Mizzou Hoops Season Prediction

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It's that time of year. Mizzou plays an exhibition game on Friday night against Central Missouri before opening Cuonzo Martin's third season against Incarnate Word on Friday, Nov. 8th.

Predictions have been all over the map for this team. The Tigers have been tabbed as high as No. 13 in the country (yes, really) to No. 13 in the SEC (yes, really). So with everybody throwing out their predictions that mean almost nothing, but will be remembered and held against them in perpetuity if (when) they go wrong, we figured we'd throw our hats in the ring.

Here is our breakdown of the 2019-2020 season. We'll go through the schedule and offer up some individual thoughts and predictions after that.

The gimmes: We learned a few years ago that technically no game is a gimme when UMKC came to Columbia and won. But if something like that happens, the season isn't gonna be anywhere near what anybody thinks. Here are the games Missouri has in the non-conference schedule that absolutely have to be wins:

Incarnate Word, Northern Kentucky, Wofford, Morehead State, Charleston Southern, Southern Illinois, Chicago State. That's seven games that you can pretty much put in the win column. Northern Kentucky and Wofford are solid low-major teams and should offer the biggest scares on this list but, again, the Tigers need to win them.

The swing games: There are no automatic losses on the non-conference schedule. Understand, I'm not saying Mizzou is going 13-0, but there are no games that you look at and think "this would be a huge upset if Missouri wins."

The most highly-regarded team is Xavier, ranked 18th by KenPom in the preseason, and that game's on the road. We see that as a likely loss. Illinois (35) and Butler (33) are in the same general neighborhood as the Tigers (39) according to Pomeroy. Most of the human analysts see Illinois as a much improved, likely tournament bound team this season. They think less of the Bulldogs. Let's say Mizzou splits those games. The Tigers are at Temple in a game they'll probably be favored to win. Mizzou gets back in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge and goes to West Virginia in January as well. Again, we'll give Mizzou a split between the pair. Not sure the individual outcome of either game, but we'll pick them to win one and drop the other. The final non-conference game is against either Oklahoma or Stanford in the CBE in Kansas City. Pomeroy has the Sooners at 25, but most human analysts think quite a bit less of them; OU was picked 8th in the preseason Big 12 poll. Stanford is 90th in KenPom. Missouri should beat either one in a friendly neutral court environment.

Overall, it's a non-conference schedule that offers some good names and some decent teams. There aren't any great teams on Missouri's slate, but there are six recognizable programs that should at least be in or around the top 100, which would give the Tigers some decent resume building wins.

Predicted non-conference record: 10-3. That may be a game too high. I actually see 9-4 as a little bit more likely. The difference is probably the road games at West Virginia and Temple. I picked them to win one. If they drop both, you're probably not getting to ten wins in the non-conference.

The SEC is an incredibly balanced league this year. Kentucky and Florida stand out above the rest. But beyond that, there's a whole mess of teams that could find themselves in the top four if they get a few breaks or playing on the first day of the conference tournament if some things go against them. Missouri's schedule is a bit front-loaded, offering tougher challenges up front than toward the end. The Tigers will need to get through the first third of the league schedule in decent shape and then try to finish strong. There really aren't any "gimmes" in league play so we're just going to take this game by game.

At Kentucky: If the Tigers win this one, start pencilling them in the NCAA Tournament. We don't think they will. Record: 10-4, 0-1

Vs Tennessee: The Vols are going to be down this year. Given the start to the league schedule, Missouri needs to pick up a win here. We'll say they do. Record: 11-4, 1-1

Vs Florida: Just three games into the league slate, Missouri has already faced the two best teams. Grad transfer Kerry Blackshear is a matchup problem for the Tigers. Gators win. Record: 11-5, 1-2

At Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are in that group of teams that will probably be separated by just a couple of games and could find themselves almost anywhere in the league standings. But it's in Starkville and we give the nod to the home team in a tight one. Record: 11-6, 1-3

At Alabama: See the above. The Tide is expected to be one of the league's more improved teams with Nate Oates taking over and sophomore Kira Lewis leading the way. Tigers lose another one on the road. Record: 11-7, 1-4

Vs Texas A&M: Buzz Williams is a heck of a coach, but he's taking over a program that needs some rebuilding. At home, the Tigers end a three-game skid. Record: 12-7, 2-4

Vs Georgia: This is perhaps the most important game on the first half schedule. Tom Crean has upgraded the talent at UGA, led by Anthony Edwards, who most expect to be the league's best freshman. There are always a couple of games that don't go as planned. We think this is one of them as the Tigers drop one at home. Record: 12-8, 2-5

At South Carolina: The Gamecocks are going to be somewhere in that fat middle of the SEC. I think Missouri is a better team. But going on the road against Frank Martin's team, we think they drop this one. Record: 12-9, 2-6

At Texas A&M: I'm really picking these last two games as a tandem. I think Mizzou wins one, but not both. Since I picked them to lose at South Carolina, I'll take them to win in College Station. Record: 13-9, 3-6

Vs Arkansas: Another swing game. Eric Musselman has made over the Razorback roster with transfers. The home team tends to win games in this series. Give the Tigers the nod. Record: 14-9, 4-6

At LSU: The Tigers won the SEC last year with a whole lot of controversy. But it hasn't yet adversely impacted the team they're putting on the floor. LSU won't win the league, but should still be pretty good. The home Tigers beat the visiting ones. Record: 14-10, 4-7

Vs Auburn: Missouri should be more equipped to handle Bruce Pearl's style of play this year. Auburn should be a team that competes for a top four spot in the league. But predictions are no fun if you just pick everything according to form. We'll go Mizzou in an upset here. Record: 15-10, 5-7

Vs Ole Miss: Another game that's going to shuffle the conference standings. Kermit Davis did a great job in year one and should have a team that finishes in the upper half of the league...but Missouri gets its second straight big home win. Record: 16-10, 6-7

At Arkansas: Coming off two straight big wins, the Tigers suffer a letdown in a place where they've seen plenty of games slip away in recent seasons. Record: 16-11, 6-8

At Vanderbilt: The Jerry Stackhouse hire is going to be interesting to follow. Even if it works, we think the Commodores are a year or two away. Missouri wins. Record: 17-11, 7-8

Vs Mississippi State: The Tigers complete the climb out of a 2-6 hole to start back to .500 with a win. Record: 18-11, 8-8

At Ole Miss: We gave the Tigers the nod at home, but we don't think they get the season sweep. Record: 18-12, 8-9

Vs Alabama: Playing a game they're going to have to win to break even in the league and give themselves a solid NCAA Tournament shot, we'll say Mizzou gets it done in a nail-biter. Record: 19-12, 9-9

A .500 record has meant anywhere from a fifth to a ninth place finish since the league expanded to 14 teams when Mizzou and Texas A&M came on board. Obviously tiebreakers will be a factor here. But 9-9 would put the Tigers right in the middle of the league standings, probably around 7th or 8th.

That would mean Mizzou avoids playing on the first day of the SEC Tournament but is essentially playing a tossup game in its opener in Nashville against the 9th or 10th seed. A win would be Missouri's 21st of the season. If they go into the tournament in this position and win two, they'll be an NCAA lock. If they win one, they'll have a solid shot. If they lose the opener, they could find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.

We aren't going to start predicting conference tournament games when we have no idea who will finish where and who will play who. So our prediction is that the Tigers go to the SEC Tournament with NCAA hopes, but nothing locked up. The week in Nashville will determine whether the Tigers slide to the right side of the bubble and in the dance or the wrong side of it and in the NIT.

The upside of our prediction is a team that's probably looking at an 8/9 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If we are underestimating Missouri, the Tigers could be two or three games better and be more like a six seed. We see that as the ceiling.

The downside of the prediction is a team that can't get a critical late win or two to push them over the edge and finds itself as a 1 or a 2 seed in the NIT. If they drop a couple more of the swing games, we're looking at a team that should still be good enough to play postseason basketball, but won't have legitimate NCAA hopes without winning the SEC Tournament. That's the floor.

STARTING FIVE: Dru Smith, Javon Pickett, Mark Smith and Jeremiah Tilmon are near locks. We think Kobe Brown gets the nod to start the season at power forward.

OFF THE BENCH: Torrence Watson and Xavier Pinson will play plenty in the backcourt. Mario McKinney will be in the rotation, but probably more as a situational energy guy for a few minutes a half. Up front, Mitchell Smith and Tray Jackson log most of the backup minutes. Reed Nikko sees action mostly in the case of foul trouble or if the Tigers are playing a team that demands they go big.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: The most important player on this team is Jeremiah Tilmon. But I think Dru Smith ends up being the guy who is considered the most valuable at the end of the year based on his role and his numbers.

LEADING SCORER: While Dru Smith is the MVP and Tilmon is most important, we're going to lean to Mark Smith as the guy who ends up with the most points.

LEADING REBOUNDER: If it's not Tilmon, something is wrong.

BEST FRESHMAN: All three freshmen should be in the rotation. We think Kobe Brown has the best first year due to a combination of college readiness and available playing time.