzahn has a track record. Odom, not so much.
EDGE: AUBURN
THE BOTTOM LINE: If Missouri plays its best game of the year and Auburn is a little bit off, the home-standing Tigers should have a shot in the fourth quarter. Auburn has been off at times this year, including last week. But we haven't seen Missouri play anything close to a complete game, much less its best. Can't predict it when we haven't seen it. Missouri's defense should be able to hang for a while, but it's tough to see Mizzou moving the ball on offense. It hasn't happened the last two weeks and Auburn is better than South Carolina or Purdue defensively. Eventually the 2:1 time of possession margin will wear down the Mizzou defense and it will crack.
PLAYER OF THE GAME: Corey Fatony. He was the MVP last week. Let's ride the hot hand.
THE PICK: Auburn 41, Mizzou 10
