Mid-season hoops: Non-con review
Missouri basketball begins conference play on Tuesday night against Tennessee. The Tigers will be playing just their second game in 16 days. Today, we take a look back at the highs and lows of the non-conference season. Tomorrow, we'll preview the SEC.
TEAM OVERVIEW
THE GOOD: For the second straight season, Cuonzo Martin lost what was expected to be his best player just days before the first game. Jontay Porter's torn knee ligaments in a scrimmage against Southern Illinois sidelined him for the season and Martin once again had to put the pieces of the puzzle back together with very little time to do so.
There were some growing pains early on as the Tigers lost three of their first six games, but Mizzou reeled off six in a row in December, including its first Braggin' Rights victory in six tries, to finish the non-conference slate 9-3 and offer plenty of signs to hope at the halfway point.
"You’ve got to find different ways to win games,” Martin said. “You project a guy to be a 15, 20 point guy, probably your leading rebounder and shot-blocker, maybe your leading steals guy. I’m not sure how many teams would just flow easy without that type of production, but I think our guys have done a great job of making adjustments."
There is a lot of basketball to be played, but if Martin can get this team into the NCAA Tournament conversation over the next two months, he will merit plenty of consideration for SEC Coach of the Year honors.
THE BAD: Missouri's schedule didn't really offer many tests that the Tigers passed. The losses to Iowa State and Kansas State were expected. A loss to Temple is the only one that can be considered a game that might have gotten away. Mizzou did beat UCF, a potential tournament team, and Xavier, although the Musketeers aren't what they used to be. UCF is the only top 50 KenPom team Missouri has beaten...and the Tigers have just three top 100 wins. So while the wins and losses look pretty good, the Tigers haven't really done anything that would impress, say, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
The SEC isn't what some thought it would be a couple of months ago, but 11 of the 13 opponents in the league are top 100 teams according to KenPom. That site still predicts Mizzou to go just 6-12 in league play.
THE UGLY: Where do the Tigers turn when Jeremiah Tilmon has an off night? The sophomore big man has managed to avoid foul trouble often enough to stay on the floor for 24 minutes a game...and when he's been out there, he's been pretty good. But just when you think a corner has been turned, he fouled out in 12 minutes against Morehead State and was largely a non-factor even when he was on the floor. Mitchell Smith is averaging 14 minutes per game, but played only four against Morehead State, and Reed Nikko sees just nine minutes per game. Those two have the two lowest offensive ratings of any regular rotation players for Missouri so far.
There is some hope that K.J. Santos can help with the interior play, but he's scored just two points so far and largely hasn't looked to be an offensive weapon when he has been on the court.
“Just try to get him a lot of minutes, get his legs up under him,” Martin said. “Defensively, he’s there. Offensively, he has to be more assertive, start looking for his offense.
“He has the tools. It’s just the confidence and doing it.”
The SEC is going to feature quite a bit more frontcourt talent than Missouri has seen so far. It's tough to say the Tigers are prepared for the jump in competition based on what we've seen.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: Missouri's three-point shooting has been the team's biggest strength. The Tigers' lead the SEC and are 22nd in the country at 39.1% from deep. Mark Smith has doubled his three-point percentage from last year, going from 23 to 46%. Jordan Geist has overcome a slow shooting start and is hitting 38.5%. Torrence Watson, Javon Pickett, Kevin Puryear and Xavier Pinson give the Tigers six players who have attempted at least 25 threes and are shooting at least 36% (two percent better than the national average). If Missouri can keep that up, the Tigers can stay in a lot of games.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Turnovers just seem to be something Martin has to live with at this point. Despite being one of the more plodding teams in the country (327th in adjusted tempo and 325th in average possession length), Missouri is averaging 13.7 turnovers per game. More alarming, Mizzou turns the ball over on 20.5% of its possessions, which ranks 259th in the country. When Missouri hangs on to the ball, it does a good job of scoring. It just needs to hang on to the ball more often. The biggest individual offenders in terms of turnover rate have been Nikko (31.6), Pinson (29.6), Mitchell Smith (28.6) and Tilmon (26.1). Somewhat alarming, in limited usage so far, Santos has a turnover rate of 62.2, although the small sample size renders it less meaningful.
INDIVIDUAL STANDOUTS
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: This is Jordan Geist without question. He is the heart and soul of this Missouri team and by far its most consistent player. He leads the team in minutes, points, shots, assists, steals and free throw percentage. When the Tigers need a play, they most often look to Geist to make it. He has played most of the season dealing with back pain, but has not missed a game and is Missouri's emotional leader.
SIXTH MAN: Freshman point guard Xavier Pinson has been a nice surprise off the bench. Pinson has a penchant for being a little wild, but has been more under control as of late. He is shooting 36% from three point range and has just five fewer assists than Geist in half the minutes. His assist rate is a ridiculous 30.0, which means 30% of the shots made by Missouri when Pinson is on the floor come directly by an assist from him. That mark would rank in the top 100 nationally if he had played enough minutes to qualify. He still plays too fast at times and turns the ball over more than you'd like, but the tools are clearly there to be an effective point guard when Geist leaves.
JACK OF ALL TRADES: Most were surprised when Javon Pickett was in the starting lineup for the first game of the season. But Pickett has quietly rewarded Martin's confidence in him. Never was it more noticeable than after a 16-point performance in the Braggin' Rights Game in which he didn't miss a shot until a meaningless layup in the final two minutes.
"He does just about whatever you need,” Illinois head coach Brad Underwood said. “Whether it’s the offensive rebound at the end of the first half on a missed free throw...whether it’s knocking down an open three, whether it’s making the extra pass, he’s skilled as a small forward, he can put the ball on the floor and he affected the game that way.”
Pickett is rarely the flashy player, won't often be the star, but is the prototypical glue guy that makes a team better.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: Hello, Mark Smith. This is the player Missouri wanted so badly and Illinois thought it was getting out of Edwardsville High School two years ago. Smith is shooting 46.2% from three-point range and has the ability to take over a game for a team that is at times challenged to score. He ranks in the top 200 in the country in offensive rating, true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage. Outside of Geist, he has been Missouri's most consistent performer. Who knows where this team would be had the NCAA not granted his waiver for immediate eligibility.