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Published Oct 9, 2020
The Ultimate Preview: Mizzou vs. LSU
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Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
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As if 2020 hasn't been strange enough, Missouri will technically be the road team at Faurot Field on Saturday. The team's matchup against LSU, previously scheduled to be played in Baton Rouge at 8 p.m., has been moved to Columbia and rescheduled for 11 a.m. Oh, and Eli Drinkwitz dropped the news Thursday evening that seven Missouri players will be in quarantine and miss the matchup due to a positive COVID-19 tests. It’s not yet known which players will be absent.

What hasn't changed is the challenge posed by the defending national champs, who lost a lot from last season but still feature plenty of talent. Here’s all the information you need to get set for the matchup.

Kickoff Information

Time: 11 a.m.

Location: Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri

TV: SEC Network Alternate (Dave Flemming, Rod Gilmore, Quint Kessenich)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)

Spread: LSU -14.5

Series history: Tied 1-1

Last meeting: LSU won 42-7 in Baton Rouge in 2016

The Matchups

When Missouri has the ball:

For the first time this season, Missouri is entering a game with one player listed as the starting quarterback. Redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak spurred the offense to life when he replaced Shawn Robinson during the second quarter of last week's loss, and as a result he will make the second start of his college career when the defending champs come to town. Bazelak has shown some impressive flashes and also shown his inexperience at times, but he has looked like a much more effective downfield passer than Robinson, which appears to be the best way to beat LSU's defense. Mississippi State torched LSU with 623 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air in Week One, although LSU was without superstar cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. for the game. Bazelak completed 13 of 21 passes for 218 yards against Tennessee, with four of those incompletions resulting from drops.

On paper, LSU looks to be strong against the run, although that might have more to do with the teams it has played than anything else. Mississippi State didn't even try to run the ball, gaining nine yards on 16 attempts. Vanderbilt was a bit more effective with 153 yards on 43 carries. Look for Missouri to try to get the ground game with Larry Rountree III going early and often. Rountree has averaged 4.7 yards per carry across Missouri's first two games, and Drinkwitz has come out of each saying he should have given him more carries. If the Tigers can get Rountree established, that would make it easier for Bazelak to find some open receivers downfield and should slow down the LSU pass rush, which has eight sacks across its first two games. Even if Missouri can get its rushing game going, however, its wideouts will need to do a better job than we've seen during the first two games, both at getting separation and catching the ball. According to Pro Football Focus, the Tigers have 10 drops through the first two games.

ADVANTAGE: LSU

When LSU has the ball:

From a personnel standpoint, this LSU offense hardly resembles the one that re-wrote the NCAA record books last season. But it still has plenty of talent and utilizes some of the same concepts that made the 2019 team successful. Senior quarterback Myles Brennan has already thrown the ball 83 times through two games, completing 50 passes for 682 yards and seven touchdowns. Despite the loss of Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase at wide receiver, Brennan still has a likely future NFL wideout to throw to in Terrance Marshall Jr., plus a matchup nightmare in tight end Arik Gilbert. The true freshman became the first tight end ever to win the Gatorade Player of the Year award In 2019, given to the best high school football player In the country. LSU struggled to run the ball against Mississippi State but looked better on the ground against Vanderbilt, when it averaged just over five yards per carry.

The first priority for the Missouri defense will be to stop the run. Missouri got gashed on the ground against Tennessee, giving up 233 rushing yards, which allowed quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to pretty much play a stress-free game. Drinkwitz predicted Tuesday that, after watching the film from last week, LSU would try to do the same thing. He noted that a lot of the defense's issues came when Tennessee sped up the tempo, something LSU likes to do as well, so that will be something to keep an eye on.

If Missouri is able to hold Its own up front, this matchup will test the team's secondary, especially its young cornerbacks. The good news is that junior Jarvis Ware seems likely to suit up after he missed the last game due to a knee injury, but that will still leave true freshman Ennis Rakestraw and redshirt freshman Ishmael Burdine to play plenty of snaps. Plus, sophomore Martez Manuel will likely draw the assignment of covering Gilbert. All three of those players have looked solid so far, but it will be important for Missouri to help them out by confusing Brennan with its defensive formations and not giving him too much time in the pocket.

ADVANTAGE: LSU

Special teams

Missouri kicker Harrison Mevis has looked great through the first two games of his college career, nailing all four of his field goal tries, including a 50-yarder last week. But LSU may have an edge in the kicking game with sophomore Cade York, who is also four-of-four on the year with a long of 53 yards. York was money for LSU last season, making 21 of 27 field goals and all 12 of his attempts inside 40 yards. The return game could also be a factor Saturday, as LSU will use Stingley to return punts. Stingley gained 92 yards on three returns last week against Vanderbilt, which included 48-yarder.

ADVANTAGE: LSU

Missouri's keys to the game

1. Play better on the defensive front.

As mentioned above, Missouri has little chance in this game if it lets LSU run for five yards per carry then pick its spots to throw downfield off of play action. The front four needs to do a better job of clogging up running lanes. The fact that Nick Bolton had a career-high 17 tackles last week probably wasn't a good thing for the defense as a whole. If Missouri can slow down the run, the next job for the front four will be to pressure Brennan without having to send extra rushers. Brennan has feasted against the blitz this season, completing 16 of 24 passes for 254 yards, four touchdowns and no Interceptions when opponents send extra rushers. When faced with pressure from a defensive front, however, he's 11 of 22 with two touchdowns and a pick.

2. Capitalize on offensive opportunities.

Missouri moved the ball pretty well at times against both Alabama at Tennessee, yet it has just three touchdowns through eight quarters to show for it. Drinkwitz and his players said that has resulted from "self-inflicted wounds." Those errors will need to be cleaned up if the offense hopes to score enough to hang with LSU. The unit needs to convert red zone trips into touchdowns and take advantage of big-play opportunities when they arise. If Missouri needs a yard or two on third or fourth down, Rountree needs to get it. If a receiver comes open, Bazelak needs to deliver an accurate pass. If a defender gets behind the defense and a deep ball hits him in the hands, it needs to be caught. Fewer than 20 points almost surely won't be enough to win this one.

3. Get off to a better start.

In the first two weeks, Missouri has trailed by a combined score of 49-9 at halftime. The Tigers have yet to score a point In the first quarter. That's not a winning formula for an offense that isn't built to score points in a hurry. Falling behind early makes it harder to get Rountree the ball and puts extra pressure on a young quarterback and inexperienced offensive line. Perhaps the starting quarterback switch will help; Bazelak has yet to play a snap this season with the team trailing by fewer than two scores.

Numbers to Know

1985: The last time Missouri started a season 0-3, which would be the case if LSU wins Saturday. That season, the Tigers started the year 0-7 and finished 1-10 under the direction of Woody Widenhofer. This is also the first season the team has ever started the year by facing three straight ranked opponents.

25: Tackles by Nick Bolton this season, which ranks third in the SEC.

18: The number of departed starters — based on the 11 players each on offense and defense who played the most snaps last season — from LSU's 2019 roster.

6: The number of interceptions thrown by LSU quarterback Joe Burrow in 527 passing attempts last season. Also the number of interceptions thrown by Myles Brennan so far in his college career, on 153 attempts.

13: Receiving touchdowns for Terrance Marshall Jr. last season, which tied for the seventh-most in the country — yet ranked third on his own team.

56: The number of four- and five-star prospects signed by Ed Orgeron and LSU during the classes of 2017 through 2020, which should make up the bulk of the current roster. Missouri has signed four such players in the same period — three of which actually made it to campus, one of which is currently in the starting lineup.

PowerMizzou predictions

Mitchell Forde: Certainly this year has shown us that anything can happen. Maybe Brennan really struggles and throws four interceptions. Maybe the LSU players aren't real interested in playing at 11 a.m. when a hurricane is making landfall in Louisiana. At the same time, we don't know how badly Missouri is going to be hurt by having seven players in quarantine. The bottom line: If both teams play relatively well, I don't see how Missouri's offense can keep pace with LSU's. I think a realistic goal this week is to just not be down two scores early in the second quarter. LSU wins 33-13.

Gabe DeArmond: I know LSU isn't what LSU has been. But I also haven't seen anything out of Missouri that shows me it's ready to win a game like this. I think the defense is better than a week ago but I'm not sure the offense is. 27-10 LSU.

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