With its 81-71 loss to Auburn in the second round of the SEC tournament, Missouri's 2018-2019 basketball season is officially over. The Tigers finished a season defined by injuries with an overall record of 15-17 and a 6-14 mark in conference play. We take a look back at what Cuonzo Martin’s team did well this season, areas where it can improve, and storylines to watch during the offseason.
THE GOOD
• Defense. Missouri may have struggled to score the ball at times, but as is typical for Martin's teams, the Tigers rarely made it easy for opponents to do so. Missouri finished the season ranked No. 48 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com. Missouri’s opponents averaged 67.3 points per game, which ranked No. 60 nationally. If the Tigers can carry that kind of defense over to next season, when the team will presumably have more scorers on the court, it should see its record improve.
• Rebounding. Missouri kept itself in several games this season with its rebounding — the other hallmark of Martin-coached teams. The Tigers’ total rebounding rate of 53 percent ranks No. 45 nationally. On the offensive end, Missouri ranked No. 60 in the country (30.3 percent) while coming in at No. 87 on the defensive glass (75.9 percent). Especially considering the Tigers lost their leading rebounder from last year, Jontay Porter, before this season began, those are solid numbers.
• Three-point shooting. Missouri cooled off a bit from three-point range during the second half of conference play — a direct result of Mark Smith suffering an ankle injury on Jan. 23, from which he never recovered. Smith finished the season shooting 45.0 percent from three, which would rank tops in the SEC. In addition to Smith, Missouri should also bring back Xavier Pinson, who shot 40.0 percent this season, and Torrence Watson, who shot 36.1 percent on the year and a blistering 53.8 percent in the final six games, next year.
• Effort. Several times during the past two seasons, Martin has said playing hard is not optional on his teams. Thursday's performance against Auburn showed that his players have taken that message to heart. Despite the injuries this season, Missouri never mailed it in, instead winning three of its last five games. Even after Smith’s ankle injury, the Tigers only lost two of their last 15 games by more than 10 points. In future years, fans will hope that competitiveness will be complimented by more talent and experience.
THE BAD
• Injuries. Any expectation that Missouri could make a return trip to the NCAA Tournament went out the window when Porter tore his ACL and MCL during a preseason scrimmage. With Porter done for the year, Missouri was without its leading returning scorer and rebounder, and the player around which Martin had built the offense. The Tigers got another blow when Smith injured his ankle against Arkansas. Smith tried to gut it out and played in two more games, but he never looked healthy, and he ultimately opted to have season-ending surgery, removing another offensive weapon from a Missouri lineup that lacked them already.
• Turnovers. Missouri's achilles heel all season was its inability to take care of the ball, leading to easy points for its opponents. The Tigers turned the ball over on a whopping 20.6 of their possessions all season, which ranked No. 316 nationally. Their assist-to-turnover ratio of 0.786 ranked No. 321. Ball-security is probably the most pressing issue Missouri needs to address during the offseason. This was the second time in as many seasons under Martin that Missouri has turned the ball over on more than 20 percent of its possessions.
• Free throw disparity. Missouri fouled more than most teams this season, and it struggled mightily to get to the free throw line itself. The Tigers attempted an average of 16.5 free throws per game, which ranked No. 290 nationally and last in the SEC. In conference play, three SEC teams made as many or more free throws than Missouri attempted. Next season, the Tigers will need to place more emphasis on driving into the paint and creating opportunities at the line. Meanwhile, Missouri fouled more frequently than any other team in the conference on the defensive end. Missouri committed a foul on 28.1 percent of possessions this season, which ranked No. 338 nationally. Overall, the team got outscored by 89 points over the course of the season — nearly three points per game — at the free throw line.
• Power forward. With Porter out for the season, the position that Martin called the most important to his offense suddenly became a major weakness for Missouri. Kevin Puryear, who had worked during the offseason to build a skillset that could allow him to play the small forward spot, was thrust back to the four, and he struggled all year. Puryear’s scoring average dipped from 10.6 points per game during his first three seasons to 7.2 points per game this year. The reserves behind him were even more disappointing. K.J. Santos missed the first eight games of the season due to a foot injury and then never looked comfortable on the court. Santos played just two total minutes in Missouri’s last four games of the season. His only stat during that span: one foul. Mitchell Smith showed some flashes toward the end of the year, especially in the SEC tournament, but his 2.4 points and 2.3 rebounds a game were not enough to supplement Puryear. Missouri’s most pressing personnel need during the offseason will be addressing the power forward spot (more on that momentarily).
THE FUTURE
Even after Thursday's painful loss to Auburn that ended the season, Missouri's players and coaches expressed optimism about next season. The Tigers will lose only two contributors, Puryear and point guard Jordan Geist, and will replace Geist with Evansville transfer Dru Smith, who sat out last season due to NCAA rules. Due in part to injuries, three Tiger freshmen played at least 18 minutes per game this season, and all those players will benefit from the experience and a full offseason with the team. Plus, as of now, Missouri has two incoming freshmen committed for next season: guard Mario McKinney and forward Tray Jackson.
The expectation is certainly that Missouri improves its record next season, but whether the Tigers can get back to the NCAA tournament will depend on a few factors. Here are the storylines to watch during the offseason:
• Who else will leave the roster?
The underclassman with the most intrigue will be Porter, who almost certainly would have been a first-round pick in the NBA Draft last season had he opted to leave school. Martin said Thursday that Porter hasn't made a decision yet as to what he'll do this offseason, but he's expected to leave for the draft this time around. Plus, in today's climate, there's almost always one or two other players who transfer each year. We won't speculate on who might do so, but wouldn't be surprised if a name or two is missing from the roster when classes start next fall.
• Can the coaching staff land an impact forward?
Assuming Porter declares for the NBA Draft, Missouri will look to fill his scholarship by adding another player to the roster during the offseason. That player could be a high school prospect, a graduate transfer, or a transfer who has to sit out all of next season. The preference of the coaching staff seems obvious: Find a graduate transfer forward who can immediately fill the void at the four-spot next season. If the staff is unable to do so, Jackson will likely start as soon as he gets to campus. That's a lot to ask of a true freshman.
• Will the returners continue to develop?
For a program like Missouri that isn't reeling in five-star recruits most years, player development is the most important key to sustained success. The Tigers will bring back eight players who played at least 11 minutes per game this season, and each certainly has room to improve. Martin has said Pinson needs to gain strength and improve his defense during the offseason. Watson said Thursday he hopes to continue to add to his offensive game. Tilmon needs to continue to work at avoiding fouls and staying on the floor. (Telling stat: Missouri went 3-6 when Tilmon scored six points or fewer during the season — with the two wins coming over Morehead St. and Oregon St. — and 10-5 when he scored 10 or more.)
One interesting note Thursday was that nearly every player interviewed — Pinson, Tilmon, Watson and Mitchell Smith — said he hopes to add size and strength during the offseason. Martin, too, said that physical development is an overlooked aspect of experience.
"I think the biggest thing is the physical part," Martin said. "I don't care what you say about your game, your talent, when a guy is strong when he's older, that's valuable. ... You can impose your will on them."
