Each Saturday morning, we start game day by breaking down the matchups inside the game and making a prediction.  Here is the breakdown of the Tigers against Tennessee.
                       INSIDE THE MATCHUPS
WHEN MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL: The Volunteers have one of the worst run defenses in America. The numbers are simply staggering. Missouri's offensive line struggled at the start of the year, but has been dominant for the last three weeks (and much of the last five). Even without Damarea Crockett, Mizzou is running the ball better than it has all season. Larry Rountree III and Ish Witter should have room to roam.
EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN MISSOURI THROWS THE BALL: Drew Lock and his receiving corps is playing as well as any in the league...if not the country. Tennessee has a top five pass defense nationally...but how much of it is because teams don't try to throw? The Vols face an average of 22.5 pass attemps per game. Missouri throws it an average of 33 times a game. We see the Tigers running it at first to make Tennessee commit more defenders to the line of scrimmage then throwing it over the top for big plays.
EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN TENNESSEE RUNS THE BALL: This is the one thing the Vols do at least reasonably well. John Kelly is a heck of a back, but Tennessee still averages well below four yards per carry. Tennessee has been held under 100 yards rushing in three of its last five games and has only topped 120 once in those five games. Missouri's run defense hasn't been stellar, but it has improved throughout the year. Cale Garrett and Terez Hall are making plays. Tennessee's offensive line is all beat up entering this one.
EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN TENNESSEE THROWS THE BALL: The Volunteers will start Jarrett Guarantano, who is completing 63% of his passes, but has thrown for just 575 yards this season. True freshman Will McBride burned his redshirt and could see action as well. Tennessee has been held under 200 yards passing in five of its last six games and under 100 in two of them. Missouri's pass defense woes have been well documented, but the Tigers have started to get more pressure on the quarterback of late and have cut down on the number of big plays in the passing game. Tennessee's leading receiver has 318 yards and three touchdowns. Missouri's still got a lot to prove, but this is probably the worst passing game they'll see all season...at least among Power Five teams.
EDGE: EVEN
SPECIAL TEAMS: Don't look now, but Missouri's pretty good here. Tucker McCann has made all but two kicks since week two. Corey Fatony has hardly seen the field in the last two weeks, but is still a weapon. Perhaps the biggest change is what Larry Rountree III has done for the kickoff return game. The Vols have good return games and a good punter in Trevor Daniel, but have missed six of their 17 field goal attempts this season.
EDGE: MISSOURI
COACHING: Barry Odom has probably saved his job over the last three weeks and brings a confident team to kickoff. Butch Jones hasn't and doesn't.
EDGE: MISSOURI
THE BOTTOM LINE: This is a virtual repeat of last week. The path to a bowl game is simple: Keep losing teams losing. Kick them while they're down. Missouri jumped out on Florida and the Gators gave in. If the Tigers can do it again, the Vols will follow Florida's script. Tennessee is even worse offensively than Florida. The only way they score enough points to win this game is if Missouri gives them points on defense or special teams. If the Tigers get into the mid-20's, the Vols just can't keep up.
PLAYER OF THE GAME: Drew Lock has been on a roll. He continues it in this game. He'll throw for 300 and three touchdowns and won't play the final ten minutes.
THE PICK: Missouri 41, Tennessee 13
