We turn the Starting Five preview to the women’s side today. In this feature, we’ll give you the anticipated starting lineups for each team, break down keys to a Missouri win and offer up a prediction. Here’s the breakdown of tonight’s game between Missouri (18-7, 7-4) and No. 5 Mississippi State (22-1, 10-0).
OFF THE BENCH: Freshman Akira Levy was at her best in Missouri’s upset victory over Texas A&M. She finished with four points and four assists, but the box score doesn’t show her impact. Levy had zero turnovers in 24 minutes and the Tigers offense kicked into another gear with her on the floor. Levy’s speed in transition and ability to attack the basket unlocks another facet for Missouri. The Tigers move at a faster when she is the lead guard. Their off-ball action increases and Levy’s threat of getting to the basket creates space for shooters. Levy averages 2.4 turnovers a game in SEC play and Mississippi State is fourth in the conference with 8.6 steals a game. Levy’s turnovers tend to be live-ball. Therefore, it will be crucial for the Tigers for her to handle pressure and control the offense with limited mistakes. Levy could cause problems for the Bulldogs second unit, but she must stay under control because Mississippi State is great at capitalizing off opponents’ mistakes. The Bulldogs did just that in their last game decided by 10-points or less. Mississippi State had 30 points off turnovers in their 80-71 victory over Georgia on Jan 10. The Bulldogs are averaging 18 points off turnovers in their last five games.
OFF THE BENCH: Mississippi State’s starting lineup and season changed on Jan 17, when starting forward Chloe Bibby suffered a season-ending left knee injury. She started the first 18 games for the Bulldogs and her injury brought sophomore Andra Espinoza-Hunter off the bench and into the starting lineup. The next game, Mississippi State’s bench had 43 points in the Bulldogs 90-42 victory over Florida. Since then, Mississippi State is averaging eight bench points a game in four double-digit victories. Sophomore guard Bre’Amber Scott leads the bench in scoring. She averages 6.6 points a game and shoots 50 percent from the field. Scott is also second in the team in made three-pointers and shoots 47 percent from three, which leads the team.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
TIPOFF: 8:00 p.m.
Location: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, Mississippi
TELEVISION: SEC Network
RADIO: KTGR 1580 AM
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Contain Teaira McCowan. She is Mississippi State’s best player and the front-runner for SEC player of the year. The six-foot-seven center has dominated conference play for the Bulldogs. Through 10 conference games, McCowan leads the SEC in field goal percentage (61 percent) and rebounds (15.3 per game), along with being third in blocked shots (2.6 per game) and fourth in scoring (17.9 per game). Earlier this season, Mississippi State was up 40-34 over Tennessee at halftime, then McCowan put up 14 points and seven rebounds in the second half to bring the Bulldogs to a 28-point victory. She finished with 24 points and 15 rebounds. McCowan has four straight double-doubles, and during that four-game span, she has averaged 20 points and 15 rebounds per game.
How Missouri coach Robin Pingeton decides to defend McCowan will play a big role in the outcome of this game. Doing so could involve several different tactics, such as doubling out of the post or packing in the defense to limit her touches. It will be interesting to see how the defense will mimic or change from the defensive game plan against Vanderbilt’s Mariella Fasoula. They are different players, but the Tigers held Fasoula to two points and did a good job preventing deep post touches. Forwards Cierra Porter, Emmanuelle Tahane and Hannah Schuchts will have to bring that effort to limit McCowan’s scoring and presence on the boards.
2. Control the Paint. Mississippi State is first in the SEC and fifth in the nation in rebounds per game. Also, the Bulldogs are second in the nation with 18 offensive rebounds per game. It’s the biggest area that Mississippi State can exploit Missouri. The Tigers have a +1 rebounding margin on the season, compared to +12.3 for Mississippi State. Missouri has been out-rebounded in three of its four conference losses this season. It will be tough to keep McCowan and forward Anriel Howard off the boards. However, the Tigers must keep the rebounding margin close to stay in this game. Oregon outrebounded Mississippi State 27-26 and the Bulldogs had 11 second-chance points in the Ducks' 82-74 victory on Jan 18. Limiting offensive rebounds and second-chance points are the Tigers' best chance at an upset in Starkville.
3. Cunningham Starts Hot. Sophie Cunningham came out and set a tone for Missouri in the past two games. She had 10 first-quarter points against Texas A&M and then 12 first-quarter points against Vanderbilt. The Tigers are a different team when she is aggressive offensively. The game against the Commodores is a perfect example. She came out and immediately looked to put that game away. Cunningham started 4-4 from three, Missouri went on a 12-2 run and Vanderbilt never recovered. The Tigers were outscored 24-14 in the first quarter against South Carolina and 18-7 in the third. Those are the runs that took Missouri out of each of the games. Cunningham needs to start strong in each half to keep the Tigers in it against Mississippi State.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Mississippi State is undefeated in conference play for a reason. The Bulldogs are the most complete team in the SEC and McCowan is fantastic on both sides of the floor. This is an opportunity to evaluate Missouri against one of the nation’s best teams. Mississippi State is outscoring opponents by 24.5 points per game in conference play. The matchup between McCowan and Porter will be especially interesting to watch. Porter is coming off a season-high 15 points against Vanderbilt and her ability in the post can provide another threat for Missouri down the stretch of the regular season.
Last season, McCowan finished with 17 points and 17 rebounds compared to Porter’s four points and six rebounds in the Bulldogs' 57-53 victory. The Tigers got 30 total points from Cunningham and junior Amber Smith. Missouri’s two leading scorers will likely have to combine for at least 45 on Thursday to achieve the upset.
This matchup will bring the No. 1 scoring offense and No.1 scoring defense in the SEC against each other. However, in the end, Mississippi State has too many options offensively and will slow Cunningham down.
Prediction: Mississippi State 76, Missouri 64
Player of the game: McCowan picks up where she left off last season. She drops 23 points and grabs 16 rebounds in a Bulldog win.
