Published Sep 25, 2020
The Ultimate Preview: Mizzou vs. Alabama
Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
Staff
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@mitchell4d

After months of uncertainty, we’ve finally made it to the first Missouri football-game-eve of the 2020 season and the beginning of the Eli Drinkwitz era. And what a way for Drinkwitz to start. Missouri will host No. 2 Alabama Saturday night on ESPN.

The Crimson Tide are coming off a disappointing 2019 season, by their standards, in which they failed to appear in the College Football Playoff for the first time since its inception in 2014. Missouri, meanwhile, fired Barry Odom after a 6-6 campaign that saw its offense collapse down the stretch. The Tigers enter this season surrounded by mystery, with a new offensive scheme, a new starting quarterback and a depleted roster. Saturday should start to provide some answers.

Here’s all the information you need to get set for the matchup.

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Kickoff Information

Time: 6 p.m.

Location: Faurot Field, Columbia, MO

TV: ESPN (Sean McDonough, Todd Blackledge, Allison Williams, Todd McShay)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)

Spread: Alabama -27.5

Series history: Alabama leads 4-2

Last meeting: Alabama won 39-10 on Oct. 13, 2018

The Matchups

When Missouri has the ball:

We really do not know what to expect out of this Missouri offense. Drinkwitz has declined to reveal whether TCU transfer Shawn Robinson or redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak will start at quarterback, although he did say it’s possible we see both players Saturday. The Tigers will debut two new starters at wide receiver in graduate transfers Damon Hazelton and Keke Chism. And the offensive line is perhaps the biggest question mark on the roster. The Tigers lost three multi-year starters up front from a season ago and Drinkwitz said the line has been hit hard with injuries and COVID-19 quarantines during the leadup to the season. According to the team’s first depth chart, it still has not decided on a starter at left tackle.

Alabama, meanwhile, will look to improve on its worst statistical defensive season since 2007. The Tide will get 2018 All-American Dylan Moses back at middle linebacker, which should help. Moses missed all of last season with a torn ACL. Nick Saban will hope he bolsters a run defense that allowed 137.1 yards per game on the ground last season, seventh-most in the SEC. The strength of Alabama’s defense should be its secondary, with Patrick Surtain II and Josh Jobe representing possibly the best cornerback duo in the SEC.

Clearly, the game plan for Missouri will be to run the ball early and often with Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie. Once the Tigers get the ground game established, they can try to take some downfield shots in the passing game. The question will be whether the offensive line can create enough room for the two tailbacks to run. Given the uncertainty at offensive line and quarterback, look for the passing game to consist of lots of screen passes and quick-hitting patterns.

ADVANTAGE: Alabama

When Alabama has the ball:

Hopes are high for the Missouri defense in 2020, and rightfully so. The Tigers bring back several key pieces, including star linebacker Nick Bolton, from a unit that ranked 14th nationally in total defense in 2019. Perhaps most important, Drinkwitz retained defensive coordinator Ryan Walters as well as assistants Brick Haley and David Gibbs after he got the head job. Missouri ranked 31st nationally against the run last season, although the run defense got a lot better after a season-opening loss at Wyoming, allowing 132.8 yards per game on the ground. It ranked sixth against the pass, surrendering fewer than 180 yards per game through the air.

Alabama, however, is a significantly tougher test than Missouri faced all of last season. The Crimson Tide ranked second nationally in scoring last season, third in passing and sixth in total offense. Speaking to reporters this week, Walters cast his vote for DeVonta Smith as the best wide receiver in the country (although fellow wideout Jaylen Waddle might not be far behind) and also said tailback Najee Harris is one of the best in the nation at his position, too. Alabama will no longer have Tua Tagovailoa behind center, but new starter Mac Jones looked solid in relief of Tagovailoa last season. In his three games as the starter, he averaged 312.3 yards per game, throwing 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. And, as always, he’ll work behind a monstrous offensive line. All five of the Tide’s starters up front made it onto one of the media’s three preseason all-SEC teams.

For Missouri, finishing off tackles against Harris will be key. But the bigger question will likely be whether the Tigers can slow down the duo of Smith and Waddle. Missouri lost its two most experienced cornerbacks from the roster during the offseason, and while the staff has been high on the team’s young cornerbacks, this will represent a massive jump in competition for true freshman starter Ennis Rakestraw. It would help if the Tigers are able to generate some pressure on Jones to reduce the burden on the secondary, but how well Missouri’s front four can rush the passer without defensive tackle Jordan Elliott remains to be seen.

ADVANTAGE: Alabama

Special teams

Missouri will be debuting two new faces in the kicking game this week, with graduate transfer Grant McKinniss starting at punter and true freshman Harrison Mevis taking over as placekicker. Drinkwitz said Wednesday that the team has some “availability issues” at long-snapper, presumably due to COVID-19 quarantines, but special teams coordinator Erik Link later told reporters the team still has “a couple guys who have been doing it for a long time.”

The primary special teams concern when facing Alabama is making sure Waddle doesn’t get loose in the return game. Waddle led the nation in punt return average last season and returned both a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns. He has two punt return touchdowns in his career. Don’t be surprised if Missouri tries to kick away from him, especially on punts. In the kicking game, Alabama may struggle a bit (a familiar storyline). The Tide will return both of its placekickers who saw action last year in Will Reichard and Joseph Bulovas, but both kickers had their struggles, combining to make 12 of 18 field goals on the season.

ADVANTAGE: Alabama

Missouri's keys to the game

1. Win the turnover battle.

In his press conference this week, Drinkwitz noted Alabama’s prodigious ability to take the ball away from opponents last season. The Tide ranked third nationally in turnover margin and tied for fourth in takeaways, with 28 in 14 games. One sure way that this game could go south for the Tigers in a hurry is if the offense gives Alabama easy scoring opportunities through turnovers. On the flip side, however, if the Missouri defense is able to provide the offense a short field once or twice, maybe the Tigers can score enough points to keep this one interesting.

2. Hold your own in the trenches.

Expectations are certainly not high for the Missouri offensive line in this one, but if Missouri is going to be able to move the ball, the line has to be able to open up enough room for Rountree and Badie to run the ball. Also, looking past this week, it would not be ideal if the quarterbacks are getting hit every other dropback. On the other side of the ball, Missouri needs its defensive front to make enough plays in the running game that it can use its safeties primarily in coverage, rather than putting Rakestraw and fellow corner Jarvis Ware on islands against Smith and Waddle all night.

3. Don’t give up the home run plays.

Last time Missouri played Alabama, it took all of two plays for Tagovailoa to connect with wideout Jerry Jeudy for an 81-yard touchdown. If that’s how Saturday’s game starts, it’s going to be a long night for Missouri. Realistically, the best-case scenario for the Tigers is probably not to win this game, but just keep it entertaining for a little while, make Alabama work for it. Given the expected learning curve on the offensive side of the ball, a couple long scoring strikes (or kick returns) could put this out of reach in a hurry. The Crimson Tide excelled at doing so the past few seasons — they had 96 plays go for 20 or more yards a season ago and 101 in 2018 — although Tagovailoa, Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III certainly accounted for a lot of those.

Numbers to Know

27.3: Average margin of victory for Alabama in their last eight season-opening games against Power Five opponents

18: Alabama’s current win streak against SEC East opponents. It’s last loss against an East team came nearly 10 years ago: Oct. 9, 2010 at South Carolina.

14: Missouri's current win streak in home openers. Only once in that span has a home opener come against a Power Five opponent (last year vs. West Virginia) and never have the Tigers opened at home against a ranked team.

12: The number of consecutive seasons in which Alabama has been ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll at some point during the year.

47.2: Alabama’s scoring average last season, the highest for a season in school history.

3.48: Missouri’s yardage per play the last time it played Alabama, in 2018. Only one other time since the 2015 season has Missouri dipped beneath 3.5 yards per play.

PowerMizzou predictions

Mitchell Forde: Obviously, there are a ton of unknowns entering this game. But if there’s one iron-clad rule in college football that I believe can survive 2020, it’s Nick Saban and Alabama dominating season-openers. The Crimson Tide are simply more talented and more experienced. Maybe Missouri can keep that offense at bay for two quarters and make it interesting, but at some point Alabama will pull away. Alabama 41, Missouri 14.

Gabe DeArmond: I'd love to be able to give you a reason I think the line is dumb. But other than "it's a weird offseason and weird things are going to happen somewhere," I can't come up with one. I just can't find a scenario where Missouri is able to move the ball against the Tide. I don't think Mizzou can score more than a couple times without the defense or special teams doing so. I see something along the lines of 38-10 Alabama.