Quick shots and turnovers: Examining Mizzou's second-half struggles
A concerning trend has emerged for the Missouri basketball team — and not just the fact that the Tigers have lost three games in a row. In three of its past four games and four times since conference play began, Missouri has given up a second-half run that saw them outscored by at least 15 points. The most recent instance, at Georgia on Tuesday, involved the Tigers turning a 13-point lead into a 14-point deficit in about 13 and a half minutes. They ultimately lost by 10, 80-70.
Missouri experienced similar second-half collapses against Mississippi State, Alabama and Ole Miss. In Starkville on Jan. 5, the Tigers led by 14 points early in the second half before losing by 15. Missouri actually beat Alabama about a month later, but only after allowing a 21-2 run in less than five minutes for the Crimson Tide, which cut the Tigers’ 22-point lead to one. The following game, Ole Miss outscored Missouri 22-6 to open the second half, putting the game out of reach and coasting to a 21-point win.
After the loss at Georgia, head coach Cuonzo Martin declined to compare the four problematic performances. “Different things happen in different games,” he said. And he has a point. The Mississippi State loss was characterized by the Bulldogs, and particularly guards D.J. Stewart and Iverson Molinar, getting red hot from the field. Mississippi State made 18 of its final 25 field goal attempts. Alabama’s surge had more to do with Missouri’s offense losing its rhythm, with low-percentage, late-clock shot attempts and turnovers leading to quick scoring opportunities for the Crimson Tide. And after the loss at Ole Miss, Martin took issue with his team’s effort, as the Tigers lacked the fight to respond to the Rebel run.
Tuesday, Martin said the issue had more to do with offensive execution than effort. Georgia made its run when Missouri’s shots stopped falling, and the Tigers then compounded the errors by trying to speed up, which led to more missed shots and a flurry of turnovers. During the period in which Georgia outscored Missouri 45-22, the Tigers shot four of 12 from the field, including one of seven from three-point range, and turned the ball over eight times.
“I didn’t think the effort fell off,” Martin said. “I just thought a quick shot here, a live-ball turnover, missed layups for us around the rim. A couple of those for us, it’s like, the momentum shifts, they make a play here and all of a sudden they hit two or three threes in a row. That changed the game.”
Looking back through Missouri’s second half letdowns, however, there have been some similarities. Namely, once things have started going wrong, the Tiger offense has struggled to find an answer. More often, they’ve actually made matters worse by pressing, which has led to mistakes.
The issues that plagued Missouri against Georgia, quick shots (particularly three-pointers) and turnovers, have factored into all four instances where the team has been unable to stop an opponent’s run. Let’s examine each game individually. During the worst stretch of Missouri’s second half at Mississippi State, the Tigers were outscored 40-11 in just over 15 minutes. Clearly, the defense struggled. But the offense added gasoline to the proverbial fire. Missouri had 24 offensive possessions during that span. The Tigers shot 5-18 from the field and made one of seven three-point attempts. They turned the ball over eight times. Those are remarkably similar to the team’s numbers during Georgia’s run.
Against Alabama, Missouri missed 11 of its final 12 field goals, including missing all seven shots during the Tide’s 21-2 run. Five of those came from three-point range. Missouri also turned the ball over twice, both of which led to fast break buckets. Nearly half (10) of Alabama’s points came in transition.
At Ole Miss, Missouri didn’t shoot particularly poorly, making 48.9 percent of its field goals for the game and three of seven during the Rebels’ 22-6 surge to start the second half. However, the Tigers missed both three-pointers during that stretch and, more damaging, turned the ball over four times.
Combining the negative runs from all four games adds up to a little more than 40 minutes of game time. During those stretches, the Missouri offense shot 12-44 overall and 2-21 from three-point range with 21 turnovers. Those missed threes and giveaways have often contributed directly to points on the other end, and never more so than Tuesday night. Georgia scored 14 of its 16 transition points during the final 15 minutes of game time.
“I thought a couple guys took some quick ones,” Martin said Tuesday. “And again, that’s one of those things that we talk about, you have to understand how you got the lead and maintain that. I mean, just because there’s a lead and this shot seems to be easy or looks good, it’s not the best shot if that’s not who you are all the time. And I think that’s the biggest key, just finish what we tried to do to get us to that point, and let’s finish the game that way.”
Obviously, the offensive issues don’t fall on the shoulders of just one or two players. But if there’s a couple guys whose performances stand out, and not in the right way, during Missouri’s four second-half collapses, it has been the team’s primary point guards: Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson. Instead of steadying the offense and creating high-percentage looks when the team needs momentum most, the duo has contributed quite a few of the turnovers and quick shots that have plagued the Tigers.
During Georgia’s 45-22 run, Smith and Pinson combined to shoot one for seven from the field, including missing four three-pointers. They committed a total of five turnovers compared to four points (all by Pinson) and two assists. That is less than ideal from Missouri’s two leading scorers.
It was also not the first time they struggled during a second half. Combining the runs from each of the four games once again, Pinson’s stat line would be four points on 1-12 shooting, including misses on all six three-point attempts. He’s committed four turnovers compared to one assist. Smith also has four points on 2-11 shooting, including 0-4 from behind the arc, and eight turnovers versus four assists.
Martin talked after the Georgia game about the need for a player to step up and “put you on my back.” He didn’t mean one individual needs to score every point, he clarified, but calm the team down and make sure it isn’t compounding bad plays with more mistakes. It would make sense for that leadership to come from the point guard position. During Missouri’s four second-half meltdowns, at least, Pinson and Smith have been more of the problem than the solution.
“It’s like, somebody has to take the bull by the horns, so to speak, and say, ‘okay, here we go, we have to get a stop here, let’s execute it,’” Martin said. “It can’t always come from the sideline. And I think that is the biggest key in going through those situations, understanding what it takes to win, having the grit to win, the grit to get the stop, because we have all that. But it can’t be waiting on somebody else to do it for you. Somebody has to take the torch.”
It should be noted that, by looking solely Missouri’s four second-half collapses, we’re basically cherry-picking the worst stretches of basketball this team has played all year. Smith and Pinson have played a big role in the Tigers winning 13 games and climbing into the top 10 of both the AP and Coaches’ polls last week, and the team as a whole has successfully stymied opponents’ runs and found ways to win this year — more times than not, actually. However, we’ve now seen four instances in 12 league games where Missouri has lost momentum and the offense has compounded the problem with quick shots and turnovers, creating a snowball rolling downhill with too much momentum for the Tigers to stop.
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