Had someone predicted in October that Missouri and Alabama would meet in February as the top two teams in the SEC standings, he or she likely would have drawn laughter. But that will be the case when the Crimson Tide come to Mizzou Arena for Saturday's showdown on ESPN.
Despite going just 5-4 in non-conference play, No. 10 Alabama has blitzed through its SEC schedule. The Tide are a perfect 10-0 in the conference, with seven of those victories coming by at least 10 points. They've earned headlines for their three-point shooting, three times this season making at least 15 triples in a single game, including an SEC-record 23 makes from behind the arc against LSU. But Alabama's defense might pose an even greater challenge than its shooting, as Nate Oats' team ranks third nationally in defensive efficiency. No. 18 Missouri, which has won five of its past six games, will look to pick up its third victory of the season over a team ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game.
Here's all the information you need to know to get set for the marquee matchup.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (12-3) vs Alabama (15-4)
WHEN: 11:00 a.m.
WHERE: Mizzou Arena
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Alabama leads 11-5
KenPom Prediction: Alabama 77-74
THE STARTING LINEUPS
BY THE NUMBERS
MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Play your own game. Alabama presents a unique challenge. The Crimson Tide attempt the most three-pointers among every high-major team in the country and play at the ninth-fastest tempo among all teams. It would be easy for Missouri to get caught up in trying to match Alabama in those areas, especially given the stakes of this matchup. But during his press conference Friday, Cuonzo Martin stressed the importance of Missouri playing its own game. Even though the Tigers have shot the ball better from three-point range the past few games, they still rank 12th in the SEC in three-point shooting percentage on the season, so getting into an outside shooting contest with Alabama would not be wise. And while the Tigers have shown an improved ability to play fast this year, it will be important not to get sped up. Alabama has been adept at forcing turnovers this season, particularly steals, and turning them into points in transition. Martin listed taking care of the ball as his top priority against Alabama's defense.
2. Don't let Alabama catch fire from three. For the most part this season, Alabama hasn't shot the deep ball much better than the average team. The Crimson Tide have made 35.5 percent of three-point attempts on the season, which ranks 93rd nationally. What stands out is the fact that they attempt nearly 30 shots from behind the arc per game. Given that the outside shot is such a big part of the Crimson Tide offense, Missouri needs to do all it can to not let them get into a rhythm from deep. Seven times this season, Alabama has shot at least 40 percent from three-point range in a game. The Tide have not only won all seven games, but won them by an average of 14.3 points. Alabama's playmakers can do more than just shoot — Martin said there might not be another team in the league with more players who can but the ball on the floor and score at the basket — so Missouri can't totally sell out to stop the three, but the Tigers will have to be okay with giving up the occasional layup if it means closing out on a three-point shooter. If Alabama gets hot from deep, this game likely won't be competitive.
3. Get to the free throw line. Alabama's shooting has generated more attention this season, but the biggest reason the Crimson Tide sit atop the SEC standings is actually the team's defense. Alabama ranks 53rd or better nationally in two-point defense, three-point defense and steal percentage. So, how do you go about attacking the Tide defense? Missouri needs to attack the basket, both with its guards and big man Jeremiah Tilmon, and get to the free throw line. Last season, that was one thing the Tigers did very well against Alabama, shooting 31 free throws (and making all 31) in the first meeting between the two teams and going 20-25 from the line in the second meeting. This season, Missouri has shot more free throws per game than any other team in the SEC. As potent as Alabama's offense has been, the Tide don't get to the free throw line very often, so that could be one area where Missouri finds an advantage.
POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION
Even though Alabama is still unbeaten in conference play, it has looked quite a bit more vulnerable lately. The Crimson Tide have actually made fewer three-pointers and shot a worse percentage from deep in their past three games than Missouri. They've also been minus-nine in the turnover column across their past two contests. The Tigers should have plenty of juice for this matchup, so we think they keep the game close, at a minimum. Ultimately, though, it's hard to pick against Alabama in an SEC game until it loses one. FINAL SCORE: Alabama 76, Missouri 70
