Prior to each Mizzou hoops game this season, we will get Tiger fans set with The Starting Five. In this feature, we'll give you the anticipated starting lineups for each team, break down keys to a Missouri win and offer up a prediction.
Here is the breakdown of todays rematch against Arkansas, in which Missouri will look to avenge a Jan. 23 loss in Fayetteville.
OFF THE BENCH: Torrence Watson made his second career start Saturday against Texas A&M and played well, scoring 12 points in 31 minutes. He'll likely start again Tuesday, assuming Mark Smith isn't able to return from an ankle sprain he suffered the last time Missouri played Arkansas. If Smith doesn't play, freshman Xavier Pinson will also see increased playing time. Pinson is averaging 8.5 points and 2.3 assists per game in the last six contests. Walk-on Ronnie Suggs will also likely see some playing time.
In the frontcourt, we expect Jeremiah Tilmon to return to the floor after he missed Saturday's game due to pain from a wisdom tooth removal, but if he cannot play, Reed Nikko will likely start in his place. Even if Tilmon does play, Nikko will see some minutes in relief. Mitchell Smith has worked himself into the backup spot behind Kevin Puryear at power forward, and though he has struggled lately, K.J. Santos might see some playing time as well.
OFF THE BENCH: Freshman forward Reggie Chaney has started a couple games this season, and he will likely be the first player off the bench for Arkansas. Chaney is averaging 5.7 points and 3.7 rebounds per game on the year. Fellow freshmen Keyshawn Embery-Simpson and Desi Sills each play about 15 minutes per game in the backcourt. Sophomore forward Gabe Osabuohien rounds out the Razorbacks' regular rotation.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
TIPOFF: 8 p.m.
LOCATION: Mizzou Arena
TELEVISION: ESPNU/WatchESPN
RADIO: The game will be broadcast on the Tiger Radio Network. For a list of affiliates, click here.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Get healthy.
Against Texas A&M, Missouri was missing two of its three leading scorers in Tilmon and Mark Smith, and in the second half, it showed. The Tigers, already limited offensively due to the season-long absence of Jontay Porter, don't figure to have the offensive firepower to compete with Arkansas if both players are out again Tuesday. The team's three-point shooting has declined precipitously since Mark Smith left the lineup — Missouri is shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season but just 29.0 percent in the past five games — and without Tilmon, the Tigers have no reliable scorers in the frontcourt. Missouri was able to hang in against a Texas A&M team that was itself short on size and without a starter in the post on Saturday, but facing Arkansas and its star big man Daniel Gafford, the Tigers will need Tilmon to not only play, but avoid foul trouble and be productive on both ends of the floor.
2. Limit turnovers.
All season, the turnover margin has been a consistent predictor of the Missouri's success. The Tigers are 2-8 this season when they turn the ball over 14 times or more. Turnovers loomed especially large in the meeting between Missouri and Arkansas in Fayetteville. Missouri gave the ball away 24 times, and Arkansas scored 27 points off those turnovers. Players and coaches alike expressed disgust with the sloppy play after the game, saying the team let Arkansas speed it up with its vaunted full-court press and players failed to "meet the pass" in the face of pressure. Saturday will show whether Missouri learned from the experience. The Tigers may not be able to score enough to keep up with Arkansas anyway, but they certainly won't be able to if they give Arkansas 20-plus easy points off giveaways.
3. Get to the free throw line, and then capitalize.
Perhaps the most disturbing statistic from Missouri's rough offensive performance against Texas A&M was that the Tigers got to the free throw line just four times. That was the fewest free throw attempts a Missouri team has committed since March 1, 2011. Missouri has to attack the rim more and earn easy scoring chances at the free throw line, especially against an Arkansas team that has been foul-prone all year, and particularly so on the road. On the season, Arkansas ranks No. 328 out of 353 Division I teams in personal fouls per game, averaging 20.8 per contest. Razorback opponents have scored 22.9 percent of their points from the free throw line. That ranks No. 324. Especially if it is shorthanded again, Missouri's best chance at a victory might be to create foul trouble for Arkansas and free throw opportunities for itself by being strong with the ball and attacking the rim.
THE BOTTOM LINE
A Missouri team with Tilmon and Mark Smith on the floor might be favored in this game. After all, the Tigers led Arkansas for nearly the entire first half in Fayetteville (losing only because of the barrage of turnovers in the second half) and Mike Anderson's struggles on the road are well-documented. But without one or both of those players, it could be a challenge for the Tigers to keep pace with Arkansas' scoring. If Missouri is going to pull out a victory, it will almost certainly need to win the turnover battle and get better production from its post players.
Prediction: Arkansas 67, Missouri 65
Player of the game: Javon Pickett continues his strong play of late by scoring 14 points and grabbing six rebounds.
