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Published Jan 2, 2021
Tiger Tipoff Preview: Arkansas
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Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
Staff
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@mitchell4d

Missouri suffered its first loss of the season at the hands of No. 7 Tennessee in the first game of the SEC play. The next test doesn't get a lot easier. Missouri travels to Arkansas to face the undefeated Razorbacks on Saturday. Arkansas kicked off conference play with a seven-point win at Auburn. Here's everything you need to know to get set for the matchup.

                                         TIP TIME INFORMATION

Missouri (6-1) vs. Arkansas (9-0)

WHEN: 11 a.m.

WHERE: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, Arkansas

TV: CBS

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Arkansas leads 28-25

KenPom Prediction: Arkansas 75-71

                                       THE STARTING LINEUPS

Arkansas Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Moses Moody

FR

6-6

16.8

5.7

1.8

Desi Sills

JR

6-1

14.1

4.1

2.4

Justin Smith

SR

6-7

11.6

7.1

1.0

Jalen Tate

FR

6-6

10.1

4.4

4.6

Connor Vanover

SO

7-3

9.6

7.3

0.6

Mizzou Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Dru Smith

SR

6-3

12.1

3.3

2.9

Mark Smith

SR

6-5

12.7

2.4

1.0

Xavier Pinson

JR

6-3

13.9

3.6

3.1

Jeremiah Tilmon

SR

6-10

8.3

7.3

0.9

Kobe Brown

SO

6-7

6.6

6.0

0.1

                                                  BY THE NUMBERS

Statistical Matchup
MizzouCategoryArkansas

71.9

PPG

90.8

66.4

PPG Allowed

64.2

43.8

Field Goal %

47.1

27.3

Three-Point %

34.6

+4.1

Rebound Margin

+11.8

13.7

Turnovers

11.6

67

Offensive Efficiency Rank

24

26

Defensive Efficiency Rank

42

189

Tempo

39

35

Strength of Schedule

284

                                        MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Make some outside shots. The glaring weakness for Missouri the past two games (and really the past two seasons) has been an inability to shoot from behind the three-point arc. In its last-second win over Bradley and loss to Tennessee, Missouri has made just six of 37 three-pointers. That has made the Tiger offense easy to guard: opponents can go under screens, sag off the perimeter and clog the lane. Arkansas appears to be well suited to employing the same strategy; the Razorbacks allow opponents to shoot 56.2 percent inside the three-point line, which is 34th-best in the nation. Led by 7-foot-3 center Connor Vanover, Arkansas ranks eighth nationally in block rate. Missouri desperately needs to knock down some three-pointers early in the game to open things up inside.

2. Take advantage of transition opportunities. Arkansas is averaging more than 90 points per game this season. The Razorbacks have scored at least 85 in four straight games. In short: Missouri is likely not going to be able to win this game in the 60s. The easiest way for the Tigers to get their struggling offense sparked would be to capitalize on fast break scoring opportunities, which should be plentiful. Arkansas' pace ranks among the top 40 teams nationally. Look for Missouri's guards to push the pace early and often, something we've seen the Tigers do a lot more this season. Keeping Arkansas from getting easy scores in transition will be equally important.

3. Take care of the ball. Missouri's offensive woes against Tennessee weren't limited to shots not falling. The Tigers turned the ball over a whopping 21 times, giving it away on more than 30 percent of possessions. The team needs to cut that number down quite a bit if it's going to be able to keep pace with Arkansas. The Razorbacks have been adept at getting steals and scoring off them this season — they rank 48th in the country in steal rate and scored 27 points off 18 turnovers against Auburn. The good news for Missouri is that Arkansas hasn't forced many turnovers aside from steals. Striking a balance between playing with pace and taking care of the ball will be critical for Missouri's backcourt.

                                     POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION

Until it proves it can hit outside shots with any regularity, Missouri's is an easy offense to defend right now. Given what we've seen so far this season, it doesn't feel wise to predict the three-pointers to suddenly start falling. Arkansas might be without Justin Smith, who suffered an ankle injury against Auburn, and we expect Missouri to start better than it did against Tennessee coming off its first loss, but it's tough to see how the Tigers can score enough to keep pace with Arkansas.

FINAL SCORE: Arkansas 76, Missouri 69

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