Each Saturday morning, we start game day by breaking down the matchups inside the game, offering up three keys and making a prediction. Â Here is the breakdown of the Tigers against South Carolina.
                       INSIDE THE MATCHUPS
WHEN MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL: Damarea Crockett has 299 yards in three halves of football plus two carries. He's still good. Missouri's offensive line is probably the best position unit on the team. Ish Witter averaged six yards a carry last week. The only curiosity here is with all we've heard about Larry Rountree III, will they trust him to carry the ball a little bit more? Purdue is decent against the run, but nothing special. They've given up 4.49 yards per carry, but you also have to remember they've played Lamar Jackson. The linebackers are probably the strength of the unit.
EDGE: MIZZOU
WHEN MISSOURI THROWS THE BALL: Purdue does not have an interception. Purdue has one sack. If this is not the week Drew Lock breaks through against a Power Five defense, it's concerning. It would be good to see more Emanuel Hall and more of the tight ends this week.
EDGE: MIZZOU
WHEN PURDUE RUNS THE BALL: Like its run defense, Purdue's running game is decent, but not great. They're averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 157 per game. Tario Fuller is the man to watch. He's averaging 7.1 yards per carry and is the only Boilermaker with ten carries. The offensive line has been shored up with some transfers and juco players. Missouri was much better against the run a week ago. South Carolina ran for 172, but took 40 carries to do it and 25 of them came on a jet sweep by Deebo Samuel. Both teams are decent here, but not great.
EDGE: EVEN
WHEN PURDUE THROWS THE BALL: The Boilermakers are likely to play two quarterbacks. David Blough has better stats, but had two key interceptions against Louisville. Elijah Sindelar has a better arm. Barry Odom said the offense doesn't change based on who plays quarterback. It's the same attack. Purdue's wide receivers are led by Jackson Anthrop, who has three touchdowns on 11 catches. But it's the tight ends that should scare Missouri. Cole Herdman is averaging 24 yards per catch and Brycen Hopkins is averaging 17. They're two of Purdue's top three receivers. Missouri has not dealt well with the tight end in the first two games. How the Tiger linebackers and safeties cover them could be the biggest matchup in the game.
EDGE: PURDUE
SPECIAL TEAMS: Missouri played perhaps the worst special teams game we've seen out of a team last week. You can argue if nothing changes other than eliminating special teams mistakes the Tigers beat South Carolina. Purdue has used two kickers and made three of four field goals. Nothing else about their special teams is exceptional. Forget exceptional. Missouri would take mediocre.
EDGE: PURDUE
COACHING: This is going to be the frustrating one for Tiger fans. Jeff Brohm has coached Purdue for two games and has a downtrodden program believing in itself. Barry Odom has been at Missouri for 14 games and the Tigers don't look much different than they did a year ago. Odom is under the microscope this weekend.
EDGE: PURDUE
THE BOTTOM LINE: Many are ready to write Missouri off. As we wrote on Thursday, we aren't among them...yet. But this is a must-win game. Period. No exceptions. Yes, Missouri needs to play well--because at some point, if they don't play well, they're just not a very good team--but even more than that, the Tigers have to have one more point than Purdue at the end of the day. This is not a game that can make Missouri's season. But it absolutely could break it. Meanwhile, Purdue comes in with little to lose. That's a scary recipe.
PLAYER OF THE GAME: Each week, we'll do a pre-game projection of Mizzou's player of the game. We think this is the week we see Drew Lock not just win a game, but be the reason he wins a game. Lock goes for 300 and three touchdowns.
THE PICK: Mizzou 38, Purdue 21
