Prior to each Mizzou hoops game this season, we will get Tiger fans set with The Starting Five. In this feature, we'll give you the anticipated starting lineups for each team, break down keys to a Missouri win and offer up a prediction.
Here is the breakdown of today's game against Alabama.
OFF THE BENCH: Freshman Torrence Watson averages about 20 minutes per game off the bench. The Tigers look for him to provide some scoring when he's in the game. Xavier Pinson played just five minutes, and none in the second half, in the team's game against South Carolina on Sunday, but he has shown impressive flashes at times this year. K.J. Santos has worked his way into the regular rotation after missing nine games due to a foot injury. He'll likely be the first post player off the bench. Reed Nikko will relieve Tilmon whenever he heads to the bench.
OFF THE BENCH: Sophomore guard John Petty started all of last season as well as the first 11 games of this year for Alabama, but coach Avery Johnson has brought Petty off the bench in the last few games. Petty still averages more than 30 minutes per game, however, and 11.3 points per game. He's the Crimson Tide's best three-point shooter, having made 30 three's on the year. Sophomore Alex Reese backs up Hall in the post, and he's made the most of his playing time this year, averaging 7.3 points in 14.3 minutes per game. Galin Smith will also see some minutes on the interior, while seniors Riley Norris and Avery Johnson Jr. contribute fairly regularly in the backcourt.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Location: Mizzou Arena
Tipoff: 8:00 p.m.
TV Info: SEC Network
Radio: Tiger Radio Network. For a list of affiliates, click here.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Keep Jeremiah Tilmon on the floor.
In case you've somehow missed the lengthy discussions about it in the past week, Tilmon got into early foul trouble against both Tennessee and South Carolina. Missouri then got abused inside by both teams. Tilmon has struggled with fouls throughout his college career, but the past three games have been particularly problematic. During that span, Tilmon played a grand total 34 minutes, and he's averaged just 3.7 points and 1.0 rebounds per game. Due to the lack of interior depth behind Tilmon, Missouri needs the big man to not only stay on the floor but assert himself against Alabama. The Crimson Tide feature a small lineup, with only one starter taller than 6-foot-7, so if Tilmon is able to keep himself out of foul trouble, the opportunity for a big night could be there.
2. Keep the hacking to a minimum.
Alabama has lived at the free throw line this season. The Crimson Tide have attempted 25.5 free throws per game on the season, which ranks No. 17 in the country. They've shot the ball fairly well from the charity stripe, too, averaging 17.6 made free throws per game. Unfortunately for Missouri, fouling has been an issue of late. The Tigers have committed a foul on 28.5 percent of opponent possessions this season. That ranks No. 316 nationally. During the team's two-game losing streak, Missouri has been outscored by 17 points at the free throw line. Missouri cannot afford to let this game get into the upper 70's or 80's, and limiting the number of free throws it allows Alabama would be a good way to keep the contest low scoring.
3. Win the turnover battle.
Turnovers have vexed Missouri all season, and quite simply, when Missouri has turned the ball over frequently this season, it has lost. The Tigers have a 1-5 record this year in games in which they have turned the ball over more times than their opponent. The good news for Missouri fans is that Alabama has been turnover prone this year as well. The Crimson Tide average 13.7 turnovers per game on the season, which is just a hair better than the Tigers' 14.2 turnovers per game. If one team turns the ball over, say, five times more than the other, thus allowing for easy transition points, that could easily decide this game.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Alabama has been all over the map this season. The Crimson Tide lost to Northeastern and Georgia State in non-conference play, but they've also upset Arizona and Kentucky (it's worth noting that both of those games came at home). Since beating Kentucky, however, Alabama has dropped games to LSU and Texas A&M. This is one of the few games on its SEC schedule in which Missouri will likely be favored, but the two teams are also evenly matched enough that, if one team gets into foul trouble or struggles with turnovers or gets hot from three, that could decide the outcome. We'll predict a close game and give the Tigers the nod since they're playing at home.
Prediction: Missouri 67, Alabama 64
Player of the Game: For the first time in 2019, Jeremiah Tilmon finally manages to stay on the floor for more than 20 minutes. Tilmon avoids early fouls and finishes with 14 points and 10 rebounds.
