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Offseason decisions will define Missouri's 2018-19 potential

Just two days have passed since Missouri’s 67-54 loss to Florida State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But with draft decisions looming — and what Missouri’s recruiting class will look like based off of those decisions — PowerMizzou looks at where the Tigers are looking, what they’re bringing back and who else could jump into the fold.

Who’s gone:

Kassius Robertson — He was Missouri’s most valuable player this year, and it really wasn’t close. Expected to be a spot-up shooter and contributor before the season, Robertson made the All-SEC first-team, led the Tigers in scoring and helped to carry them back to the NCAA Tournament.

Jordan Barnett — Barnett took a big step forward this year, and he was the best player on the floor for Missouri at different points this season. His arrest for suspicion of DWI a week before the NCAA Tournament will put a damper on how he’s remembered in a Mizzou uniform, but without Barnett, the Tigers wouldn’t have made it to the Big Dance in the first place.

Brett Rau — As a walk-on who really wasn’t expected to be more than a mop-up duty player, Rau gave Missouri valuable minutes in both the SEC and NCAA Tournament games.

Who’s coming in:

Torrence Watson — A scoring machine from St. Louis, Watson should have an immediate impact next year, and he’s got a chance to start depending on what happens with both Porter brothers this offseason. Watson won’t blow you away with his 3-point shooting, but he’s a good ballhandler, can slash to the basket and will fill it up if you leave him open.

Javon Pickett — Pickett was originally expected to play this year at Sunrise Christian Academy, but due to a shoulder injury, he moved home, had surgery and has been rehabbing since. He also brings a scoring presence to Missouri’s lineup, but he might need a redshirt year to get completely healthy and bulk up. His impact also depends on what the offseason looks like for Cuonzo Martin and Co.

K.J. Santos — If Michael Porter Jr. opts to leave for the NBA, Santos will likely start at the ‘3’ spot next year. After redshirting at Tallahassee Community College this year, he’ll have three years of eligibility left, and judging by his Twitter and Instagram posts, Santos has bulked up his 6-foot-8 frame substantially. As a freshman at Illinois-Chicago in 2016-17, he averaged 7.1 points per game and shot 37 percent from beyond the arc.

Xavier Pinson — A late addition to Missouri’s 2018 class, Pinson has yet to sign his NLI but is expected to once the late signing period opens in April. He’s got the height (6’2) that Cuonzo Martin likes in his guards, but Pinson will need to put on some serious weight to be ready to play significant minutes as a freshman. As it stands now, he weighs about 165 pounds, and that might be generous. When he gets on the floor, though, Pinson has elite passing ability, great basketball IQ and exceptional athleticism.

Even if Jontay and Michael Porter return, Missouri still has one scholarship open in the 2018 class, and Cuonzo Martin has been heavily pursuing Webster Groves (Mo.) four-star guard Courtney Ramey for it. The consensus No. 1 player in Missouri is being targeted by Illinois, South Carolina, Ohio State, Texas and Oklahoma State as well. But with Missouri’s lack of point guard depth and a chance to play close to home, the Tigers might be too good to pass up.

Missouri has also reportedly shown interest in Evansville grad transfer shooting guard Evan Taylor, who led the Missouri Valley in scoring last season at 21.2 points per game. The Tigers won’t be alone though, as ESPN’s Jeff Goodman reports Butler, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ohio St, Ole Miss, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Illinois, Georgetown, Creighton, Minnesota, Boston College, Indiana, UCLA, Arizona, Wake Forest, Miami, Purdue, Baylor and Maryland have also contacted Taylor.

Webster Groves guard Courtney Ramey.
Webster Groves guard Courtney Ramey. (Patrick Clark / Athlete's Eye Photograpy)
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Who we think is coming back:

Kevin Puryear — Puryear had to take on a smaller role with the addition of the Porter Bros. and Jeremiah Tilmon, but he remained the emotional leader of this group and a key cog in Missouri’s frontcourt. Should the Porters leave, expect Puryear to return to the starting lineup at the power forward spot. If that happens, he’ll be expected to take on a much bigger scoring role again, similar to the one he had as a freshman.

Cullen Vanleer — Vanleer presents an interesting dilemma for head coach Cuonzo Martin because of his ACL injury against Arkansas. Likely out until at least next January, Vanleer could use a redshirt next season and gain another year of eligiblity, but I’m not sure Missouri would want to keep his scholarship on the books that long, especially with the loaded upcoming 2019 class. It’s possible that Martin inserts him at the end of the rotation when he’s healthy and Vanleer plays out next year as his last.

Jordan Geist — Geist was another player who really was seen as more of a reserve entering the year, especially with Robertson, Blake Harris and C.J. Roberts coming into the fold. But with the latter two transferring, he was thrust into the starting point guard role and filled it admirably. His true role is more of a defensive stopper and reserve guard, but don’t be shocked if he again plays a significant number of minutes next year.

Reed Nikko — Nikko probably got more minutes than anyone expected because of Michael Porter Jr.’s injury and Jontay Porter and Jeremiah Tilmon’s consistent foul trouble. After hip surgeries, Nikko doesn’t move particularly well, and he often got beat against more athletic big men. He’ll surely play some minutes next year, but if the Porters leave, expect Missouri to go after an immediately eligible big man.

Mitchell Smith — He bulked up quite a bit in his redshirt year after tearing his ACL last season, and he could contribute next year if Missouri is short on depth up front.

Jeremiah Tilmon — Of the five freshman Missouri signed in 2017, there’s a good chance Tilmon is the only left on the roster by June. He showed flashes of absolute dominance — especially in the home finale vs. Arkansas — but his foul troubles were just backbreaking at times. Another offseason in the weight room and around the college game should do wonders for a player that when he’s not in foul trouble is one of the most dominant big men in the SEC.

Ronnie Suggs — A transfer from Bradley, Suggs will walk on again next year at Mizzou. With the influx of guards the Tigers have, Suggs is likely to be an end-of-bench player that sees a few minutes during blowouts.

Adam Wolf — Wolf is a fan favorite, and his ACL tear early in the season was heartbreaking. Despite holding the all-time record for single-season 3-point percentage in school history, Wolf’s role as a walk-on really isn’t expected to change.

And then it gets interesting…

Whether Missouri is a top-10 team entering next season or one that likely misses the NCAA Tournament almost entirely depends on the decisions of Michael Porter Jr. and Jontay Porter. Both said after the loss to Florida State Friday night that they’ve made no decision about their future.

Jontay Porter (left) and brother Michael (right) said they have not made any decisions about entering the NBA Draft after this season.
Jontay Porter (left) and brother Michael (right) said they have not made any decisions about entering the NBA Draft after this season. (Jordan Kodner)

“Spring break is coming up, so I’ll probably relax at the beach,” Jontay said. “I’ll probably sit down with my parents and see what my options are. … Just like me deciding to reclassify here it will be a win-win regardless of what I do. I’ll get better at the sport regardless of what I do and coming back to Mizzou would be a real treat. It would be good for me. Get my body right. Get my game better and be a better team next year.”

Added Michael: “I’m not thinking about that right now. I’m thinking about my team. I’m not worried about myself. … I’ve got to do what’s best for me. I probably won’t make that decision for a little while.”

The elder Porter is universallly regarded as a top-10 pick in this year’s draft, despite playing just 53 minutes in his freshman season. When he signed with the Tigers last spring, he said he wanted to “leave a legacy” in the program. While the turnaround that happened in large part because of decision to come to Columbia is part of his legacy, it has been rumored that he might want another year at the college level and he hasn’t shut down the possibility. If he returns, he is almost certain to be the projected No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft, a preseason All-American and likely the preseason national player of the year. It also gives him a year to put more weight onto his wiry 6-foot-10 frame and prove to NBA executives that he’s fully recovered from the back injury that sidelined him. All that said, a multi-million dollar contract and the chance to play in the greatest basketball league in the world might be too good to pass up.

For Jontay, who skyrocketed up NBA draft boards this season, the decision might be a bit tougher. In most mock drafts, he’s a fringe first-round prospect. While he could change that at the NBA Combine or in individual workouts, he’s not expected to jump much higher than the 20th overall pick. Should he return, Jontay is likely a potential lottery pick and could anchor the nation’s best front court with Tilmon and his brother.

The deadline for declaring for the 2018 NBA Draft is April 22, and the deadline to withdraw your name and return to school is May 30, ten days after the end of the NBA Draft combine. Players can maintain their eligibility to return if they do not sign with an agent and maintain their academic eligibility.

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