Each week, we start game day by breaking down the matchups inside the game and making a prediction.  Here is the breakdown of the Tigers regular season finale against Arkansas.
                       INSIDE THE MATCHUPS
WHEN MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL: Missouri's ground game wasn't great against Vanderbilt, but it was still pretty good. The Tigers had 191 yards on the ground and averaged almost five per carry. Ish Witter had his second consecutive 100-yard game and Drew Lock was a threat with his legs. Those numbers are about what Arkansas is giving up on the season. The Razorbacks aren't as bad against the run as Missouri's last two opponents, but they aren't great either.
EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN MISSOURI THROWS THE BALL: Drew Lock had perhaps his least effective day in Mizzou's five game winning streak and still went for 235 yards and three touchdowns. It will be surprising if he doesn't own the Mizzou and SEC single-season records for touchdown passes by the end of the day. The Razorbacks aren't very good against the pass, allowing approximately 60% completions, more than 200 yards per game and three times as many touchdowns as interceptions. The major question here might be, can the Tigers catch the ball? The drops have resurfaced in the last two weeks.
EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN ARKANSAS RUNS THE BALL: The Razorbacks use three tailbacks. None has as many as 120 carries or 600 yards. All three average between 4.3 and 5.5 yards per carry. Missouri has been much better against the run of late, holding Vandy to 50 yards on 29 carries. The third down defense has vastly improved because Missouri has been much better against the run on first and second down.
EDGE: EVEN
WHEN ARKANSAS THROWS THE BALL: The Razorbacks have had to play two quarterbacks because Austin Allen spent much of the season injured. Allen and Cole Kelley have identical stats. The completion percentages (57.4) are exactly the same. So are the touchdowns (8) and the interceptions (4). The QB rating is within a point and a half and Allen has 76 more yards. Missouri's secondary has improved week by week and the Tigers are getting more pressure on the quarterback. This is still the biggest question mark on the team though.
EDGE: EVEN
SPECIAL TEAMS: Missouri has the edge in pretty much every facet here. And the Tigers have a reliable kicker now too.
EDGE: MISSOURI
COACHING: A year ago, this would have been far different. Six weeks ago this would have been far different. It's a generally accepted fact Bret Bielema is coaching his final game. We know Barry Odom's players will play hard for him. There's no way to know that about Bielema's.
EDGE: MISSOURI
THE BOTTOM LINE: Missouri is playing for something. Even after clinching bowl eligibility, the Tigers were immediately talking about focusing on the Razorbacks and improving their postseason position. Arkansas has all the look of a team that has mailed it in for the season. Even a win isn't going to get the Hogs to the postseason and Bielema is likely done in Fayetteville.
PLAYER OF THE GAME: Drew Lock lights it up with four touchdowns, taking sole possession of the single season school and conference records entering Missouri's bowl game.
THE PICK: Missouri 41, Arkansas 24
