Mizzou Game Day Countdown: Week 11 at Tennessee

Missouri (4-5) will be looking to win its third game in four weeks when it goes to Knoxville, Tennessee to face No. 5 Tennessee (8-1) in week 11.

Mizzou will be looking to bounce back from its fourth one-possession loss of the season versus Kentucky in week 10. Also, Missouri will be looking to avenge last year's 62-24 home loss to the Volunteers. Tennessee on the other hand, has College Football Playoff aspirations and will be looking to close the season out strong after dropping its first game of the season to No. 1 Georgia last week.

Our game day preview will look at the five matchups to watch, four Mizzou players to keep an eye on, three keys to the game, two questions that need to be answered and a prediction of who will win.

Kickoff Information

Time: 11 a.m. CT/Noon E.T.

Location: Knoxville, TN

TV: CBS (Tom McCarthy, Rick Neuheisel, Sherree Burruss)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Spread: Tennessee -20.5

Series history: Tied 5-5

1.) Heupel's offense vs. Baker's defense

Josh Heupel will face the team he spent two seasons with as an offensive coordinator (2016-17) and he will now have a juggernaut offense behind him. Heupel's spread offense will look to attack every open part of the field and the scheme is at its best with the talent Heupel has at his disposal. Luckily for Heupel and Tennessee it does have that talent.

Quarterback Hendon Hooker has looked like a Heisman candidate for much of the season, wide receiver Jalin Hyatt has emerged as one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football after recording five touchdowns against Alabama a few weeks ago and he's likely not even the team's best wide receiver. That would be Cedric Tillman, who will be playing in his third game back from a leg injury that forced him to miss a month of action. Tennessee has a decent offensive line and the running backs aren't to be ignored, so recently extended Mizzou defensive coordinator Blake Baker will have his hands full.

On the other hand, there's a reason why Baker received an extension. He turned a team with a desolate defense into one of the better defenses in the nation. All three levels of the defense have done a 180° turn from what it was last season and that is evident. Missouri enters this game as the FBS' 14th-ranked defense at 303.7 yards per game, 26th-ranked pass defense at 192.4 yards per game and 19th-ranked run defense at 111.2 yards per game.

This game will likely force Mizzou's defense to play its best game of the season since this is the most talented and explosive offense it will face all season. Baker has already earned his extension, but this would be another huge stamp of approval if his defense can limit this offense.

2.) Mizzou's offense vs. third down

A lot of why and how Missouri's third-down struggles can be found here.

Missouri's biggest struggle has been a three-way tie between penalties, turnovers and third downs. The penalties in the last couple of weeks have gone down, but Mizzou did have a couple of fumbles last game. Fortunately for the Tigers, their defense bailed the offense out and didn't let those turnovers turned into points.

The third-down problem reared its ugly head in week 10 after Mizzou completed over 50% of its third-down attempts in three straight games. Mizzou went 2 of 13 on third down versus Kentucky and frequently found itself in third and long far too often. A common theme for the team this season. The Tigers will have to move the chains on first and second down to set up manageable third downs.

3.) Mizzou's secondary vs. Tennessee's wide receivers

It's a scary sight for a defense when an opposing offense can still perform at an optimal level without one of its best players. That's what opposing defenses were seeing when the Volunteers were still putting up 44.7 points per game without Tillman.

A season ago, Tillman, who is 6-3 and 215 pounds, had over 1,000 receiving yards and nine touchdowns a season ago. He's the team's go-to possession receiver and is still working his way back into the offense.

While Tillman was recovering Tennessee went 4-0 and Hyatt emerged as a first option at wide receiver for Hooker in the meantime. Hyatt recorded 20 receptions for 502 yards and nine touchdowns during that tie. Hyatt enters week 11 with 51 receptions for 970 yards (second in the FBS) and 14 touchdowns (first in the FBS) this season.

Someone who won't get the same attention as Hyatt and Tillman, but probably should, is wide receiver Bru McCoy, who is also a bigger body receiver like Tillman. McCoy stands at 6-3 and 220 pounds. He is second on the team in receptions (36) and reception yards (489).

With all of this being said none of this scares Baker, who has the utmost confidence in his secondary to get the job done on Saturday.

"I think they're probably the best receiving group," Baker said. "They are a complete unit. They have size, physicality, speed. But I feel good about (cornerbacks) Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw against anybody in the country. I said that a few weeks ago and I stand by that now. I think those guys are elite."

Abrams-Draine enters week 11 with 27 tackles and 11 pass deflections, which ranks 11th in the FBS while Rakestraw enters the matchup with 27 tackles, eight pass deflections, an interception, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

Safeties Jaylon Carlies, Joseph Charleston, Martez Manuel and Daylan Carnell will also help in trying to contain Tennessee's wide receiving core. There's a reason why Missouri is top 25 pass defense and it's because its a group effort in the secondary.

4.) Hendon Hooker vs. Mizzou's tackling

Hooker comes into this contest having completed 179 of 252 (71%) passes for 2,533 yards 21 touchdowns and two interceptions. Missouri's defense should and probably prefer Hooker to run the ball than throw it and for good reason. That isn't as easy as it sounds though. Hooker is 6-4, 218 pounds and has the ability to make plays with his legs too. In fact, he's the Volunteers' third-leading rusher with 468 yards and four touchdowns on 91 rushes.

"He's playing at a Heisman trophy level," Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz said. "Hendon has really developed tremendously as a passer and then uses his athleticism and speed. He doesn't rely on it. He utilizes it as an extra benefit. He's a very strong and physical runner. The first guy very rarely tackles him. So, we got to do a great job of getting into the thigh boards to bring him down."

Bringing down Hooker is a small part of the game, but it’s something that can't go unnoticed. Missouri has missed 81 tackles in nine games this season. Mizzou will obviously have to keep Hooker in check in the passing game, but there's little worse than locking up the pass and the quarterback runs for a first down. Especially, if he's bouncing off defenders before he gets it.

5.) Mizzou's defense vs. Tennessee's tempo offense

Tennessee ranks 127th in time of possession at 26 minutes per game. When the offense is as explosive as the Volunteers' you don't need to possess the ball long. It doesn't help that the spread offense at its core is a fast-paced offense. Tennessee will be looking to move the ball quick, fast and in a hurry and the key to limiting that will be forcing incompletions. The tempo is partly why Mizzou defensive tackle Kristian Williams hinted that no defense likes facing a team like Tennessee.

"Tempo is always a challenge because you have to have the endurance and longevity in order to endure that much of a pace of the game, but it goes back to preparation," Williams said. "We all fall back on each other when someone is getting tired or we motivate them to achieve the goals they want to achieve whenever they are down and out."

Another thing to think about when facing an uptempo offense is that defensive substitutions can't easily be made which hinders one of Missouri's strengths — depth. The defense is deep at every position, especially along the defensive line with the starters and their backups playing around 30-40 snaps a piece. Missouri can substitute in between plays if it wants to, but if it subs on a given play and Tennessee's offense doesn't Mizzou risks giving up 12-man on-the-field penalties which also can lead to free plays for the Volunteers.

1.) The offensive line

Like it has been for weeks and will continue to be for the rest of the season most likely, the offensive line is the position group to watch. Drinkwitz said there could be some lineup changes after right guard EJ Ndoma-Ogar went down with a leg injury in the first half versus Kentucky.

The offensive line was receiving more of a push with Ndoma-Ogar at right guard when he played, but struggled once more when Mitchell Walters, who Ndoma-Ogar replaced in the lineup in week nine, subbed in. Walters has struggled mightily this season and it was no different last week.

2.) Brady Cook

Cook had a horrible first half last week which saw him go 7 of 9 for 19 yards and have five carries for one yard and a fumble. He seemingly got much better in the second half and went 11 of 17 in the second half for 124 yards and two rushing touchdowns, but he can't -- at any point play like he did in the first half last week. He's also going to have to put up points on the board in the passing game. Missouri isn't going to typically rely on him to win them games, it appears the Tigers just worry more about mistake-free football with him. But having no passing touchdowns and no interceptions worked against South Carolina, but it likely won't work this week. He will have to protect the ball and put up points.

3.) Running backs

After the week eight win over Vandy, Drinkwitz deemed Cody Schrader as the feature back. Two games and 43 rushing attempts later he has retracted that statement a bit. Drinkwitz said that he's interested in seeing what Nate Peat and Elijah Young would do in practice this week in hopes that they've earned more touches. He wants them to have more touches because he feels that he's worked Schrader too hard, particularly last week when he was the only running back to receive a carry. He had 21 of them for 65 yards (3.1 yards per carry).

A big reason why the Tigers can't convert on third down that well is because they find themselves in third and long too often. The key to eliminating third in long is no penalties and moving the chains with two, three, four yard carries. Schrader and whoever else gets touches will have to try their best to make sure Missouri has a chance at manageable third downs.

4.) DJ Coleman

Really, the whole defensive line could be involved in this after recording six sacks last week but Coleman is the most intriguing of the group right now. He had a season-high nine tackles, two tackles for loss and 0.5 sacks. It was his fifth game in a row with a tackle for loss and his fourth game in a row with at least 0.5 sacks.

His presence in the backfield is invaluable to the defense. No matter how great a quarterback is, they'd all rather due work in a clean pocket with no pressure. Coleman provides that pressure and then some.

1.) Mizzou's offense will have to supplement its defense

Facing a high-tempo offense can be annoying for an opposing defense for a number of reasons including the ones mentioned in the matchups to watch. Another problem with Mizzou facing a high-tempo offense is fatigue. When Tennessee's drive ends whether it be because of a punt, touchdown, turnover etc. then Mizzou's offense will have to put together a drive to give the defense a breather. If the defense has to play like it did against Kansas State when it had to keep going out on the field after Missouri threw four interceptions on consecutive drives it can spell disaster. At the very least, Mizzou will have to sustain some drives that are eight plays or more.

2.) No self-inflicted wounds

Missouri truly had one turnover versus Kentucky with the second turnover being on the last play of the game with Missouri trying to lateral the ball inside its own red zone before a Kentucky defender recovered it. But it's not just turnovers its penalties too. Mizzou has 62 penalties for 523 yards in nine games this season which is 6.89 penalties per game. That ranks tied for 90th in the FBS. Tennessee is actually ranked tied for 124th in penalties per game with 8.44, but Tennessee also has the offensive firepower to bail itself out. Mizzou doesn't have that. A clean game with little to no penalties will be of great importance for the Tigers every week, especially this week.

3.) Red zone offense

Missouri has scored on 24 of 33 red zone attempts (72%) with 18 of them being touchdowns. That means Mizzou is only scoring a touchdown on 54% of its red zone attempts. This is partly why the Tigers are the seventh-worst red zone offense in the nation. Mizzou has to get to the red zone and score. This isn't the game to rely on kicker Harrison Mevis, who has been inconsistent this season, to score points. Mizzou can't take the chance of missed field goals and even if the field goals are made it won't be enough to beat Tennessee.

1.) Will this be the week Missouri's defense says 'Enough is enough'?

It's clearly evident that the strength of Missouri's team is its defense. The media knows it, the fans know it and the players and coaches recently admitted it. For weeks, this defense has kept the offense in games and Mizzou at the very least should be entering this game 5-4 instead of 4-5.

After all the one-possession losses will this be the week the defense gets out of character and tries to overcompensate for the lack of offensive production?

This defense is too prideful and talented to mail it in and not try, but when it's clear that the offense won't help it's not out of the realm of possibility the Tigers' defense becomes too eager to make a play and put themselves in a compromising position.

2.) Which Brady Cook will show up this week?

It seems like in the games you'd expect Cook to play well in he doesn't (Auburn and Vanderbilt) and in games you'd expect him to struggle mightily in he doesn't (Georgia, South Carolina). This is a game that could go either way for him. Tennessee's defense isn't too great, but it doesn't have to be because the offense is a scoring machine. If Cook plays like how he did versus South Carolina that doesn't result in a win, but it does make it more likely that the team has a chance to be in the game. If he plays like he did versus Kentucky or against Auburn there is almost no chance that Mizzou is even in striking distance let alone has a chance to steal one on the road.

Jarod: I think the defense struggles in this game. Not because it will be outclassed by Tennessee's offense, I just don't trust Mizzou's offense to put up long drives and touchdowns. If the offense can't put up touchdowns or sustain drives then that means the defense will be on the field a lot more. I don't care how good a defense is, if it is tired it gets dramatically worse. Give me 34-14 Tennessee.

Gabe: I've seen Missouri play virtually the same game for six weeks in a row. They're going to score somewhere between 14 and 24. The question is whether the defense can possibly hold Tennessee down. Only Georgia has done it so far. I think Missouri's got a good defense, but I think it's unrealistic to expect to hold the Vols to 13 points. I think 28 would be a good day for the Mizzou defense and I don't think the offense is capable of keeping up even if it's 28. The only way Missouri wins this game is if the defense scores. Maybe twice. Realistically, I see something like 34-10 Tennessee.

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