Prior to each Mizzou hoops game this season, we will get Tiger fans set with The Starting Five. In this feature, we'll give you the anticipated starting lineups for each team, break down keys to a Missouri win and offer up a prediction.
Here is the breakdown of todays game against LSU.
OFF THE BENCH: Missouri has had the same starting five for every game so far this season, but that could change against LSU. Both Mark Smith and Javon Pickett suffered injuries in the team's last game. According to a Friday update, Pickett, who hurt his back, will be active for the game, but Smith will be a game-time decision. Cuonzo Martin said after the Arkansas game that he believed Smith suffered a sprained ankle. If Smith does not play, walk-on Ronnie Suggs is probably the top candidate to start in his place. Suggs has played 30 total minutes in the team's past two games, and he scored five points against Arkansas. Freshman guard Xavier Pinson could also start in place of Smith, and even if he doesn't, he would likely see more minutes in Smith's absence. Pinson didn't play at all against Texas A&M last Saturday, but he flashed his ability in an eight-point, 21-minute performance against Arkansas.
If Pickett's availability is limited, fellow freshman Torrence Watson would likely take most of his minutes. Watson has had an up-and-down season so far, but he's averaging about 19 minutes per game. Expect K.J. Santos to be the first post player off the bench, with Reed Nikko spelling Jeremiah Tilmon whenever he leaves the floor.
OFF THE BENCH: Freshman guard Ja'vonte Smart has started 13 games for LSU this season, and although he's been coming off the bench of late, he still plays starter's minutes. Smart is averaging 10.3 points and 2.3 assists in 28 minutes per game. Forward Emmitt Williams also plays more than 20 minutes per game, and he's averaging 8.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. Darius Days, another forward, rounds out the Tigers' regular rotation. Days is averaging 6 points and 4.4 boards per game.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
TIPOFF: 5 p.m.
LOCATION: Mizzou Arena
TELEVISION: SEC Network/WatchESPN
RADIO: The game will be broadcast on the Tiger Radio Network. For a list of affiliates, click here.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Learn from the Arkansas loss.
Specifically, from the 24 turnovers Missouri committed against the Arkansas press. While LSU doesn't exactly pressure opponents like the Razorbacks, the visiting Tigers rank fourth nationally in steals per game. Given that taking care of the ball is an obvious weakness for Missouri — it surrendered 13 steals against Arkansas and ranks No. 317 nationally in turnover rate — expect LSU to look to generate some easy points by pressuring the Missouri guards. Missouri has shown this season that it does not have the offensive firepower to overcome giving up easy points in transition, and that will be especially true if Smith cannot play.
2. Slow it down.
LSU is clearly the more talented team in this one, especially on offense. LSU ranks in the top 20 nationally in points per game (No. 11 at just over 83 points per contest), field goal percentage (No. 18), two-point percentage (No. 13) and free throws made per game (No. 14). This will be easier said than done, but Missouri needs to find a way to take LSU out of its offensive rhythm and keep the score of this game in the 60's (interesting note: Missouri is 10-0 this season when it holds opponents under 65 points and 0-7 when the other team scores 70 or more). According to KenPom.com, LSU ranks No. 72 in adjusted tempo, whereas Missouri ranks No. 324. If Missouri can force the visiting Tigers to work deep into the shot clock and also avoid giving up points in transition, it might be able to keep this one close.
3. Hope for late-December Tilmon to show up.
Missouri center Jeremiah Tilmon has frustrated fans during his two seasons in a Missouri uniform because he has shown flashes of dominance, never more so than when he averaged 19.5 points and 11 rebounds per game in back-to-back wins against Xavier and Illinois earlier this season. Tilmon has since struggled to stay on the court — he's fouled out in four of the team's past six games — but if ever there was a game in which Missouri could use a big performance out of Tilmon, this is it. If Smith isn't able to play, Missouri will need someone to generate points, and Tilmon is the one player on the roster who, if he's playing well, could match LSU's sheer athleticism at his position. Plus, while LSU's post players have been a strength this season (Kavell Bigby-Williams is the reigning SEC player of the week after averaging 13 points and 10.5 rebounds in the past two games) LSU has not been stellar rebounding the basketball at the defensive end. It ranks No. 182 in defensive rebounding percentage. It may not be terribly likely, but if Missouri gets a double-double from Tilmon and he's able to impact the game without fouling on the defensive end, it will have a chance.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Entering this matchup on an eight-game winning streak, LSU has shown itself not just to be a contender in the SEC but a potential second-weekend-of-the-NCAA-Tournament type of team. Even at full strength, Missouri would have to play one of its best games and likely hope for an off shooting night from LSU in order to keep it close. If Smith, who singlehandedly kept Missouri in the game against Arkansas, does not play, this one could get out of hand early.
Prediction: LSU 76, Missouri 61
Player of the Game: If Smith doesn't play, someone in Missouri's backcourt has to score, so we'll guess Jordan Geist contributes a team-high 18 points. He also should be due to take care of the ball better than he did Wednesday, when he committed five turnovers.
