Prior to each Mizzou hoops game this season, we will get Tiger fans set with The Starting Five. In this feature, we'll give you the anticipated starting lineups for each team, break down keys to a Missouri win and offer up a prediction.
Here is the breakdown of todays game against Arkansas.
OFF THE BENCH: Lately, freshman Torrence Watson has been the first wing off the bench, while K.J. Santos has been the reserve big man who's seen the most playing time. Watson has provided an offensive spark in several of Missouri's games this season, but he's seen his playing time limited because he's struggled at times on the defensive end. Santos, who transferred to Missouri from Illinois-Chicago, missed seven games due to a foot injury but has averaged nearly 15 minutes per game when he's seen action. Fellow forward Reed Nikko will spell Jeremiah Tilmon whenever necessary, and sophomore Mitchell Smith may also see some minutes in the frontcourt. One storyline to monitor is whether freshman point guard Xavier Pinson sees much action against Arkansas. Pinson has shown flashes of brilliance this season — he had 14 points and no turnovers against Tennessee — but he didn't play at all in the second half against South Carolina or in the entire game against Texas A&M. Instead, Ronnie Suggs played a career-high 18 minutes against the Aggies.
OFF THE BENCH: Junior forward Adrio Bailey has been Arkansas' leading scorer off the bench so far this year, averaging 6.5 points in nearly 20 minutes per game. Freshmen Keyshawn Embery-Simpson and Desi Sills each play about 15 minutes per game in the backcourt. Sophomore forward Gabe Osabuohien hasn't been a scoring threat for much of the season, but he scored a season-high 13 points in 20 minutes in Arkansas' last game.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
TIPOFF: 8 p.m.
LOCATION: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, Arkansas
TELEVISION: SEC Network/WatchESPN
RADIO: The game will be broadcast on the Tiger Radio Network. For a list of affiliates, click here.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Limit turnovers.
Speaking to the media on Tuesday, Missouri head coach Cuonzo Martin was asked if this year's Arkansas team presses as much as typical Mike Anderson-coached squads. He answered that it depended on the Razorbacks' opponent, then paused and laughed. Everyone in the room likely had the same thought as Martin: If that's the case, they'll pressure Missouri heavily. Turnovers have been an issue for the Tigers since Martin took over as head coach. This season, Missouri is 2-5 when it turns the ball over more times than its opponents. Arkansas forces an average of 15.9 turnovers per game, which ranks tied for 35th in the country. Despite its current four-game losing streak, this year's Arkansas team is solid defensively, and if the Razorbacks are able to turn an abundance of Tiger turnovers into easy points, Missouri likely won't be able to score enough to keep up.
2. Crash the glass
As stated above, Arkansas ranks high in almost every defensive category this season. The Razorbacks are No. 60 in defensive efficiency, according to the Ken Pomeroy ratings, and No. 42 in opponent shooting percentage. They rank No. 29 nationally in steals and No. 15 in blocks per game. But Arkansas' most glaring weakness is its defensive rebounding. Expect Missouri to crash the offensive boards in search of easy scoring opportunities. Arkansas ranks No. 307 out of 353 Division I teams in defensive rebounding percentage. Missouri, meanwhile, has been decent at generating second shots. The Tigers rank No. 85 in offensive rebounding percentage. The biggest key for Missouri in this category will be keeping Tilmon on the court and out of foul trouble as he does battle with Arkansas center Daniel Gafford.
3. Don't give up the big run
Several of Missouri's losses this season have included a familiar phenomenon. As the first half winds down, the team's energy appears to wane, and the Tigers go cold on the offensive end. That has resulted in some backbreaking runs for opponents to close out the first half. If the Tigers string together empty possessions against Arkansas, they could be in trouble. Especially when it's playing at home, Arkansas thrives off of energy and tends to score in bunches. The Tigers saw that last season, when the Razorbacks jumped out to a 30-12 lead in Fayetteville. Last year, the Tigers closed that gap but ultimately fell short. This year's team has not shown it has the offensive firepower to make up a significant early deficit.
THE BOTTOM LINE
After losing its last four games, Arkansas figures to enter this one desperate for a win. Missouri's biggest challenge will likely be matching the Razorbacks' intensity and remaining composed in the face of constant, full-court pressure. Also, if Tilmon winds up in foul trouble, that could spell disaster for Missouri, as the Tigers don't figure to have anyone else in the frontcourt who can disrupt Gafford on the defensive end. If Missouri takes care of the ball, crashes the glass and shoots it well, the Tigers certainly have a chance, but Arkansas really doesn't present a favorable matchup, especially in Bud Walton Arena.
Prediction: Arkansas 74, Missouri 68
Player of the Game: Javon Pickett continues to show off his knack for being in the right place at the right time by scoring in transition and after offensive rebounds. Pickett finishes with 15 points and 7 boards.
