Mizzou hoops preview: Five things to watch in 2019-20
Cuonzo Martin’s third season at Missouri tips off Wednesday, as the Tigers host Incarnate Word. Outside of Columbia, optimism doesn’t exactly abound for the post-Porter era. The Tigers were picked to finish 13th out of 14 teams in the SEC preseason poll by the media. Inside the program, however, hopes seemed to be higher. Speaking to reporters last month, Martin, who has gone on record as saying he believes this team could contend for an SEC title, said “if we finish 13th in this league, then this will be one of the best leagues to ever lace them up in all of college basketball. If we’re healthy.”
Health, of course, is the number one key for every team, but especially Missouri. The Tigers have lost their most highly-touted player before the first media timeout of the season-opener in each of Martin’s two seasons at the school. But as of this moment, everyone on the roster appears healthy. Tiger fans will hope that good fortune continues so Martin finally has a chance to put his best team on the floor.
Defense and rebounding, the hallmarks of Martin-coached teams, will also play a large role in determining how far this year’s Missouri team can go. However, neither attribute will be listed below simply because, at this point, it’s assumed that the Tigers will play solid defense and give a consistent effort on the glass. Martin has said many times that he considers both areas “not optional,” and even in an otherwise disappointing 2018-19 season, Missouri remained in the top third of the national rankings in both categories. The Tigers ranked No. 51 in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, and No. 41 in rebounding rate.
As long as Missouri carries those aspects of its identity over from last season and doesn’t lose a critical offensive player early in the year, here are five other key areas that will determine whether the Tigers wind up closer to the outside expectations for this season or Martin’s lofty goals.
1. Cut down on turnovers.
With Jontay Porter injured last season, Missouri’s offense already lacked firepower. But the Tigers did themselves no favors with their ball security. Missouri turned the ball over 14 times per game in 2018-19, which ranked No. 273 nationally. The team’s turnover rate — they turned it over on 21 percent of possessions — was even worse, ranking No. 318 out of 353 Division I teams. Meanwhile, the Tigers averaged just .467 assists per made field goal, which checked in at 298th in the country.
A lot of those turnovers were unforced. According to KenPom, 12 percent of Missouri’s possessions last season ended in a non-steal turnover such as an offensive foul, travel or throw-away. That ranked No. 333 in the nation.
That wasn't not a new problem for Martin, but it’s one his team needs to rectify if it hopes to improve its offense this season. In 2017-18, Missouri struggled nearly as badly with turnovers, giving the ball away on 20.8 percent of possessions, with non-steal turnovers on 11.3 percent. Those figures ranked No. 313 and No. 305 nationally, respectively.
Players and coaches say there’s no one magic solution for the turnover issues, but there is reason for optimism that the unforced errors, at least, could decrease. Chief among those reason is that, outside of point guard Jordan Geist, who has since graduated, last season’s backcourt featured little experience. Xavier Pinson, Javon Pickett, Torrence Watson and Mark Smith all played more than 18 minutes per game a season ago in their first season at Missouri. Martin hopes another season of experience for them, as well as Evansville transfer Dru Smith, who is expected to man the point this season after he sat out all of last year due to NCAA transfer rules, will lead to fewer self-inflicted errors.
Martin also emphasized that he wants players to know their roles and play to their strengths and weaknesses. He said that several of the Tigers’ 11 turnovers in the first half of their exhibition game against Central Missouri came when players tried to make a difficult or flashy play. After halftime, when he told the team to slow down and let the point guards run the show, the team only turned the ball over twice.
“Don’t try to be a playmaker,” Martin said after the scrimmage, “make the right play. I think that’s the most important thing, and for the most part in the second half, we kept the ball in the point guards’ hands.”
2. Keep Tilmon on the floor.
While Dru Smith may have the keys to the team as the starting point guard, it becomes clear talking to Martin and his players that The Tigers want to run the offense through center Jeremiah Tilmon. Tilmon, picked to the all-SEC second-team by the league’s coaches, has shown glimpses of dominance during his first two college seasons. He improved his scoring, rebounding, blocks and free throw percentage from his freshman season to last year, when he averaged 16.9 points and 8.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. He recorded 15-plus points seven times and logged four double-doubles as a sophomore.
“He’s strong, he’s fast, and he can score it around the rim one-on-one with guys,” Martin said of Tilmon back in September. “... When you watch him now, he’s been a dominant presence.”
The problem for Tilmon has been his inability to stay on the floor due to foul trouble. Tilmon averaged 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes last season after averaging 7.6 in 2017-18. He has fouled out of 10 games in each of the past two seasons. Those foul issues cropped up again in Missouri’s exhibition, as Tilmon played just nine minutes in the first half and 19 total minutes due to four fouls.
Martin has continued to try to combat Tilmon’s foul-prone tendencies during the offseason, starting him off with three or four fouls during practice scrimmages and making him hold his arms in what Tilmon called the “field goal” position (straight up and down, like a football official signalling a kick is good.) But Tilmon said the biggest change he’s made in the past seven months has been mental — not getting frustrated due to an early foul call or two and letting that sap his aggressiveness.
“I can get calls for making certain movements the wrong way, and the way (the officials) are looking at it from a different angle, it looks like it’s a foul,” Tilmon said. “But once they already call the foul, then it’s too late. So I still gotta play aggressive and hard regardless, so that’s what I’m going to do. I can’t let fouls determine how hard I play or not.”
Missouri will hope the adjustment is enough to keep him on the floor longer, as that might be the single biggest predictor of success for this team. Last season the Tigers went 8-14 in games in which Tilmon played fewer than 28 minutes or did not play. They were 7-3 when he played 28 minutes or more.
3. Get more out of the 'four'
After Porter went down last season, the power forward spot went from an expected strength for Missouri to its greatest weakness. Now-departed senior Kevin Puryear struggled, averaging a career-low 7.1 points per game in more than 23 minutes. His primary backups, K.J. Santos and Mitchell Smith, were worse, combining for 3.8 points in 23 minutes per game.
But an infusion of fresh talent at the position has players optimistic. Martin has revealed that freshmen Kobe Brown and Tray Jackson are expected to split duties at the four position, and he touted their versatility, saying he considers them both guards because of their ability to handle the ball and knock down three-pointers on the offensive end. They showed that offensive ability Friday, as Brown led all scorers with 12 points in just 16 minutes against Central Missouri and Jackson chipped in seven points. Brown went 3-8 from three-point range and Jackson went 1-2, and each player recorded two assists.
“Kobe, he can shoot the ball very well, and he can move for his size,” Tilmon said, “and then you got Tray. He’s very aggressive and athletic. And they’re hungry. Both of them are very athletic, and they’re strong and they can play that four spot. They’re going to hold their own.”
Martin likes that Jackson and Brown can allow Missouri to put four three-point shooting threats on the floor at pretty much all times, but he also said he wants the duo to take advantage of post-up or driving opportunities when they present themselves (Brown is listed at 6-foot-7 and Jackson at 6-8). The main question will be whether the young pair can stand up to the rigors of guarding SEC power forwards and avoid too many freshman mistakes. Martin will hope so, since he singled out the importance of the four position in Missouri’s offense.
“A lot of things go through that position,” Martin said. “... I think when you have (a guy at) that position that can do a lot of different things — if he can create a switch on a ball screen, if he’s able to post up and score, or if he can make shots around the perimeter and they don’t want to switch ball screens — it’s a great position, it’s a position we demand a lot out of, and you have two young, talented guys at the position right now.”
4. Keep shooting the three.
In Martin’s first season at Missouri, the Tigers made a school-record 306 three-pointers. Their 39.0 percent mark from deep ranked No. 26 nationally. Last season, the team took a small step back, making 36.3 percent of their threes and 264 total shots from behind the arc, but outside shooting was still the clear strength of the offense. Missouri ranked No. 78 nationally and fifth in the SEC in the category.
With the aforementioned lineup that should keep four shooters on the floor at all times this year, look for the Tigers to continue to lean on outside shooting, even though the three-point line got moved back 16 ¾ inches during the offseason. Five players on the roster shot 36 percent or better from behind the arc in their last collegiate season: Dru Smith, Mark Smith, Mitchell Smith, Pinson and Watson.
“If they’re open,” Martin said in September, “let them fly.”
If Missouri is able to shoot the ball well from the perimeter again this season, it should open things up for Tilmon to operate in the post, or give him plenty of options if he’s double-teamed by opponents. Look for Mark Smith to be the most important of those outside shooters. The Illinois transfer shot 45.5 percent from outside last season but injured his foot on Jan. 23 and never returned to full health. Missouri shot better than 35 percent from behind the arc just three times in its final 15 games after Smith’s injury after topping that mark in 12 of the first 17 games.
5. Get to the line.
While Martin doesn’t want his players to shy away from shooting the three, he also doesn’t want them jacking up outside shots every possession. Striking a balance between shooting from the perimeter and driving to the basket will be key.
Martin pointed to driving as the best way to draw fouls and earn free throw opportunities, something Missouri struggled to do last season. The Tigers finished No. 291 nationally in free throw attempts per game last season at 16.4. Even when you adjust for the team’s slower tempo, it ranked No. 259 in percentage of points scored from the free throw line.
The issue reared its head again in the Tigers’ exhibition, as the team didn’t attempt a free throw in the first half against Central Missouri. Afterward, Martin admitted to being concerned by that statistic, though the Tigers did attempt 19 free throws in the final 20 minutes.
“I think because those three-pointers looked easy and they were open, we settled instead of being aggressive,” Martin said. “And there are certain guys, a few guys on the team, any time that three-point shot is open, have to be ready to shoot the ball, but some other guys you have to take advantage of your ability to drive the basketball.”
Last season, Missouri finished 10-8 in games when it attempted at least 15 free throws and 5-2 when it shot 20 or more times from the line. When the Tigers shot 15 or fewer free throws, it finished with a record of 5-9.