The History of No. 1
You may have heard by now that Missouri landed the No. 1 basketball recruit in the country last week. Michael Porter Jr. has been atop the 2017 Rivals150 for a while now, and is expected to retain that spot after his performance at the McDonald's all-American Game this week.
It is the first time in the Rivals.com era that Mizzou has landed the country's top player. The previous highest-ranked recruit was Linas Kleiza, who was No. 17 in 2003 (Tony Mitchell was No. 12 in 2010, but did not qualify). So what can Tiger fans expect? Here is a look at the previous top-ranked prospects, along with some perspective on their impact on their college teams.
We listed the player's statistics, along with the team's performance the year before the prospect arrived and during his first (and only) year on campus. We tracked players beginning in 2006, the first year after the NBA instituted the rule that players must be a year out of high school before entering the draft.
| Year | Player | Team | Stats | Record Before | Record After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
Josh Jackson |
Kansas |
16.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 30.8 mpg, all-Big 12 |
33-5, Lost in Elite Eight |
31-5, Lost in Elite Eight |
|
2015 |
Skai Labissiere |
Kentucky |
6.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 15.8 mpg |
38-1, Lost National Semifinal |
27-9, Lost 2nd Round |
|
2014 |
Jahlil Okafor |
Duke |
17.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 30.1 mpg, ACC POY, all-American |
26-9, Lost 2nd Round |
35-4, National Champions |
|
2013 |
Andrew Wiggins |
Kansas |
17.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 32.8 mpg, all-Big 12 |
31-6, Lost in Sweet 16 |
25-10, Lost in 2nd Rd |
|
2012 |
Shabazz Muhammad |
UCLA |
17.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 30.8 mpg, all-PAC 12, 2nd-team all-American |
19-14, no postseason |
25-10, Lost First Round |
|
2011 |
Austin Rivers |
Duke |
15.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 33.2 mpg |
32-5, Lost Sweet 16 |
27-7, Lost First Round |
|
2010 |
Josh Selby |
Kansas |
7.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 20.4 mpg |
33-3, Lost 2nd Round |
35-3, Lost in Elite Eight |
|
2009 |
John Wall |
Kentucky |
16.6 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.3 rpg, 34.8 mpg, SEC POY, All-American |
22-14, NIT Quarters |
35-3, Lost in Elite Eight |
|
2008 |
B.J. Mullens |
Ohio State |
8.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 20.3 mpg, Big 10 6th man of yr |
24-13, NIT Champions |
22-11, Lost First Round |
|
2007 |
Michael Beasley |
Kansas St. |
26.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 31.5 mpg, Big 12 POY, All-American |
23-12, lost NIT 2nd Rd |
21-12, Lost 2nd Round |
|
2006 |
Greg Oden |
Ohio State |
15.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 28.9 mpg, All-Big 10, Big 10 DPOY, All-American |
26-6, Lost 2nd Round |
35-4, Lost National Final |
The average record of teams that the top prospect joined was 28-8. Seven of the 11 teams had made the NCAA Tournament the season before and only one, UCLA, did not make the postseason the year before signing the top national prospect. The Bruins won 19 games, which was the fewest among the 11 teams we looked at here.
The average record of teams the year after the No. 1 prospect arrived was 29-7. All ten teams made the NCAA Tournament. Two made the Final Four and one (Duke with Jahlil Okafor) won the national championship. Seven teams went further in the postseason and one reached the same point, though four of them actually had a worse record.
The overall impact of the top recruit was technically only one win. Of course, that is skewed by five of those players joining teams that had already won at least 31 games the season before they arrived.
In other words, no top prospect has ever joined a team (in this era) like Missouri. The Tigers won just eight games last season and have won only 27 in the previous three (fewer than four of the teams in this table won in a single season prior to adding the top prospect in the country).
Greg Oden and Jahlil Okafor both helped their teams improve by nine wins in year one. Okafor won the national title and Oden finished as a runner-up. John Wall helped Kentucky jump by 13 wins, though that also had plenty to do with John Calipari replacing Billy Gillispie.
The least impact was felt from Skai Labissiere. Kentucky won 11 fewer games.. B.J. Mullens had a marginal impact on Ohio State. The record was almost identical, but Mullens was not a starter on the Buckeyes' NCAA Tournament team. Kansas actually won more games with Josh Selby than the previous year, but his contribution was limited due to suspension and injury and he did not even play in Kansas' NCAA Tournament loss that season.
Of course, the previous experience of the top players is simply a guideline. Porter is none of those players. How his college career will go is an unknown. Rivals.com national basketball analyst Eric Bossi lent some perspective on Porter compared to prior top prospects.
"Michael is a kid who's pushing 6-10 has an unbelievable skill level and I think what separates him is you see so many kids with that size and skill who are really power forwards who are trying to be wing players," Bossi said. "The class of 2016 has proven to be an incredible class and I think he has the potential to be better than any of them.
"Not all number ones are built the same. This guy is number one because of pro potential and because of his potential the day he arrives on campus."