The Ultimate Preview: Mizzou vs. Kentucky

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Missouri got an unexpected bye last weekend due to a COVID-19 outbreak on Vanderbilt's team. Now, the Tigers will take the field for the first time since upsetting defending national champion LSU — but not against Florida, its scheduled opponent. Instead, Missouri will host Kentucky. New head coach Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers will look to beat the Wildcats for the first time since 2014.

Here’s all the information you need to get set for the matchup.

Time: 3 p.m.

Location: Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri

TV: SEC Network (Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, Dawn Davenport)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)

Spread: Kentucky -5.5

Series history: Kentucky leads 7-3

Last meeting: Kentucky won 29-7 last season

When Missouri has the ball:

Redshirt freshman quarterback Connor Bazelak drew some high praise for his performance against LSU, and deservedly so. In his first start of the season, Bazelak completed 29 of 34 pass attempts for 406 yards and four touchdowns, looking like a player who could start behind center for Missouri for a long time.

That said, Kentucky's opportunistic defense should pose a significantly tougher threat than LSU's disorganized secondary. The Wildcats have feasted on the mistakes of opposing quarterbacks the past two weeks, intercepting nine passes over the past two games. They've allowed just seven offensive points and no passing touchdowns over that span. The Wildcat defense has been led by linebacker Jamin Davis, who leads the team in tackles and has two Interceptions on the season. Cornerback Kelvin Joseph has two picks as well. The big key for Bazelak will simply be taking care of the ball. Drinkwitz acknowledged this week that Kentucky will present more unique defensive looks than Bazelak has seen before in his young career, so he'll need to be wise in picking his spots to try to throw downfield.

If Bazelak can do that, Kentucky might actually be susceptible to Missouri's rushing attack. Tennessee ran for 175 yards against the Wildcats last week despite playing from behind for much of the game. Missouri has run the ball effectively the past two games, and particularly against LSU, when senior tailback Larry Rountree III gained 119 yards on the ground. The Tiger offense is at its best when it uses Rountree and the running game to set up its passing attack.

ADVANTAGE: Draw

When Kentucky has the ball:

The big question for Missouri's defense: Which run defense is going to show up? The Tigers got absolutely gashed on the ground against Tennessee in Week Two, surrendering 232 yards rushing. Despite being shorthanded on the defensive line, they bounced back In a big way against LSU, which gained just 49 yards on 20 carries.

Everyone knows Kentucky is going to run the ball early and often, but stopping that ground game is another matter. The Wildcats ran for 297 yards while attempting just eight passes against Missouri last season. This year, they are averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game this season (although that number is a bit inflated by a 408-yard outburst against Mississippi's porous defense). Their rushing attack is two-pronged, featuring both tailbacks A.J. Rose and Christopher Rodriguez as well as quarterback Terry Wilson, and is anchored by a perennially solid offensive line. With defensive tackles Kobie Whiteside and Darius Robinson both expected to miss this game, Missouri's front four will have its work cut out slowing Kentucky down on the ground.

If Missouri is able to contain the run, however, it should have favorable matchups against the Wildcat passing attack. For the most part, when Wilson has had to try to be a dropback passer, he's struggled. He's thrown nine interceptions compared to 16 touchdowns in his college career.

ADVANTAGE: Kentucky

Special teams

It's not very often that a punter can accurately be called a weapon, but Kentucky's Max Duffy qualifies. Missouri got to see that firsthand last season, as Duffy averaged 52.4 yards per punt and also ran for a first down on a fake. So far this year, Duffy ranks third nationally in punting average. In fact, Missouri owes its current punter to Duffy's dominance, as Grant McKinniss joined the team as a graduate transfer because Duffy beat him out. The Tigers, meanwhile, has had major issues fielding punts, with three muffs through the first three games. The Tigers likely can't afford to give up a short field with another muff in this lower-scoring contest.

Missouri should have a slight edge in the kicking game, at least. True freshman placekicker Harrison Mevis has been brilliant through three games, making five of his six field goal attempts, including two 50-plus yarders, as well as all seven of his extra points. Kentucky's Matt Ruffolo has made three of four field goals and 13 of 14 PATs.

ADVANTAGE: Kentucky

1. Take care of the ball.

With a quick look at the stat sheet, it's not hard to see how Kentucky went from losing its first two games of the season, against Auburn and Ole Miss, to blowing out both Mississippi State and Tennessee. In their first two contests, the Wildcats lost four turnovers and didn't take the ball away. The past two games, they've recorded nine takeaways while turning the ball over just twice. Missouri has struggled in the turnover department, giving the ball away five times this season and forcing just one turnover, which came with Alabama's backup quarterback In the game. Even before Drinkwitz knew Missouri would play Kentucky this week, he said improving those turnover numbers would be a focus entering last week's bye. That will now be extra important, as this doesn't figure to be an especially high-scoring contest, so a short field could go a long way for either team.

2. Stop the run.

Once again, this is easier said than done against Kentucky. The Wildcats lead the SEC both in rushing offense and in rush yards before contact. Their 84-yard rushing performance against Mississippi State in Week Three was the first time they've been held under 100 yards on the ground in nearly two years. Wilson is a capable enough passer to complete downfield passes if opponents completely sell out to stop the run, but if I'm defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, given the opponent and the fact that Missouri had no answer for Tennessee's offensive line, I'd still do everything possible to slow down the ground game and take my chances with Wilson winning through the air.

3. Start fast.

Missouri trailed by multiple touchdowns before it scored its first points in each of the first two games this season. Against LSU, the Tigers scored on a flea-flicker to start the game, and afterwards, players and coaches alike acknowledged the importance of gaining momentum with an early touchdown. Doing so again will be extra important this week because Kentucky is built to play from ahead. The Wildcat ground game can kill the clock (Kentucky ranks No. 16 nationally in time of possession) and their defense has proved adept at forcing opposing quarterbacks into mistakes if they knows they're going to throw. Spot Kentucky an early two-touchdown lead like Missouri did against Tennessee and Alabama, and the game is as good as over.

5: The number of consecutive wins by Kentucky in this annual series.

85.3: The completion percentage for Connor Bazelak against LSU, the highest-ever single game mark for a Missouri quarterback against an FBS opponent.

180: Yards needed for Larry Rountree III to become Missouri's all-time leading rusher among tailbacks. Rountree surpassed the 3,000-yard mark for his career against LSU.

65: The percentage of plays on which Kentucky has run the ball this season. For reference, Missouri has run on 51 percent of snaps.

9: The number of interceptions across the past two games for Kentucky. Also the difference In turnover margin between the two teams this season, with the Wildcats at plus-4 Missouri at minus-5.

Mitchell Forde: Missouri is capable of winning this game. But there's a few things I need to see the Tigers replicate before I'm willing to predict it. I think the biggest question mark is the run defense. Kentucky's offensive line may not be quite as talented as Tennessee's or Alabama's, but it isn't far behind, either, and those two teams were able to run the ball at will against a defensive front that was more healthy than this one. Plus, as brilliantly as Bazelak played against LSU, I'm still curious to see how much of that was him and the Tiger wide receivers making plays and how much can be attributed to LSU's secondary imploding. Ultimately, I think Kentucky is at least slightly better on both lines of scrimmage, and it's difficult to win an SEC game when that is the case. Kentucky 24, Missouri 20.

Gabe DeArmond: You've got to either have an incredible amount of faith or simply think history means nothing to pick Missouri to win this game. I think Missouri is good enough to win this game if it plays well and hangs on to the ball. That said, one thing has been consistent about the Tigers the last five years: They've found new and maddening ways to lose to Kentucky. I know it's a new staff and a lot of new players and I think it's very possible they reverse that trend. But I don't think I can pick it until I see it. Kentucky 23, Missouri 20.