Prior to each Mizzou hoops game this season, we will get Tiger fans set with The Starting Five. In this feature, we'll give you the anticipated starting lineups for each team, break down keys to a Missouri win and offer up a prediction.
Here is the breakdown of tonight's game against Vanderbilt.
OFF THE BENCH: We listed Mark Smith as a starter, because if he is active he will surely get a spot in the starting lineup, but the shooting guard will likely be a game-time decision. Smith has missed the last three games due to an ankle injury. If he cannot play, freshman guard Xavier Pinson will likely start in his place. Walk-on Ronnie Suggs would likely also see an uptick in minutes. After a strong first half against Auburn, Torrence Watson could also be in the running to see increased court time. Watson scored 10 points, all in the first half, reaching double-digits for the first time since Dec. 7. While we listed K.J. Santos as a starter — he started for the first time all season against Auburn — it wouldn't be a surprise to see Kevin Puryear reclaim the starting power forward spot, which he occupied for the first 18 games of the season. Puryear is averaging 7.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per game this season. Finally, Reed Nikko will replace Jeremiah Tilmon whenever he exits the floor.
OFF THE BENCH: Vanderbilt is rich with wing-type players, including senior Joe Toye, who is averaging 24.7 minutes per game off the bench. Toye averages 8.5 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. Matthew Moyer and Clevon Brown also fit that mold. Each player stands 6-foot-8 and plays about 14 minutes per game. Sophomore Maxwell Evans will back up Saben Lee at point guard.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
TIPOFF: 7:30 p.m.
LOCATION: Mizzou Arena
TELEVISION: SEC Network/WatchESPN
RADIO: The game will be broadcast on the Tiger Radio Network. For a list of affiliates, click here.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Value the ball
Finally, Missouri's backcourt gets a bit of a reprieve. After three games against Arkansas, LSU and Auburn, all of which rank in the top 50 nationally in turnovers forced, Missouri gets an opponent that doesn't like to pressure opposing guards. All of that is to say, this shouldn't be a matchup in which Missouri turns the ball over 15-plus times, but we're still including it as a key because turnovers have been Missouri's biggest weakness this season. The Tigers rank No. 322 nationally in turnovers rate. If Missouri turns the ball over more times than Vanderbilt, it could be in trouble.
2. Don't hack
Vanderbilt has shown to be fairly limited offensively this season, but one area in which the Commodores excel is getting to the free throw line. Vanderbilt is tied for 12th nationally in free throws attempted per game (24.9) and No. 23 in free throws made (17.0). Missouri, meanwhile, has gotten foul-happy at times this season. The Tigers have recorded a foul on 29.1 percent of opponent possessions this season. That ranks No. 331 nationally. As usual, keeping Tilmon out of foul trouble against Vanderbilt's array of post weapons will be the top concern, but the entire Tiger team will look to avoid giving the Commodores easy points at the free throw line.
3. Get more from the four
Against Auburn, Missouri played three players — Puryear, Santos and Mitchell Smith — at the power forward spot. Those three players combined to record two points and seven rebounds in 37 total minutes. That isn't going to cut it at a position that Cuonzo Martin has called the most important to his offensive system. Martin was clearly looking for a spark when he swapped Puryear for Santos in the starting lineup last game. It didn't work, as Santos played just six minutes. Maybe this time he gives Smith a shot, or maybe he just rolls with Puryear. We'll see. But against a Vanderbilt team that is strongest in the post, Missouri needs a better contribution from its power forwards.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This might be the most winnable game left on Missouri's schedule. Due to its lack of athletic guards, Vanderbilt is actually a favorable matchup for the Tigers. (Plus, it's the annual Rally for Rhyan fundraiser game, and Missouri is undefeated in those games.) After losing three games in a row and six of its last seven, the Tigers need this win. If Missouri takes care of the ball and avoids giving Vanderbilt easy points in transition or at the free throw line, it should be the more talented team, even without Mark Smith. But the gap is not big enough for the Tigers to sleepwalk through this one and come out on top.
Prediction: Missouri 68, Vanderbilt 62
Player of the Game: With Mark Smith either out or limited, Jordan Geist takes on a larger offensive role once again and finishes with 17 points.
