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Starting Five: Mizzou vs. Xavier

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Following an 11-day break from competition, the Missouri basketball team will return to the court Tuesday to face a familiar non-conference foe. The Tigers(6-3) will host Xavier (7-4) in the fourth meeting in the past five seasons between the two programs.

Prior to this season, the Musketeers lost head coach Chris Mack to Louisville after Mack spent the past 10 years at Xavier. The team has also had to replace its three leading scorers from last season in Trevon Bluiett, J.P. Macura and Kerem Kanter. As a result, Xavier has struggled a bit against good competition early this season, losing each of its four games so far this year against top 100 teams in the Ken Pomeroy ratings. However, since Xavier promoted former Mack assistant Travis Steele to the head job, Missouri head coach Cuonzo Martin and several Tiger players said the Musketeers' style remains similar to the Mack-coached teams the Tigers have faced in recent years.

Here is the projected starting lineup for Xavier and Missouri, the keys to a Tiger win and a final score prediction.

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Xavier Projected Starters
Player Height Year Position Pts/Game Reb/Game

Kyle Castlin

6-4

Sr.

G

6.0

3.4

Quentin Goodin

6-4

Jr.

G

12.7

2.2

Paul Scruggs

6-3

So.

G

12.7

4.7

Naji Marshall

6-7

So.

F

13.2

7.3

Tyrique Jones

6-9

Jr.

F

10.7

8.1

Off the bench: Six-foot-11 senior Zach Hankins and six-foot-10 junior Ryan Welage complete a formidable frontcourt rotation for Xavier. Hankins is averaging 9.7 points per game this season and Welage 8.9. Freshman guard Keonte Kennedy has come off the bench to play more than 24 minutes per game this year, and Elias Harden has had a few big games, including a 14-point outburst against Illinois, in which he went 4-4 from three-point range.

Missouri Projected Starters
Player Height Year Position Pts/Game Reb/Game

Jordan Geist

6-2

Sr.

G

12.5

4.0

Mark Smith

6-4

So.

G

12.8

6.0

Javon Pickett

6-4

Fr.

G/F

5.3

3.0

Kevin Puryear

6-7

Sr.

F

11.2

6.0

Jeremiah Tilmon

6-10

So.

C

9.2

6.2

Off the bench: Freshman wing Torrence Watson appears to be rounding into form. The former four-star recruit has scored 12 points in each of the past two games. Fellow freshman Xavier Pinson has cut down on his turnover and shot the three-ball well, at just over 42 percent on the year. He can provide a spark off the bench at point guard. Redshirt sophomore forward Mitchell Smith has been rebounding the ball well of late, and he'll likely see plenty of court time. Reed Nikko will spell Jeremiah Tilmon.

TIP TIME INFORMATION

Tipoff: 6 p.m.

TV info: ESPNU or WatchESPN

Radio: Tiger Radio Network. For a list of affiliates, click here.

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Control the boards.

Asked last week what the team has been focusing on during its layoff from competition, Martin and several players all said rebounding, particularly on the defensive end of the floor. Martin always demands rebounding production from his teams, but this year's Missouri team has struggled at times on the glass. The Tigers rank No. 86 nationally in overall rebounding rate and No. 126 in defensive rebounding rate. In the team's last game, Oral Roberts, which didn't feature a single player taller than six-foot-eight, pulled down 14 offensive rebounds. Xavier, meanwhile, has rebounded 31.6 percent of its misses this season, which ranks No. 56 nationally. The Tiger offense likely isn't good enough to allow the Musketeers to repeatedly score easy second-chance points.

2. Keep up the hot outside shooting.

Xavier's most prominent weakness this season has been its three-point defense. The good news for Missouri fans is that three-point shooting has emerged as one of the Tigers' strengths. Xavier has allowed its opponents to shoot 37.6 percent from behind the arc this season. That ranks No. 298 among Division I teams. Missouri, meanwhile, ranks No. 32 nationally and tops in the SEC in shooting the three, having made 39 percent of its three-pointers on the season. Look for the Tiger offense to play inside-out in order to get open looks on the perimeter for Mark Smith and company.

3. Defend the paint.

Xavier's offensive strength is clear: At 60.3 percent the Musketeers are the best two-point shooting team in the country. Its offense is predicated on Quentin Goodin and Paul Scruggs slashing to the basket and either scoring or creating opportunities for the talented big men around them. Expect Missouri to pack its defense a bit more than usual and dare the Xavier guards to shoot threes. Keeping center Jeremiah Tilmon out of foul trouble and on the floor is always important for Missouri, but it might be even important than usual in this matchup because of Tilmon's defensive presence at the rim.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Facing a young team at home, the name of the game for Missouri will be limiting easy baskets for Xavier. That means avoiding turnovers (the Tigers' biggest issue in their three losses this season), rebounding well on the defensive end of the floor and guarding the Musketeer big men in the post. Assuming Missouri is able to do all of those things, this actually appears to be a decent matchup for the Tigers, as Xavier doesn't typically run at a high tempo or pressure opponents in the backcourt. As usual, establishing Tilmon early and allowing him to create open looks for the shooters around him will be key.

Prediction: Missouri 66, Xavier 63

Player of the game: Mark Smith continues his hot shooting from three-point range and scores 19 points.

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