After a nine-day layoff since its last game, the Missouri basketball team will finally kick off conference play on Tuesday. Its first opponent will be the No. 3 team in the country, Tennessee.
After going 26-9 and winning a share of the SEC regular season title a year ago, Rick Barnes' squad returned its top six leading scorers, and it is off to a 12-1 start so far this year, with its only loss coming in overtime to Kansas. Missouri's defense will face a tall task if the Tigers are to pull off an upset; the Volunteers rank seventh nationally in points per game, seventh in shooting percentage and first in assist-to-turnover ratio. They opened SEC play by beating Georgia by 46 points.
We get you set for the matchup with the projected starting lineups for Tennessee and Missouri, the keys to the game and a final score prediction.
Off the Bench: Now that junior guard Lamonte Turner is healthy, he will likely be used as a spark plug off the bench. How many minutes Barnes is comfortable playing Turner remains to be seen. Turner has missed nine games this season due to a shoulder injury. He returned to the court against Georgia and played 15 minutes, but most of those minutes came once the game had already been decided. Turner averaged 10.9 points in about 25 minutes per game last season. Fellow junior Jordan Bowden will also see plenty of action in the backcourt. He's averaged 8.8 points and 3.1 assists in more than 27 minutes per game on the year. Senior John Fulkerson is typically the first forward off the bench; he's scoring just more than four points per game on the season.
Off the Bench:
Freshman point guard Xavier Pinson has provided Missouri a spark off the bench of late. Pinson struggled with turnovers early in the season, but in the team's past five games, he's recorded 16 assists versus eight turnovers. Fellow freshman Torrence Watson can provide scoring off the wing. Sophomore forward Mitchell Smith will likely see a fair amount of playing time to give the Tigers more size on the interior. K.J. Santos and Reed Nikko could also see action down low in the event of foul trouble.
Tip Time Information
Location: Mizzou Arena
Tipoff: 6 p.m.
TV Info: ESPN 2
Radio: Tiger Radio Network. For a list of affiliates, click here.
Keys to the Game
1. Survive down low
Tennessee will look to run its offense through Grant Williams, the reigning SEC player of the year. Missouri will face a challenge in slowing down Williams and his partner in the frontcourt, Kyle Alexander. The Tigers will have to choose between guarding Williams with Jeremiah Tilmon, their most talented post player, thus providing Alexander a mismatch against Kevin Puryear or Mitchell Smith, or trusting the undersized Puryear to lock down Williams. (And that's assuming the foul-prone Tilmon can stay on the court, which Cuonzo Martin should never take for granted.) Most likely, it's going to require help from the wings to frustrate Alexander and Williams, and even though that could open up shots for Tennessee on the perimeter, not allowing Williams to get into a rhythm will be priority number one.
2. Frustrate Schofield
Williams may be the headliner for Tennessee, but shooting guard Admiral Schofield has emerged as an all-conference caliber sidekick. Schofield has come up particularly clutch in big games this season. He poured in 30 points in a win over Gonzaga, 29 against Memphis and 20 against Louisville. He's shooting better than 45 percent from three-point range on the year, but he's also capable of putting the ball on the floor and scoring at the rim. In short, he'll be a difficult matchup for Missouri. If Missouri were to play straight man-to-man, it would likely be Mark Smith's job to guard Schofield, but don't be surprised to see Jordan Geist or Javon Pickett switch onto him in an effort to keep him from getting into an offensive groove.
3. Make it ugly
In a sense, Missouri already has the blueprint for an upset of Tennessee, because the Tigers beat the Volunteers at Mizzou Arena a season ago. The final score: 59-55. Missouri might not be able to hold Tennessee under 60 this season — the Volunteers haven't scored fewer than 76 points in a game so far — but the Tigers almost certainly can't win a game that reaches the 70's or 80's. Missouri needs to slow down the pace of the game and limit Tennessee's possessions. It also can't turn the ball over frequently and give the Vols easy scoring opportunities — something that has plagued the Tigers in their three losses this year. Martin builds his teams on defense, and while this will perhaps be the best offense that defense faces all season, it will be up to the defense to keep Missouri in this one.
The Bottom Line
If there ever was a situation that sets up favorably for Missouri to pull off an upset, this might be it. The Tigers are playing at home after a nine-day lay-off. Expect Martin’s team to come out ready to play. But Tennessee has a legitimate case to be ranked No. 1 in the country, and if the Volunteers play a soliid game, Missouri likely won't be able to score with them. We predict the home crowd keeps this one interesting for a while, but it will take an off shooting night for the Vols, or perhaps foul trouble for Williams or Schofield, for Missouri to actually pull off the upset.
Prediction: Tennessee 77, Missouri 68
Player of the Game: Jordan Geist channels the energy in the building and scores 18 points.
